Brexit, an informed forecast of what will happen next

    

As BBC and Sky news channels debate this morning what will happen next, the Robert Peston, ITV programme of 4^th September 2019 contained interviews with Boris Johnson, John McDonnell and Ian Blackford and important commentaries on what they said by Dominic Grieve and Jess Phillips after the House of Commons refused to accept the General Election date of October 15th and passed the Bill seeking a further extension to avoid No deal.

A number of statements were made in the programme which coupled with what was said and observed during Prime Minister’s Question Time, what transpired to be the autumn election spending statement, consideration of the Stop No deal Bill and General Election Debate 12 a.m. to 10 p.m, which I believe makes clear the latest position and what will happen between now and Monday or even later, if the government holds off Prorogation 

All future measures presented Parliament by the Johnson government will be opposed and defeated, including the proposed Queens Speech, with the exception of an amendable legislative measure to abolish the Fixed Parliament Act which the government is likely to introduce if it is known the Commons will agree that the date of the General Election can be fixed without alteration after the October 17^th meeting of the EEC ministers and who in turn will have agreed an extension to enable this to happen, and in which instances the opposition parties (with the exception of the DUP) will campaign for any agreement, revocation, new agreement, and possibly no deal to be put to the people in a second referendum.

It is evident that all the Party leaders (and this may include the D.U.P) together with an increasing number of Conservatives in addition to the those effectively expelled, have concluded, or reinforced their view, that Mr Johnson is unfit to be Prime Minister and have agreed to do what is required to be rid of him. Part of the agreed plan is to also expose the role and behaviour of Dominic Cummings who has now been named by the opposition and several lading conservatives as the agent of Johnson’s plan.

This was brought out clearly with media interviews and speeches made in the Commons by the majority of those expelled with a number of powerful and emotional contributions by those have decided not to stand in the general election and those who will stand as independent conservatives, independents or for other parties. 

Last night Ken Clark in the General Election debate called Boris dishonest, saying one thing and doing another and all the other leaders said he was untrustworthy. The Speaker allowed one backbencher to remind the House that Johnson had been twice shown to be a liar and Jeremy Corbyn said in effect he was two faced, unscrupulous and lacking integrity. Jeremy has not once attacked back during he years of verbal assaults on his record and intentions, I thought something had fundamentally changed when Tony Blair advised Corbyn and the other Opposition parties not to agree the General Election and opened the door to campaigning for Labour in the General Election

 The Speaker told him Johnson abruptly and then politely to sit down, and also to use acceptable Parliamentary language and behaviour, and when Ken Clark drew attention that the Chancellor of the Exchequer was out of order when commencing his Party political election spending statement, the Speaker said he had accepted  the statement would take longer (45 mins) but told the Chancellor twice to stick to the terms of reference of the statement.

Secondly, the Opposition Parties and leading Tories not in the Government, understand that if Johnson is not stopped now, this will only be the start of his approach to stay in power insisting on complete obedience of all the members of his government, backbenchers and advisers and like Trump getting rid of anyone who opposes or appears disloyal.

Thirdly, he is already turning the Tory Party, not just into the Brexit Party to defeat Farage, but an ideological free market, low tax, and low welfare party despite the appearance of ending austerity in order to win his first General Election. It appears, unconfirmed, that the Chancellor’s proposed speech was rejected and one re written for him hence the marching out of No 10 but an armed policer man of one of the Chancellor’s official advisers.

All the Opposition political Parties with the exception of the DUP although there may informal communication between anti Boris Tories and individual member of the D.U.P have agreed that the only way to politically get rid of Boris is to defeat him a general election once the No deal legislation becomes law with the Royal assent. They have agreed that the general election should not take place until after the October 17^th Meeting of E.E.C leaders who they are confident will agree to extend article 50 to avoid a no deal Brexit. They accept this will involve the government seeking legislation to set aside the Fixed Term Parliament Act, but in a way which will be amendable so that the date can be determined by the House of Commons following agreement between all the Party Leaders. They appear confident the EEC will agree to the extension and which may be extended further to cover for the proposed second referendum.

I am confident that all the Opposition parties have agreed that they will campaign in the general election to hold a second referendum with a commitment to implement whatever is decided and this includes the Tory “rebels”. 

The next bit is speculation on my part but there may even be agreement between the Parties for election pacts because of the likely Remain vote split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It has been agreed that if the Labour Party is the biggest party in a situation where they do not have an overall majority (possible even if they do have a majority, they will accept a request to hold a second Scottish Referendum although the Party will campaign for the Union.

It was also evident that Jo Swinson has been on a Leader’s training course and was impressive at PMQ’s and the General Election debate.

Several of the Tory rebels made it clear they oppose and want to stop a Jeremy Corbyn and  McDonnell government, but the SNP and Lib Dems had stopped attacking Jeremy Corbyn, and Jo Swinson has clarified than in saying Ken Clark and Harriet Harman should lead an interim government this was said on the basis the Jeremy would not as things stood be able to form a minority government but this many have changed after Tony Blair endorsed the changed position and all the Labour rebels except John Mann and Kate Hoey voted for the stop no deal Bill.