On Tuesday August 29th,
2019 Jeremy Corbyn leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons and of the
Labour Party, together with the Opposition Leader in the House of Commons, Valery
Vaz, Labour negotiators on Brexit John McDonnell and Sir Keir Starmer met with
the leaders of the Scottish National
Party, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the Independent Group
for change, having previously consulted Conservative Parliamentarians and by
the end of the two hour meeting agreed a two stage approach to prevent a no
deal Brexit on October 30th.
The first agreed approach to
prevent exiting the EEC without a deal is through the second use of Standing Order 24 on Tuesday
September 3rd about 4pm after the scheduled Foreign and Commonwealth
Office Questions, the introduction of a ten minute rule Bill and a plethora of
Points of Order questions by backbenchers sympathetic to the government to
introduced a Bill to force the Prime Minister to formally ask for another
extension to Article 50 if No deal is the only other option.
The Bill similar in wording to
that previously presented by Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin and is expected to
gain a greater margin of approval in the House of Commons because of the number
of supporting members of the Tory Party. The potential obstacle is the House of
Lords which previously prolonged consideration through filibustering and where
the expectation is that the attempt will made to prevent the bill passing in
both Houses as required before the planned three week break for the Liberal
Democrat, Labour and Conservative Annual Party Conferences. There were reserve
plans to continue the session through the Conference season or limit the
conference absences to three or four days each week
The planned response of the
Government yesterday is designed to make this difficult and create longer term
and a potential election winning advantage. This led to immediate opposition on
the streets, with more promised, cries of foul and two legal challenges.
The tactic is to reduce the
time for the Parliamentary time for the legislation but not prorogue Parliament
until Nov 1st which would have forced ministerial resignations and
made no deal definite.
The Government plan is to thwart
any attempt to take No deal off the negotiating table and force the ECC to compromise
with a deal which pass Parliament on the basis that there are only 100 Tories
who want no deal even if the back stop is removed and 100 hard core labour who
want revocation and will not accept a comprise. There is therefore a majority
likely to be in favour of a compromise, possibly Mrs May’s deal if the alternative
is no deal, End the means that if necessary Mrs May’s deal can be reconsidered
and also paves the way for electing a new Speaker or threatening to do so
before a General Election.
The other problem is Mrs May
agreed to act on the new law, Boris may find a legal way not to. The ECC will also have to agree an extension
which Macron in particular said he would not support. The EEC is only likely to
agree a limited extension to get the implementation legislation through Parliament
which may require losing/ replacing about 100 of the existing members of the
Commons.
A general election was on the cards
if there is no deal or a deal, given the latest Polls. The Brexit party has
offered the Tory Party a deal not to stand against them in agreed seat if they
deselect about 40 to 50 exist anti Brexit MP’s presumably given them the seats
and a confidence and supply agreement if necessary.
The Opposition approach has been
to put off the no confidence vote because Tory members won’t bring down the
government unless it is the only last resort, and other opposition parties and
many Labour back benchers know that Corbyn would gain election advantage if he
becomes temporary Prime Minister and stops No Deal. He has not ruled out the idea of
an all Party temporary coalition led by Clark and Harriet Harman in their
capacities of the recognised Father and Mother of the House of Commons, who
have both held Ministerial offices and command respect in respective Parties.
Boris knows that he could win
a General Election based on a Government on behalf of the people versus the
Commons. Corbyn’s team know they have to also deselect at least 50 existing
members if they are to command loyalty when in Government.
Boris also knows that serious disorder
on the streets will be sufficient to declare a state of emergency and this may already
have been agreed with the Head of State.
Trump may have offered to use US resources including off the books
resources to monitor ant Brexit Parliamentarians and others individuals of influence.
Any state of emergency will enable the government to control the media, including
social media.
