Avoid a state of emergency reaction to suspension of Parlianment over No Deal Brexit

On Tuesday August 29^th, 2019 Jeremy Corbyn leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons and of the Labour Party, together with the Opposition Leader in the House of Commons, Valery Vaz, Labour negotiators on Brexit John McDonnell and Sir Keir Starmer met with the leaders of  the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the Independent Group for change, having previously consulted Conservative Parliamentarians and by the end of the two hour meeting agreed a two stage approach to prevent a no deal Brexit on October 30^th. 

The first agreed approach to prevent exiting the EEC without a deal is through  the second use of Standing Order 24 on Tuesday September 3^rd about 4pm after the scheduled Foreign and Commonwealth Office Questions, the introduction of a ten minute rule Bill and a plethora of Points of Order questions by backbenchers sympathetic to the government to introduced a Bill to force the Prime Minister to formally ask for another extension to Article 50 if No deal is the only other option. 

The Bill similar in wording to that previously presented by Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin and is expected to gain a greater margin of approval in the House of Commons because of the number of supporting members of the Tory Party. The potential obstacle is the House of Lords which previously prolonged consideration through filibustering and where the expectation is that the attempt will made to prevent the bill passing in both Houses as required before the planned three week break for the Liberal Democrat, Labour and Conservative Annual Party Conferences. There were reserve plans to continue the session through the Conference season or limit the conference absences to three or four days each week

The planned response of the Government yesterday is designed to make this difficult and create longer term and a potential election winning advantage. This led to immediate opposition on the streets, with more promised, cries of foul and two legal challenges.

The tactic is to reduce the time for the Parliamentary time for the legislation but not prorogue Parliament until Nov 1^st which would have forced ministerial resignations and made no deal definite. 

The Government plan is to thwart any attempt to take No deal off the negotiating table and force the ECC to compromise with a deal which pass Parliament on the basis that there are only 100 Tories who want no deal even if the back stop is removed and 100 hard core labour who want revocation and will not accept a comprise. There is therefore a majority likely to be in favour of a compromise, possibly Mrs May’s deal if the alternative is no deal, End the means that if necessary Mrs May’s deal can be reconsidered and also paves the way for electing a new Speaker or threatening to do so before a General Election.

The other problem is Mrs May agreed to act on the new law, Boris may find a legal way not to.  The ECC will also have to agree an extension which Macron in particular said he would not support. The EEC is only likely to agree a limited extension to get the implementation legislation through Parliament which may require losing/ replacing about 100 of the existing members of the Commons.

A general election was on the cards if there is no deal or a deal, given the latest Polls. The Brexit party has offered the Tory Party a deal not to stand against them in agreed seat if they deselect about 40 to 50 exist anti Brexit MP’s presumably given them the seats and a confidence and supply agreement if necessary.

The Opposition approach has been to put off the no confidence vote because Tory members won’t bring down the government unless it is the only last resort, and other opposition parties and many Labour back benchers know that Corbyn would gain election advantage if he becomes temporary Prime Minister and stops No Deal. He has not ruled out the idea of an all Party temporary coalition led by Clark and Harriet Harman in their capacities of the recognised Father and Mother of the House of Commons, who have both held Ministerial offices and command respect in respective Parties.

Boris knows that he could win a General Election based on a Government on behalf of the people versus the Commons. Corbyn’s team know they have to also deselect at least 50 existing members if they are to command loyalty when in Government.

Boris also knows that serious disorder on the streets will be sufficient to declare a state of emergency and this may already have been agreed with the Head of State.  Trump may have offered to use US resources including off the books resources to monitor ant Brexit Parliamentarians and others individuals of influence. Any state of emergency will enable the government to control the media, including social media.