A very British political revolution

Yesterday’s events in the House of Commons were of profound and lasting political significance but predicting the outcome is not possible. The House of Commons has been divided into four groups. Those who want to leave all the European political, financial and commercial bodies without the present negotiation deal and transition arrangements; those who want to negotiate new arrangements based on the present negotiated withdrawal agreement; those who are prepared to leave but only if a softer Brexit is guaranteed; and those who want to Remain full members revoking Article 50.

By the time the voting ended last night I was so tired after seven hours of television watching that I had to go to bed. This means I have been able to digest the significance of such a major defeat for the government and where the former Business Minister explained on Sky this morning his continuing concern that May will yield to the pressure for a no deal Brexit by the UDP and the Moggies. Nigel Evans, who is the secretary of the 1922 Backbench committee was so furious in the Commons last night that he lost control, as did Speaker John Bercow in his excitement at the scale of the Government’s defeat. 

I thought the most significant single development was the resignation of Alistair Burt who was the most humane and humble of Ministers at the Foreign office who is highly regarded throughout the world, especially in the Middle East for trying to get common sense rational solutions.

As far as it is possible for anyone to predict what will now happen my view is which of the three Tory groupings now gains or takes power. The first is the Nigel Evans led group who want the UDP and  Moggies to now support May’s deal on the basis that she will immediately resign afterwards, and for the Tory  Membership to elect a new leader and team to manage the negotiations for in effect a hard Brexit, with a General Election to change the composition of the House of Commons if there is difficulty in getting their approach through. There appears to be about 100 plus Tories in support.

At present the UDP will not go along with this, but the first indication that at least the head of Moggies may do so comes with a Tweet that consideration is being given to prevent any Brexit compromise regarding future relations. There are about 100 Tory Members of the Commons who appear prepared to support the no deal option but may accept that if combined, the two groups about 200, can control the Prime Minister and the future direction of Tory Policy.

This leaves about 80 Tory members, including perhaps 30-40 government Ministers or government team people who could support Brexit extension, participation in European Elections and a softer Brexit, or no Brexit. Combining with Opposition Parties there is therefore a good overall majority of 350-370 to 250-270 for a softer Brexit in the Commons. but only if the government members resign en bloc and support an ongoing formal takeover of the agenda until April 12.

Mrs May answered questions for two hours and I cannot remember anyone supporting her. No one on the Hard Brexit side spoke in the subsequent four hour debate where there were some great speeches including from Nicholas Soames. The tactic of May and the hard Brexiteers was to say nothing in this debate and work on winning the vote which failed.

Those who want a soft Brexit or no Brexit  have been embolden by the 1 million on the streets  of London on Saturday and the Revoke petition which is approaching  6 million  votes but if they are able to get a majority of the Commons  for a longer extension to achieve a soft Brexit  or no Brexit they will have to take control of the Commons again, perhaps for the remaining time before April 12^th to ensure that May is forced to ask for the extension which will involve contesting the European Elections which she has so far said she will not do. But she could yield on this to keep the Tory Government in Office and herself in power for a little longer.

It all could change if either group in the Cabinet force her to resign in the meantime.

There will now be a General before the scheduled date and more likely this year. If it is delayed there will be another attempt at removing Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Leader to halt the deselection of about half the Parliamentary Party if there is a managed General Election before the latest rule and procedure changes take effect.

At least we know the end of the beginning could be the 12^th, April.