Saturday 19 March 2011

2043 Libya offensive on behalf of revolutionaries

After I had retired to bed on Thursday evening 17th March 2011, having fought tiredness for a couple of hours, the Security Council of the United Nation called on an immediate ceasefire in Libya and that in order to ensure fighting should stop and that the population as able to call for the regime change, peacefully, member states, willing to do so, would impose a no fly zone and undertake such other measures, short of a providing ground troops. No country used their vetoes or voted against but five did abstain including China Russia and Germany. After some searching I found that India and Brazil also abstained and that the Lebanon, South Africa, Portugal, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Gabon. Nigeria and Columbia voting in favour. The action will therefore be effectively undertaken by Nato countries, with Italy providing important air space and France and the UK playing predominant roles with at first the United status providing logistic support.

The resolution came as the forces of Gaddafi appeared to have regained the coastal towns up to the borders with Benghazi and threatened to use air craft and tanks to regain control of the city in the event of the rebels failing to surrender and where amnesty was being offered. There were fireworks and other demonstrations of relief as news of the resolution reached the Libyan second city with its population of over one million. However this may be premature given the longevity of Gaddafi and the apparatus of power by terror and bribery he has developed over four decades with his sons and closest allies.

Earlier in the day I watched large parts of the debate on Foreign Affairs in the House of Commons which concentrated on events in North Africa and the Middle East. The point which was made time and time again is that is the failure to intervene and allow Gaddafi to regain full control of the country would reinforce the position of the other dictators in the region that they did not have to make changes to introduce democratic systems, allow freedom of expressions and other indicators of the broad democratic system of government and that they were free to ruthlessly stop the protests and persecute the activists as now appeared to be the situation in Bahrain with the intervention of troops from other countries. This is a point which concerned me greatly and I remembered situations in Hungary, in Bosnia, in Ruanda and elsewhere when the UN failed to intervene and hundreds of thousands of civilians perished.

I also appreciated the concern of those who feared that such a resolution could not be restricted to the situation in Libya and could equally be now said to be applied to Bahrain, and anywhere else should similar circumstances arise. No sooner writing this that 40 demonstrators were killed in Yemen with over 100 wounded. Later the government placed the country under a state of emergency and martial law saying that the gunman had not bee a member of the security forces. Clearly rogue states and dictatorship will learn the lessons of Al-Qaeda and of the insurgencies themselves however using guns and bombs rather than peaceful protests and the free speech. An undercurrent in the debate is the position of Israel and Palestine with severe critics of Israel’s disproportionate and intransigent approach with continuing settlement on the West bank in defiance of UN resolutions, the Labour side such as Gerald Kaufman and defenders of Israel by others on Labour and Conservative benches.

Gaddafi and his son having appeared on the media and threatened fire and brimstone if other countries intervened, threats which cannot be discounted as bluffing and bravado, the Foreign Minister said his country agreed to a ceasefire, would invite observers to establish the situation and respect the wishes of the United Nations, the spokesman also expressed disappointment at the action taken and that it was not justified. This quickly proved to be Weasel words and there was however no evidence of ceasefire in reality as the shelling of rebel held towns continued with troops advancing towards the second city.

While in France and the UK the official talk and media attempted to bring the people fully behind the action being taken there was caution in the voice oft he President of United States when he addressed the nation and it is understood within the armed forces their are reservations about the effectiveness of any action and the reality of likely support from other Arab nations and the African union. Egypt which might have been expected to have offered support has indicated the opposite.

On Saturday the French government is hoisting a meeting to be attended by the British Prime Minister, Hilary Clinton and other leaders or their representatives to review and coordinate the implementation of the action which despite several weeks of contingency planning will take time to organise the separate components into an effect command structure and to prepare air forces and naval units to conduct operations which are restricted to combatants. In Bosnia the problem is that both sides immediately disguised armour as that belonging to the Red Cross and to the UN to avoid aerial assault. The following 24 to 48 hours will be crucial as all sides prepare to engage in military action.

Meanwhile in Japan the efforts to prevent reactor meltdown appear to be failing with a rise in level of problem admitted to that equally what happened in the United States and closer to that in Russia where land some 30 miles around the site cannot be used. The lack of food, water, energy is also affecting the survivors and those evacuated although the death total is still comparative small compared to that in the far east where over 200000 people perished.


The situation in Libya was one of growing concern as the day progressed with reports of increasing yes of force against rebel held towns and an assault with the use of tanks on Benghazi. Meanwhile the heads or representative of various nations met in Paris, including the UN General Secretary and representatives of the Arab League. Moments later it was a announced that French fighter planes were over the country and later that there had been strikes on tanks and a military vehicle which are understood to have been those at Benghazi. Later it was said that the city had become quiet although thousands were said to have the city because of the attack by government forces.

This evening after a meeting of the central action committee of the government, the British Prime Minister announced that British forces had been in action and there was a similar radio message from the USA president who is on visits to South America. This was followed by a statement from the Pentagon that 112 Missiles had been launched from USA vessels and one British Submarine at 20 targets on the Western shore of Iraq covering Missile defence, radar and communications systems. This was said to be the first of a number of such strikes to achieve the non fly zone and which would then enable the campaign fighters to take out Gaddafi forces if they did not first cease fire and then move back from their locations at difference cities previously occupied by the rebel movement.

Meanwhile the journalists in Libya were invited and shown around the vast Presidential compound and to meet him among a good crowd of supporters in party mood praising the leader. This was clearly a move to use the journalists and the supports as human shields to prevent a rocket attack as happened after the bomb aboard the Lockerbie plane. Gaddafi did not make an appearance by later a stooge expressed his sadness at the unproved and illegal attack on the country by external forces. The shape of the response of the regime to make threats of retaliation upon the attackers and to lie about their true position and actions and then to present a different version to the media. Earlier I said the next 48 hours would reveal the future course of this situation.

During the evening I stayed with events rather than watch England’s defeat against Ireland in the Rugby International thus losing the opportunity for their first grand slam in eight years. I watched the leading Hezbollah cleric address a large gathering of clerics and leaders in Beirut in which he surveyed present developments in North Africa and Persian Gulf arguing that these were genuine movement of people which should be supported because they were not development promoted by the USA who had supported the regimes which had suppressed the people, arguing that Western Interests now in Libya was suspect and belated and grudging about their involvement now. It was a classic attempt to engage the people into their cause anti American and West and anti Israel to an extent that supports the concerns of the right about potential implications of recent developments. But also providing the wisdom and rightness of the approach of the British coalition supported by the Opposition.

It has been a good day despite my tiredness last night and going to bed at eight and sleeping through until past midnight, waking fully alert, drinking coffee and watching the news and then going back to bed around 2 am and fortunate then sleeping once more waking a couple of minutes before the alarm was due to set off. The swim was interrupted by hotel guests and early members so that I completed only 10 length before departing for a long sauna but afterwards despite being joined by those of varying pave and direction I completed the planned 54 lengths so that I am progressing towards catching up on the poor performance on Wednesday. I am making good but slow progress in the first chapter of my work for general publication with the chapter called the Liturgy of Joseph Grech. Some 4800 words and thirteen pages have been drafted. The first draft should be completed over the next couple of days and then will be worked until I am satisfied. I enjoyed a pork chop lunch with remains of veg from previous day, after a bacon roll and cereal breakfast and this evening a chicken and bacon prepared salad with olives and prawns added. Later I watched the Boardwalk Empire in preference to Treme,

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