Friday, 11 February 2011

2015 Egypt Delusional old men fail and threaten their country

I wrote the substantial part of what follows before switching on the television to confirm my impression of the latest situation in the capital of Egypt as I updated my previous reporting and assessment. I was hit by the atmosphere of excitement which was sweeping the main assembly area in the capital now known as Liberation Square. The cause of the mounting excitement was the appearance of an army officer who announced to the crowd that before the day was out all their aspiration would be satisfied. It is now not clear if this was a genuine statement of belief or a calculated manoeuvre on the part of the army or elements within the army to tell the protestors and through them the international media that would was to happen later was without their support and that they would ensure that the democratic wishes would be supported. There was also a more sinister aspect that the army were trying to defuse feelings, divide opinion in preparation for the final action of the regime to reassert its authority.

The likelihood that the President was to stand down rather than step aside was further reinforced when pictures were shown on the national TV stations of a meeting of the Council of the military which includes the airforce and navy senior commanders before a spokesman said that the Council had met, significantly without the presence of the commander in chief or deputy (President and Vice President) to announce it was making communiqué one to the people that they had reviewed the situation and their aspirations would be met, and that they were remaining in open Council session. There was then official news that the President would again address the people and the news media on Satellite TV returned to continuous transmission from the Square, interviews, analysis and assessments. There were interviews with the Minister of Finance, the new head of the main political Party and other figures in the present regime and who comments were on the whole interpreted by Western media as supporting the belief that the President would say he was stepping down. I saw their statements differently as jockey for position after the revolution got rid of the President and their attention was then directed and the rest of those who had held power. In order to reinforce that there was to be change, three former Ministers were told they were being investigated regarding corruption and could not leave the country or remove their financial assets. by early evening here the mood in the square was one of mounting excitement as the people came into the streets and filled the square and all the roads leading to it. The occasion was joyous but there was also a strong underlying current expressed that they would only believe it when it happened and that nothing short of regime would be acceptable or promises. They would continue to occupy the square and surround key public buildings

There appeared to be further concessions when state TV showed pictures of the demonstrations and there were several references to the aspirations of the young people with a demographic that 70% of the population were under 30. However my impression of the army council is that like the President and Vice President they are all old men and by the time I went to bed it was evident to me that these are delusional old men and therefore pose an immediate danger to the people and to the long term future of their country.

It was 8.45 here in the UK when the President spoke and in truth we had been prepared for what he was to say and its tone by the Minister for Information and a leak to an Arabic station that the President was not standing down but would announce further actions including responsibility to the vice President. The vice president has been ominously saying that the country and to return to its previous stability and the situation could not be allowed to continue as it was doing.

The President commenced by emphasising his position as President and father of the nation, how he had earned that position in service to his country over the past sixty years and 30 as its President and although he went on to appear to make concessions and to recognise the legitimacy of the what the people were saying, his patronising tone was such that it was quickly evident the crowd were not just unimpressed by horrified and voiced their disapproval in the most dramatic way of shoes their shoes to the President.

Even before the Vice President added fuel to the fire some of those in Square were setting out to surround the Presidential Palace and the TV station and to make the long journey to the Presidential compound. What the Vice President was distinctly alarming. He told the people to return to their homes and he appeared to appeal to supporters and people in the centre to take action to prevent the country falling into chaos.

Today it was previously planned that 20 million men should take to the streets around the country and over the past few days there have been strikes of workers including those working on the Suez canal. There was also the indication that the Army Council would make their second communiqué to the people, but it never came. The reaction from the White House and Downing Street during the day was muted emphasising that the matter was one for the Egyptian people and that the hope that there would change but an orderly momentum established.

A feature of the Presidential speeches was he continued attack on external influences and telling the people not to pay attention to the satellite media thus making the appeal to nationalism and united against foreign interference. This did not work as later President Obama made a written statement it was necessary that for the Egypt Government to make clear the steps which were being taken and the time table and that the statement should be made before the end of prayers to day. The fear is that then the people will take the law into their own hands and as the man who had returned to Egypt warned, the country was ready to explode.

The question still to be answered is the role of military and will they attempt to stop the millions if they start to attack government buildings and or go for the Presidency as happened in mid European countries following the coming down of the Berlin Wall The next 12 to 15 hours will reveal.

I wrote this earlier

Mr Hague is also making visits to Israel and West sympathetic Arabic states in the light of the developments in Egypt, Meanwhile the biggest demonstration so far has taken place in Cairo and other cities as the opposition continue to grow and remain more open and defiant. The USA has woken up that the present concessions of intent are no more of smokes screen in which the ruling autocracy and its supporters hope the demonstrations will peter out along with media interest leaving them to reinforce their power by dealing with the opposition.

Having mentioned my concern that the Chinese would step into any vacuum there was an interesting programme about the Cheese in Africa visiting several countries and interviewing Chinese entrepreneurs and the local population. What emerged is that the Chinese government and private developers are interested in countries with energy assets and base resources such as copper. They l fund major structure developments such as roads and railways and also commercial undertaking such a large supermarket entertainment and accommodation. However most of the construction workers are Chinese, prepared to be separated for several years from their families and who work significant harder than the indigenous people.
As a policy the Chinese do not interfere in how the nations’ rulers operate inside their country as long as they cooperate with their needs and those of their countrymen. However their arrival in Africa is being welcomed by the local because there are some regular and better paid work opportunities. The railway has also provided the opportunity for traders to sell their wares to outlying districts with demand and profits significantly greater. My belief is that the Chinese will have no scruples about playing off the politicians to gain entry and win contracts.

It is said that the President of Egypt and his family have removed out of the country tens of billions, yes billions, not millions. There are reports of leading politicians here and in the West being given expensive trips to Egypt to see the sights or relax on the red sea. Sometimes I wish I was relaxing in a warm climb by water although not at the moment. If I was younger then going to Cairo would be more likely. An even bigger demonstration is being planned tomorrow according to Al Jazeera.

So the good intentions at 6.30 have commenced to evaporate by 8 45 and an enjoyable bacon roll as I commence part 2 but the outbox at the ready remains untouched. I will wash and shave and do my hair and attend to my teeth in a moment as a wrestle over which of the subjects will I cover next, the most interesting and challenging which will take time, the easy bur boring or something in between?

I will settle for TV review because it contains a mixture but will take time as I begin with first examining what is in store for to day having already set the programme repeat for the later night political banter with Andrew and Michael and co. I have watched and listened to the news and to sniper of the thoughtful and erudite post new radio four programme with Lord exploring our understanding of sensory experience while I undertake daily ablutions

It 11.50 and I have given attention to my emails as well as write two long emails back and one short.

Yesterday I took further interest in the Sky Atlantic channel with first the second episode of the series Blue Brothers which is commencing from the first series. The subject of the second episode was intervention by a member of the public to stop a crime which leads to that individual being prosecuted.

In the UK there was the case of man who went to prison after killing someone who had broken into his home and this led to considerable public debate. There are instances of criminals taking civil action against those taking the law into their own hands. Over the past few days considerable attention has been given in to UK to a pensioner in her 70’s who used her shopping bag as a weapons to prevent what she thought was several youth on motorbikes attacking another only go find they were about to make a smash and grab on a jewellers store window. They retreated empty handed with members of the public getting hold of one of the young and which led to four of the six being now in custody. The women has a history as a community warden of intervention previously in relation to drug misuses and prostitution on her estate,

In the USA TV series, the crime involved a manic leader with others who commenced to terrorise passengers on the underground network which has over 400 stations. There was some reservation when the Commissioner ordered one man per train and two watch over every station in the hope of catching the gang leaders. In the incident a passenger had intervened when a young woman was being threatened with rape. He had obtained he gun illegally because an offence in his youth prevented entitlement to register for a weapon. He had been robbed a couple of times and bought the gun for self defence after his earnings had been taken and having a wife and child to support. He had shot and killed one of the attackers. He is then stabbed when in custody. The family of the police Commissioner is split between those who think action should to be taken against the man and those who believe the law is the law. However there is a compromise reached in which the man will appear in court and be given probation. Meanwhile the detective son works out how to successfully catch the gang leader while the latest recruit son continues to be ambivalent over whether he should spy on his colleagues to find out what happened to the elder brother. The time spent was worth while.

I must almost admit I enjoyed the first two episodes of the 4th season of Weeds a programme with outrageous direct language and questionable morality. Young sexy widow Nancy Botwin (Mary Louis Parker) and her two sons, Silas and Shane, are engaged only in marijuana growing and selling(Weeds!!), but she has burnt the home in which she was living following a decision to leave Agrestic California for a fresh start. The series created by Jenji Kohan has a strong Jewish humour. The opening song is the famous one about little boxes made of ticky tacky. Writer and actress have won various awards including Golden Globe.

I read (Wikipedia) that the husband dies before the fictional series commences with his younger son age 10 and the older 15. To support her upper middle class life style she starts to deal in marijuana among her wealthy neighbours, well you would wouldn’t you? She is helped by her husband’s younger brother, Andy whose performances also earned awards. In this first series she runs a bakery as a front for the drug sales. A sub story is the relationship with an image conscious, manic and manipulative neighbour Celia and her family. She expands sales to the local college campus and recruiting a young man Sanjay for this purpose. She had affairs, with the latest someone working for the Drug Enforcement agency.

My understanding that season two had a more darker tone as the two sons set up their own drug business renting a house to grow their own, The boyfriend admits he knows what she is doing but that she is too small time to bust and they marry protect their situation. There is much tooing and frooing in relationships with both Nancy and Celia having major problems with their spouses and with the drug traffickers including Armenian mobsters. Apparently season three commences with various sub plots including Sanjay admission he is gay and then has sex with a woman who becomes pregnant. Celia’s war with Nancy results her destroying the entire harvest. Nancy has a new relationship with a crooked developer to pay off her debt arising from the loss of the harvest. As the season progresses Nancy turns to Guillermo the leader of a Mexican dealer’s group. The drug baron burns down the crop of some low quality ditch weed run by a local group of bikers and it is as this point that Nancy decides to burn her house and have a fresh start which is where Season four commences. The intention us to destroy evidence of their illegal drug activities.

The language of the first two half hour episodes of season four is intended to shock with it direct and fruitiness and is unusual by average USA sit com standards. The sons are now 17 and 13. The fresh start involves Nancy descending on the home of her father in law and his severely disabled wife who is immobile on a drip and incontinent.

Nancy moves there because of her plan to run drugs across the border for Guillermo. Although it was her intention just to burn down the house and its evidence because of the large fire the police take understandable interest in the role of the owner of the property, Celia, who denies involvement in the fire or in the drug growing and trade operated from the premises. She is in prison in custody under physical attack from her cell mate who has designs on her becoming her special friend! The police discount her story until at the end of the second episode when Nancy is seen with Guillermo drug dealer and begin to believe that Celia is a victim..

The second episode is mainly concerned with Nancy taking what is a dry run across the border in which unknown to her she is being tested as to how she copes with immigration and customs before being entrusted to with actual drugs. She is asked to collect inhalers from a local medical store which are confiscated because she could not show a prescription (obtainable at the drugstore for an additional fee) I was previously aware that USA Americans go over the border to Canada for their medication because it is significantly cheaper than in the states so a similar operation over the Southern border appears a sound story line to cover the trade as well as it taking two hours to get through the line at the border. She pees into a drinks cup because there are no toilets on the waiting line which indicates the style of the show..

The sub story of these two episodes in the relationship with father in law who was never happy with his sons relationship preferring an early prospective daughter in law and doubts the paternity of the sons and is not surprised that she is on the run. He is a gambler who has not forgiven his younger son for not placing the only bet, a triple, which would have brought $20000. Nancy keeps him happy by giving him a few hundred dollars to continue his gambling interests. The series looks fun and is rated above the Boardwalk and certainly above the revival of Hawaii Five 0, the previous long standing series set in Honolulu and which ran for ten or more seasons with Steve McGarret played by Jack Lord and Kam Fong as Shin Ho the local police assistant. Apart from the likeability personalities of these two and the location scenery the episodes covered stock cops and robbers stories.

The new series is a remake some 42 years after the original and the first episode was as stock as before with Garret played by Alex O’Loughlin a long way short of Lord. However I was delighted to see Daniel Dae Kim in the role of Chin Ho, after his excellent performance in Lost. Pleased to see there is life after Lost. However I will only watch again when I am at a loose end of something light to see which is rare.

Now to the serious. I watched the Chancellor and the Minister for Business make their statements arising from negotiations with the Banks. The Chancellor was said to have caused anger among the Bankers by announcing that he was increasing the levy by just under 1 million this year yesterday. This was to offset the limited success of the other negotiations. He tempted that we had the most open system in the world which amounts to the identification of the top nine paid executives to the independent no executive Director There appears to be little progress in the proposal to spilt banks between High Street and gambling activities. The approach of the Opposition was to allege failure to achieve objectives and this results in the unanswerable charge that those who were responsible in government for the situation arising, non other that Mr Balls and the Opposition leader who worked at the Treasury, a charge with the Prime Minister and Chancellor propose to raise time and time again. The Business Secretary was effectively subdued and conciliatory after his recent drubbing and loss of face arising from the journalist scam posing as attractive loyal constituents. The charge which the Coalition is yet to rebut is that in tackling the debt and trying to modernise institutions they have not just failed to restart the economy but are at risk of creating a double dip recession.

There was subsequently a good exchange about whether some Councils are taking party political decisions when making cuts, which from experience they will do, but where often the decisions relates to the prejudices of individual leaders, Chairs and some backroom advisers and influential Party supporters.

The issue is the extent to which local authorities are reducing senior and middle management and other back office jobs particularly by sharing functions with other local authorities and also joining purchasing partnerships and putting other services to tender at lower costs. It is also a way for forcing local authorities to free schools from the local education responsibility and to encourage others to transfer services to the proposed new local social partnerships.

Today the issue the vote for prisoners which middle England and the far right are opposed to despite the European wide legal view that to deprive prisoners is to remove basic democratic rights. The are also problems with the progress of the legislation to introduce the alternative voting system with are referendum this April. Mr Clegg has had to cancel a trip he was making as a consequence. he will also announce a Bill protecting citizen freedoms.

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