It is reported that the Prime Minister is visiting the British Head of State this weekend. Has he been summoned to explain himself or more liking will he ask for the prorogation to be extended to November 1st if General election is not agreed for October 15th?
All Blog writings from February 2007 added duing 2009 as part of the Artman 101 project.
Thursday 5 September 2019
Brexit, an informed forecast of what will happen next
As BBC and Sky news channels
debate this morning what will happen next, the Robert Peston, ITV programme of
4th September 2019 contained interviews with Boris Johnson, John
McDonnell and Ian Blackford and important commentaries on what they said by
Dominic Grieve and Jess Phillips after the House of Commons refused to accept
the General Election date of October 15th and passed the Bill seeking a further
extension to avoid No deal.
A number of statements were made
in the programme which coupled with what was said and observed during Prime
Minister’s Question Time, what transpired to be the autumn election spending statement,
consideration of the Stop No deal Bill and General Election Debate 12 a.m. to
10 p.m, which I believe makes clear the latest position and what will happen
between now and Monday or even later, if the government holds off Prorogation
All future measures presented Parliament
by the Johnson government will be opposed and defeated, including the proposed
Queens Speech, with the exception of an amendable legislative measure to abolish
the Fixed Parliament Act which the government is likely to introduce if it is
known the Commons will agree that the date of the General Election can be fixed
without alteration after the October 17th meeting of the EEC
ministers and who in turn will have agreed an extension to enable this to
happen, and in which instances the opposition parties (with the exception of the
DUP) will campaign for any agreement, revocation, new agreement, and possibly
no deal to be put to the people in a second referendum.
It is evident that all the Party
leaders (and this may include the D.U.P) together with an increasing number of
Conservatives in addition to the those effectively expelled, have concluded, or
reinforced their view, that Mr Johnson is unfit to be Prime Minister and have
agreed to do what is required to be rid of him. Part of the agreed plan is
to also expose the role and behaviour of Dominic Cummings who has now been
named by the opposition and several lading conservatives as the agent of
Johnson’s plan.
This was brought out clearly
with media interviews and speeches made in the Commons by the majority of those
expelled with a number of powerful and emotional contributions by those have
decided not to stand in the general election and those who will stand as independent
conservatives, independents or for other parties.
Last night Ken Clark in the
General Election debate called Boris dishonest, saying one thing and doing
another and all the other leaders said he was untrustworthy. The Speaker allowed
one backbencher to remind the House that Johnson had been twice shown to be a
liar and Jeremy Corbyn said in effect he was two faced, unscrupulous and lacking
integrity. Jeremy has not once attacked back during he years of verbal assaults
on his record and intentions, I thought something had fundamentally changed
when Tony Blair advised Corbyn and the other Opposition parties not to agree the
General Election and opened the door to campaigning for Labour in the General
Election
The Speaker told him Johnson abruptly
and then politely to sit down, and also to use acceptable Parliamentary
language and behaviour, and when Ken Clark drew attention that the Chancellor of
the Exchequer was out of order when commencing his Party political election
spending statement, the Speaker said he had accepted the statement would take longer (45 mins) but
told the Chancellor twice to stick to the terms of reference of the statement.
Secondly, the Opposition
Parties and leading Tories not in the Government, understand that if Johnson is
not stopped now, this will only be the start of his approach to stay in power
insisting on complete obedience of all the members of his government,
backbenchers and advisers and like Trump getting rid of anyone who opposes or
appears disloyal.
Thirdly, he is already turning
the Tory Party, not just into the Brexit Party to defeat Farage, but an ideological
free market, low tax, and low welfare party despite the appearance of ending
austerity in order to win his first General Election. It appears, unconfirmed,
that the Chancellor’s proposed speech was rejected and one re written for him
hence the marching out of No 10 but an armed policer man of one of the Chancellor’s
official advisers.
All the Opposition political
Parties with the exception of the DUP although there may informal communication
between anti Boris Tories and individual member of the D.U.P have agreed that
the only way to politically get rid of Boris is to defeat him a general
election once the No deal legislation becomes law with the Royal assent. They have
agreed that the general election should not take place until after the October
17th Meeting of E.E.C leaders who they are confident will agree to
extend article 50 to avoid a no deal Brexit. They accept this will involve the
government seeking legislation to set aside the Fixed Term Parliament Act, but
in a way which will be amendable so that the date can be determined by the House
of Commons following agreement between all the Party Leaders. They appear
confident the EEC will agree to the extension and which may be extended further
to cover for the proposed second referendum.
I am confident that all the
Opposition parties have agreed that they will campaign in the general election to
hold a second referendum with a commitment to implement whatever is decided and
this includes the Tory “rebels”.
The next bit is speculation on
my part but there may even be agreement between the Parties for election pacts
because of the likely Remain vote split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It has
been agreed that if the Labour Party is the biggest party in a situation where
they do not have an overall majority (possible even if they do have a majority,
they will accept a request to hold a second Scottish Referendum although the Party
will campaign for the Union.
It was also evident that Jo
Swinson has been on a Leader’s training course and was impressive at PMQ’s and the
General Election debate.
Several of the Tory rebels
made it clear they oppose and want to stop a Jeremy Corbyn and McDonnell government, but the SNP and Lib Dems
had stopped attacking Jeremy Corbyn, and Jo Swinson has clarified than in
saying Ken Clark and Harriet Harman should lead an interim government this was
said on the basis the Jeremy would not as things stood be able to form a
minority government but this many have changed after Tony Blair endorsed the
changed position and all the Labour rebels except John Mann and Kate Hoey voted
for the stop no deal Bill.
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