2430 The Rise of UKIP

Locked in the desk top computer and possible wiped clean with what happened last night are several pieces of writing about contemporary politics including a start on the implication of the United Kingdom Independence party coming second in the Eastleigh by-election and general agreement that had they had more time, possibly even another 24 hours they would have taken the seat. The major parties, especially the Prime Minister were quick to suggest this was an understandable protest vote in the mid term of a Parliament with the Party in government winning only four by elections out of the past 400 or more.

 

It is understandable that the Party leaders and front bench spokes people will put the best gloss on results when media challenged but I assume that in private the three main parties, all social democratic in nature, will know that the rise of the UK independence Party who also came second in two by elections in the north is a significant development with major implications.

 

I say social democratic not as a negative but because they are neither traditional Tory little Englanders or Trade Union socialist and a well organised fourth Party is likely to attract a wide range of people disenchanted with the broad fronted coalition in the sense that all these three parties will form coalitions with each other in the event of not having an overall majority. Clearly there is now the possibility of a new alliance between Lib Dem and Labour and between the Conservatives and the UK independence party in the offing. This could prove the best scenario for avoiding the rise of a significant Party on the right with at the moment little indication of the rise of a party on the far left.

 

The associated development in the Easleigh election that the Lib Dems only held the seat because of having achieved a significant anti Tory as well as other party base on the local Council and had effectively managed the postal vote so that people would have voted for the Party before the extent to which the Lib Dem leaders terminological switches on his and the parties handling of complaints against former Chief Executive Rennard was established. While his many powerful male friends within the Party hierarchy defended, and he denied that he had done anything warranting police intervention, it emerged that there had been grounds for an internal disciplinary investigation regarding the attempted misuse of power between a senior and subordinates and later grounds for a second internal inquiry on how the party handled the matter.  First Clegg implied he knew nothing, then he was aware of broad unspecific issues, then that a leading Lib Dem had warned the man about his future conduct, then that he had resigned on ill health grounds and then the other issues had been in the background. The shifting position of Clegg has done him much personal political harm within his own party and the voting public.  He has become damaged goods and whatever the two internal inquiries now say if I was a leading Lib Dem I would be looking for a good female Member of Parliament to lead the Party at the next General Election. I suspect we will have to wait until after the election.

 

Meanwhile the Lib Dems who faced  political oblivion for having been part of the Coalition will now take confidence that with the right structure in their existing seats and marginals where they came second at the General Election they  can be optimistic about maintaining their position if not improving it, all subject to political developments in the next two years.

 

I now turn to the Tory party whose members are an aging reactionary group in favour of fox hunting, happy to keep the nuclear deterrent, and a navy of aircraft carriers and battleships, are white racists, against homosexuality, lesbianism, atheism, single parenthood and non Christian religions, the welfare state, and taxation, are fervent monarchists, in favour of the House of Lords and an aristocracy etc. This morning we had the spectacle of a Tory spokesman saying we are not going to move to the Right but connecting with the public by reminding what we have achieved and what we stand for and will fight the next General Election in a straight fight with Labour and then trotted out we are against immigration and will do what we can stop the Rumanians coming for our welfare and national health service and scrap Euro Human Rights. Fortunately with a Tory apparatchik mouthing the same central office briefing the Member of Parliament for the City of London said this was all just talk which would fool no one and was misleading and raised false expectations. William Hague was more effect but promoting the same line as a means of trying to sideline UKIP and keep the battle focussed on the official Opposition.

 

The Tories have so little room to manoeuvre before the Council and European Parliament Elections or with the Scottish Referendum having made their bed on the Euro referendum, Gay marriage, unable to stop the movement of Rumanians, Bulgarians and other legitimate European citizens, committed to the 50p  tax reduction in April, frozen the over 65 Tax allowance and the bedroom tax on those in public and private rented homes who claim housing benefit, bankers salaries and bonuses, decided not to implement Leveson and unable to stop energy price rises etc. They could introduce a share give away in he banks but this will not stop economic stagnation through the loss of public sector jobs and the questionable nature of new private capital jobs. Nor can they halt the changing nature of the high street via supermarkets out of town shopping centres with free car carparking and Internet trading.

 

And what of the official opposition? First they had not devoted any resources  into the constituency prior to the departure of Hulne for being a liar and perverting the course of justice albeit in a pointless and self destructive way. If they were to win the constituency it would mean they would have some 5000 seats out of the 630 available. They would have hoped to have gained more votes, votes that went to UKIP who have also done well recently in seats with a history of Labour Members of Parliament and this is the worry for Labour that they will not win marginals held or expected to win in the next General Election as the vote is shared with UKIP and the prospect of another hung Parliament and Coalition government is more likely than less.

 

The Tories, Lib Dems and UK will continue to blame the Labour Party for changing the ethnicity and culture of Greater London and England in General and for the debt spending four pounds for every three raised in taxation, selling to gold off cheap and giving way in Europe.

 

Will we see Labour push more to left? Defend Public services better than it has? Vote against Trident? Last Autumn I attend a public meeting in Jarrow at which the Member of Parliament for the Constituency spoke and argued for everyone working within the boundaries of him Labour Party rather than going to those on the Left who promised a stronger stand. I was very impressed by the President of the Union who represents workers at the benefits headquarters in Newcastle in which she and the their full time Secretary outlined in a booklet an approach which also covered pensions and the position of women to that of the Labour front bench.

 

So is the UKIP win just a mid term protest?  It is a protest against professional politicians in general and non UK Europeans and others taking lower paid jobs and this vote will hold because the party leaderships will remain in the hands of professional politicians who have done no other work. This will be reflected in the European Parliament Elections and may affect the outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum after all they are now more likely to remain in the ECC as an Independent nation as they are in a Tory UKIP alliance. I also expect the Murdoch’s through the Sun and the Times newspapers to support UKIP.

In my judgement this all adds to a significant change in British politics, especially those of England, London and the South East.