Tuesday 8 November 2011

2177 An overview of work programme over next two weeks as Downton Abbey Ends

Another week flashes by although I enjoyed reading and reflecting on Le Carré book the Mission Song and two of the films from his early pre Karla trilogy books. It is time to take a break of one probably two weeks from his work to undertake some catch up on the rioting, and begin catch up on the on the phone hacking where there have been important developments, and on drama serial TV. I must also commence Christmas shopping once I have thought through what is needed. The Leveson Inquiry also begins its hearings. What happened to the Iraq Inquiry report? Latest forecast is not until next summer and I can then see a further delay until after the main Olympics.

Europe and the capitalist economic world continues to head towards the precipice of employment and business depression because the leading European countries are unwilling, understandably, to rush headlong into the political union required to sustain the euro with Italy now at the brink after Greece became the proverbial basket case. The problem in Greece is that the professional and business class have avoided income and tax payments by the issuing of false invoices and receipts for say 25% of the cost and the rest paid as cash. However part of the gain has then to be used to bribe public officials to get something done. The outcome is that billions of taxes remains unpaid hence the need of the country to have borrowed money to keep government going. A significant change in attitude is required. The Prime Minister has been forced to quite by his attempted stunt of agreeing measures and then saying these had to be out to a referendum.

A reporter of the Sun has been charged with paying a police officer to obtain information in relation to the Milly Dowler investigation and the evidence has been established that solicitors for News International hired private investigators to keep surveillance on the two solicitors involved in which the civil cases of victims of illegal action by the company, including the wife and children of the most well known and influential lawyer Mark Lewis. We were shown the documentary evidence last night on Newsnight with the story also breaking in the Guardian newspaper. James Murdoch previously told the Culture Committee his company was doing everything possible to cooperate with the police and put things right will have further questions to try and wriggle out of when he again faces the Committee later this week.

The opposition appears to feel it has got the government on the ropes at various levels. The Church of England has got itself into a ludicrous position when it appeared that in the name of Christ to be attempting to evict not the money lenders from the temple but those protesting at the obscenely immoral behaviour of the money lenders. There is the suggestion of government pressure to close the Cathedral until the protestors moved and then to take legal action when they refused. There appears now to be a change of mind with the Archbishop and the Opposition Leadership arguing that the protest is understandable given the obscene increases in top management pay and bonuses in a situation when everyone else is finding their disposable income significantly reduced and millions, especially young graduates and other school leaves finding they unemployed. Various people have expressed sympathy with public anger at the situation although not the form of protest. The Labour Parliamentary Opposition sensing the mood of the voting public has appeared to also be sympathetic. No has it condemned the proposed day of coordinated strike action for the end of the month primarily in relation to public sector pensions.

I decided to record rather than stay up last night to watch an important programme on the question: are we going to have another prolonged and cold period of snow bound weather this winter? The programme provide some interesting historical information which I feel I ought to have known as well as the general factors which affect UK climate which again I should have known.

I begin with the answer to the question: No one can say with any degree of certainty beyond a few days to a couple of weeks and even if this suggests a cold spell it does not necessary mean a snow falls. However once it happens it is possible to foresee whether it likely to last and for days rather than weeks. The present indications are against a third winter of prolonged cold and snow. Morison’s the Supermarket which used commercially provided forecasting is working on the basis there could be a severe snow fall in Scotland and the North East at the end of November and then short periodic winter query snow falls throughout December and any prolonged spell after the New Year. A severe cold spell does not automatically mean snow and separate research is attempting to establish the conditions within clouds which reveal the likelihood of snow, its quantity and mass.

Because of its location the UK is one of the most difficult countries to predict weather over the longer term. Work which take several years is being undertaken which suggests that there could a correlation between the level of sun spot activity and the level of temperatures and weather conditions with the lower the sun spot activity the more likelihood of lower temperatures and bad weather caused by polar cold moving south and stooping, blocking, the warming effects of the trade winds. Sun spot activities appear to come in cycles with the indications that a low cycle is ending.

At present it is not possible to predict when the arctic cold air will come down as far as the UK thus preventing the warming. However once it does it usually means it will last for a week or two and then it can change or prove difficult to change which leads to prolonged periods of snow for a month or more.

The situation between 1500-1800 has been described as the Little Ice Age when the general weather was significantly colder and the winters prolonged. For the past 100 years the number of prolonged winter snow spells has been few and those occurring in two successive years, let alone three rare. It is thought that the low sun spot activity has been more significant than cold air moving from the south as well as north poles because of the melting of the ice caps through global warming. The southern one reduces the power of the trade winds to stop the cold arctic air moving south, when it does.

There are those who argue that it is the warm gulf stream which in fact keeps the UK warmer than its location should be by some 10% on average and which is why there are vineyards and not polar bear however the more widely held view centres on the above ground air movement and the impact of the arctic cold air pushing as far south as the UK and not being pushed back.

Atlantic based Hurricanes can affect wind levels and rain in the UK causing the damage of the great storm of 1987 but the USA Eastern seaboard experiences of severe snow storms as they did in late October do not necessarily have an immediate affect on our conditions

After last year I have heard other reports which indicate there have been major improvements in the stockpiling of equipment and supplies to combat airport runways and roads (not heard anything re railways) so far.

Downton Abbey has now ended its second season and has become a favourite upper class versus the people soap. After my criticism of the first part of the new season the last three episodes did pick up and achieved a good mixture of resolution and matters to be resolved in the Christmas special and the subsequent third season.

It is fitting that the series ended on the Sunday before 11th hour of the 11th day as the story covers the announcement of the armistice which the family with all the staff mark in the big hall at the appropriate time. Most of the characters in the series know and believe it is good that things will change after the War although the Dowager Countess states that she has no intention of changing either her lifestyle or her beliefs and attitudes. The Earl is the most uncertain about his future role, hoping he will be able to return to the place in the order of things as before.

A threat to the anticipated future of the estate came in the third to last episode when in November 1918 a Canadian officer, badly disfigured by burns, asks to be brought to the Downton Hospital, stating that he is related to the family. Robert agrees, assumes he is some distant relation, sharing common ancestry. He appears disappointed that Edith does not recognise him and then reveals that he is Patrick Crawley, who has been declared dead in the disaster of the Titanic and led to Mathew becoming the next in line.

His story is that he survived the Titanic but suffered from amnesia so he was unable to identify himself and lived as a Canadian until a wartime experience restored his memory. Most of the others vehemently deny the possibility even though he appears to have a good memory of his childhood visits and then as young man. During a conversation with Lord Grantham he does a gesture which appears to confirm his identity but Grantham is unwilling to accept this as substantive proof and refers to his lawyers to undertake investigations. Patrick had been engaged to Lady Mary as a marriage of convenience so as the eldest daughter she would have her place in Downton on the death of her father. Otherwise her father would be unable to provide substantially for her because in addition to the house grounds and properties, the heir would get the major part of the remaining capital after death duties. The position of his wife and the present Dowager Duchess would also be affected in terms of their rights to visit let alone at Downton.

It was Edith who loved and wanted to marry Patrick and it is Edith who believes his story and quickly grows attached to the man despite his significant disfigurement. The lawyers are unable to substantiate the story because what happened to the individual who was pulled out of the sea by one of male crew members remains unknown. There is also the news that a close friend of Patrick had emigrated to Canada and therefore would know from Patrick a great deal about the family and the childhood contact. He sudden leaves with the note left for Edith leaving open ended if he is the real heir or was attempting a fraud to gain control of the family estate and also Edith .This issue is therefore unresolved.

There are two developments which also affect the Earl and his wife. The two have been leading increasingly separate lives. The Earl experienced the greatest loss of identity of all the members of the aristocratic Household during the World War Years with his wife and Edith finding important and satisfying roles. He takes an interest in the latest housemaid the war widow whose son attends the local junior school but is sufficiently bright that the headmaster has entered him for a scholarship to Ripon Grammar. The Early says he is on the board of the school and will mention his interest in the boy to the headmaster. When the boy gains a place the widow is understandable grateful to the Earl and sensing his loneliness and unhappiness the two are drawn to each other emotionally. And the possibility of something developing grows when the Countess is one the household who get Spanish Flue and appears at death’s door. She survives, commenting when she does, we are alright aren‘t we to her husband.
The house maid leaves and the Earl gives an endowment to her to secure the future of the boy.

The quartet of relationships involving the existing heir, Matthew, and his Lavinia and between Lady Mary Crawley and the new money newspaper Baron Sir Richard Carlisle reaches a crescendo. In the previous episode Matthew becomes wheel bound because of his spinal injury and without any sensations in his lower body cuts himself from Lavinia banishing her from having any contact with him. He is however cared for in part by Lady Mary cementing their closeness much to the concern of Sir Richard. Understanding that she will feel the loss of Downton he purchases for her the biggest estate house in the area and Downton neighbours which he says he will modernise the interior with central heating and ensuite bedrooms which the Earl responds that it sounds like making the place into a hotel.

The event which upsets the apple cart comes when Matthew begins to feel something in his legs and then at a moment of crisis stands up and everyone celebrates what appears a miraculous recovery. His GP admits that the consultant had queried if instead of a permanent breakage the spine had suffered a sever shock. He will recovery over time but require a walking stick.

Concerned of the growing dependency and intimacy that had developed between Matthew and Lady Mary, Sir Richard had first laid the law down with her and then asked the senior housemaid Anna and future wife of Bates to spy on her. Anna tells the housekeeper and Carson the Butler and traditional head of the household staff. Carson had been offered a trembling of his income to become head of the new household at the property to be the country home Sir Richard and Lady Mary and after consulting the Earl and Lady Mary decides to accept out of loyalty to Mary who he has known since childhood and wanting to ensure she has a household established in the tradition fitting for her background. However when he hears about the request to spy he withdraws his acceptance. Lady Mary is also advised of what happened.

Sir Richard also arranges for Lavinia to return to care for Matthew and she takes day and night care for which he understandably feels gratitude and loyalty and when he recovers says he would like to marry her again which she is all too willing to accept. This development affects Lady Mary and the Dowager, scheming as always to get her original way, advises Mary that she should declare herself and she also tells Matthew that he should decided which marriage is likely to work best for them in the long term. She is right of course that marriages based on duty, and a sense of honour, are rarely happy and satisfying to both parties even if they last. It looks as if they are to have a happy ending when circumstances contrive to bring them together; they dance and kiss something which Lavinia witnesses as well as hears what they say but immediately pretends not to notice although she does take an opportunity to offer to release Matthew from his further commitment to her.

Then Lavinia is also struck down with the Spanish Flu and she does not survive. This ends all immediate prospect of a relationship between Matthew and Lady Mary as he realises from what she said to him that she had given up fighting for life through a broken heart. Lady Mary also recognises this and at the Funeral when Sir Richard asks if he may walk her back to the House she says that she wants him so. What they feel now is one thing but clearly what they will feel in ten or twenty year’s time is another.

The relationship between the political and democratic orientated Lady Sybil and the Chauffer Branson also develops when he is offered a job in Ireland as a political journalist and he gives her an ultimatum to come with him when he departs. They elope to Gretna Green but she is brought back by her sisters before the marriage take place. She and Bransen, the Chauffer, are insistent and are warned that if they go they will be cut off from the family. The Earl attempts to buy Bransen off with cash. As a consequence of all that happens when he sees them at the funeral he gives his blessing. He says he will give his youngest daughter a small allowance and consider attending their wedding in Dublin. The Dowager is also supportive of this development saying that it is best to avoid a scandal and that they have relations in Ireland who can keep and eye on the couple. This paves the way for the couple to be involved in the uprising and struggle for independence.

Thomas, the rogue former footman finds his position as chief nurse and administrator of the convalescent unit no longer required with the end of the war. He continues to live at Downton hoping no one will object until he is able to set himself up in the post war black market. He rents storage in the village in the belief that his investment in unattainable goods via a contact in a pub will give him the stake to set up in more conventional business. He then finds himself penniless when the goods are found to be fakes with sugar sand for example and worse he is told to leave the Abbey. He is saved when the household goes down with the Flu including Carson and he becomes indispensable once more.

The even more wicked personal maid to her Ladyship O’Brien is full of guilt as the countess appears to be approaching death and she nearly confesses about putting the soap which led to the loss of the child. Any remorse is short-lived because she continues to be as vicious towards Bates and Anne as she has been.

Bates is shocked to find his divorce threatened by Vera who has told the judge that he paid her to leave him and he goes to London to makes another attempt to settle matters with her. He tells his Lordship that she wishes the woman was dead. However, upon his return, he receives the news that she is dead by suicide without a note. He is further alarmed that she appears to have died from the poison her bought for her when they were together to put down some rats. A conversation about this is overheard by O’Brien.

Fearing he is going to be arrested the couple decide to take the opportunity of her death to marry and are given temporary leave of absence for the day, They return to find that the daughters of the household have arranged a guest bedroom for them for one night together with flowers and candles. Their happiness is short-lived as the series ends when two policemen arrive to arrest Bates for the murder of his wife. The implication is that O’Brien has reported the overheard conversation to the police,

There are two other storylines. The parents of Major Bryant ask to visit Downton where their son convalesced during which time he made one of the house maids pregnant and where he subsequently denied all responsibility for the mother and her child. She now survives in the village largely on charity from the housekeeper and cook at the big house. The son has return to the front and been killed.

The housekeeper mentions their arrival to Ethel, suggests she comes to the House on the occasion of their visit and she will try and get the wife to see her and the child. When the husband wants to keep the visit brief and goes straight into lunch Ethel decides that her only opportunity is to gatecrash the meal. While the grandmother is understandably interested her husband storms out of the Abbey and away. His wife explains that he is still unable to grieve for the loss of his son. Ethel is then surprised to learn that Major Bryant’s parents want to see her but the grandfather father wants to take her child away permanently and raising him as a gentleman pretending that his mother had died from Spanish Flu. He refuses all suggestions that she joins their household. Eventually she determines not to let him go as a mother's love is more important than a wealthy upbringing. This may provide an opportunity for her to regain employment at the Hall

This leaves the house maid Daisy who against her feelings and conscience consented to the death bed marriage with the former footman William who became Matthew’s batman and was fatally injured in the same incident which appeared to cripple Matthew. She refuses advice and information to claim for war widow’s pension and other benefits as he had wanted and to have contact with the man’s father who she sees visiting her son’s grave in he estate cemetery at the same time as the funeral for Lavinia. There is appears to be the possibility of development she accepting the opportunity that the footman wanted to give her.

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