I thought I had to be up early today, Wednesday March 2nd 2011, not for my fitness swim, but to try and get a Travel Lodge room at £10 for when Durham play Sussex at Hove in the County Cricket Championship. I then discovered the booking period commenced at 6am tomorrow and although I procrastinated before going to bed at around 11 am I assumed that I would achieve a good night’s sleep and go for a swim in the morning. I then got into a periodic grove where I had an idea which needed to work through with the consequence that I seemed to be awake for hours and constantly needing to go to the toilet. I must have slept a little when finding it was 1.30 am although it felt that I had not slept at all. I listened to the radio and caught a review of the situation in the Middle East, noting that there have now been demonstrations in Oman. It was around 4 am when I woke again and then 6.30 am so I decided to miss out on the swim this morning but plan to try a late evenings session for the first time, all going well.
The media having invested heavily in sending journalists to Libya are now showing signs of not being able to understand the political strategy, or perhaps they do and are cooperating with the government in presenting a position favourable to the revolutionaries and to the Western allies.
It is worth recapping the position todate. The revolutionaries have established a new interim regime, of a fashion, given the inherited circumstances in the majority areas of the country in terms of population and land area.
The Gaddafi regime has reinforced its position in the capital where approximately a third of the population is established in its environs. It has done this by violently suppressing any shows of dissent and then systematically going for known dissenters and removing them, imprisoning, killing and disappearing as appropriate. The dissenters are now living in fear within their homes and being forces to display enthusiasm for the regime on pain of torture and death for themselves and more importantly in relation to their families. About a quarter of a million people have fled by air and sea, and on land across the borders with Tunisia and Egypt, mostly citizens of those countries although in many instances they have found it necessary to cross the opposite border to their original homelands.
There is now a major humanitarian problem which the rest fo the world must address although there will be anxiety about establishing settlement camps in the hope that the regime will fall and everyone will begin to feel confident about returning.
In addition to the military and police which the Gaddafi regime controls, there are the mercenaries although these may not be highly trained but poor and comparative young men persuaded to travel to the country without understanding what they will being doing or risking. The regime also possess a sophisticated air defence system which includes air craft and helicopter gun ships. This is the second concern if the regime uses this power to try and regain control of the rest of the country. For this reason while it would be difficult to enforce, the British government in particular, is not only pressing for a non fly zone but threatening to intervene if there as any move by the regime to move again ordinary citizenry. The issue is not long term as the many experts and interested parties have been saying but short and immediate. It is understandable the neighbouring countries Spain, Italy and France will be cautious because of the risk of counter measures.
There is also concerned that intervention could result in being drawn into a prolonged land involvement similar to that in Iraq. In fact this is not the issue. The revolutionaries what the non fly zone because of the emotional and political significance as well as military. They no not want direct involvement on the ground because this will be counter productive and give the regime the excuse to try and re-establish its legitimacy. It is try gain some international support by inviting journalists. They are obliged to report what they see. Their presence is also helping to keep the situation in the capital quiet while both sides take stock and prepare for their respective offensive measures. However their presence is also giving credibility to the regime and emboldening Gaddafi to counter the rhetoric with his own. The UK and other leaders must not give the impression to the general population in Libya that they will intervene if there is no ability or collective willing to do so
Time is important for the revolutionaries and the trans Atlantic nations. Time is needed to place military resources strategically in the right places for action if required. Tine is needed to ensure all those who want to leave are able to do so and then for them to be adequately cared for. Time is needed to starve the regime of new resources military and financial and to arrange for self destruction, internal destruction and eventually isolation of the present leadership. Ideally Gaddafi and his sons need to be taken out one way or another.
The media having invested heavily in sending journalists to Libya are now showing signs of not being able to understand the political strategy, or perhaps they do and are cooperating with the government in presenting a position favourable to the revolutionaries and to the Western allies.
It is worth recapping the position todate. The revolutionaries have established a new interim regime, of a fashion, given the inherited circumstances in the majority areas of the country in terms of population and land area.
The Gaddafi regime has reinforced its position in the capital where approximately a third of the population is established in its environs. It has done this by violently suppressing any shows of dissent and then systematically going for known dissenters and removing them, imprisoning, killing and disappearing as appropriate. The dissenters are now living in fear within their homes and being forces to display enthusiasm for the regime on pain of torture and death for themselves and more importantly in relation to their families. About a quarter of a million people have fled by air and sea, and on land across the borders with Tunisia and Egypt, mostly citizens of those countries although in many instances they have found it necessary to cross the opposite border to their original homelands.
There is now a major humanitarian problem which the rest fo the world must address although there will be anxiety about establishing settlement camps in the hope that the regime will fall and everyone will begin to feel confident about returning.
In addition to the military and police which the Gaddafi regime controls, there are the mercenaries although these may not be highly trained but poor and comparative young men persuaded to travel to the country without understanding what they will being doing or risking. The regime also possess a sophisticated air defence system which includes air craft and helicopter gun ships. This is the second concern if the regime uses this power to try and regain control of the rest of the country. For this reason while it would be difficult to enforce, the British government in particular, is not only pressing for a non fly zone but threatening to intervene if there as any move by the regime to move again ordinary citizenry. The issue is not long term as the many experts and interested parties have been saying but short and immediate. It is understandable the neighbouring countries Spain, Italy and France will be cautious because of the risk of counter measures.
There is also concerned that intervention could result in being drawn into a prolonged land involvement similar to that in Iraq. In fact this is not the issue. The revolutionaries what the non fly zone because of the emotional and political significance as well as military. They no not want direct involvement on the ground because this will be counter productive and give the regime the excuse to try and re-establish its legitimacy. It is try gain some international support by inviting journalists. They are obliged to report what they see. Their presence is also helping to keep the situation in the capital quiet while both sides take stock and prepare for their respective offensive measures. However their presence is also giving credibility to the regime and emboldening Gaddafi to counter the rhetoric with his own. The UK and other leaders must not give the impression to the general population in Libya that they will intervene if there is no ability or collective willing to do so
Time is important for the revolutionaries and the trans Atlantic nations. Time is needed to place military resources strategically in the right places for action if required. Tine is needed to ensure all those who want to leave are able to do so and then for them to be adequately cared for. Time is needed to starve the regime of new resources military and financial and to arrange for self destruction, internal destruction and eventually isolation of the present leadership. Ideally Gaddafi and his sons need to be taken out one way or another.
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