Sunday 20 February 2011

2022The implications of civil disorder in North Africa and Arabia

As with the news media it has been difficult to know on which country to focus as reports of civil unrest and insurrection appeared from Algeria in west north Africa, Libya adjacent to Egypt and with Tunisia to the North, Jordan across the canal isthmus, the Yemen to the south of Saudi Arabia, in Iraq and Iran and then within the gulf itself Kuwait and Bahrain. It was quickly evident that the cause of the unrest or the form and extent of unrest was different although the precipitating cause was the success of what had happened in Egypt where mass civil disobedience protest had been successful despite the use of civil and private force, the apparatus of a police state and the stubbornness of delusional rulers.

I write this in an emotional and clear headed state because of the way events have unfolded over the last days.

Al-Jazeera UK provided an excellent account of what has happened in Egypt over the past three weeks, with the giant swings of emotions from expectations a week Thursday crushed in the political blindness and personal pride and obstinacy of the 30 years in power ruler as he and his vice president made one last hopeless call on the country to return to previous normality. They were met with a resounding angry no and renewed determination which led to the ecstatic celebrations a week Friday, renewed this Friday as with the approval of the Military Council, hundreds of thousands congregated around the country.

They were also there to remember the dead and to remind the Military Council of their expectation of the changes they require. The Military Police were present in the form of their band playing the national anthem and national songs and marches. Over the past week the Military Council has continued to issue communiqués saying that it will only continue in its present role until a new constitution and elections bring a new President and civil administration. It has said that existing treaties especially that with Israel will be honoured. It has arrested three former government ministers after placing two or all three under house arrest and frozen their assets. It has also taken action against one businessman amid reports that some of the most wealthy had already left the country in a fleet of private jets. It has called on the Commission preparing the new constitution to bring forward proposals within two weeks. It has said it will not field a candidate in the election for the new President. However it retains control of the Internal media and nothing has yet been reported which has come to my attention that the strict censorship controls are beginning to be lifted. Nor has there been evidence presented on the dismantling of the apparatus of the police state or the release of political prisoners. There is also no evidence that the tourists have commenced to return in any numbers. The stock exchange is yet to reopen. However there are no reports of violence or civil unrest. If the Military Council wanted any reminder of what will happen if it now fails to meet state commitments and timetables events elsewhere should keep them focused.

For a time the most worrying development appeared to be that in the small state of Bahrain, a collection of small islands with the largest of the 33 only 11 miles by 34 and an overall population of 1.2 million and where Britain had a major influencing control until the early 1970’s. And still has a base, together with the USA who uses the World Heritage site harbour for its Middle East Fleet. The Harbour area has also become the base for developing financial and commercial services and next month the International Motor Racing Grand Prix series commences as it has over recent years. The Crown Prince and his son are educated and enlightened men who have made important changes over the past decade and appeared unlikely causes of the decision to attack peaceful demonstrators in the middle of the night with the maximum force causing a a number of deaths and serious injuries. The shocked response of the USA President and British Foreign secretary summed up the fear that instead of learning the lessons of Egypt, forces within the country, perhaps under the influence of the Saudi’s had decided to try and tough it out

Bahrain is located next to vast Saudi Arabia with the other small gulf state of Qatar close by and where the longest connecting causeway is to be built, It sits midway in the Gulf with Kuwait and Iraq at the inner end, with Iran across the water and United Arab States and Oman at the mouth.

Iran has had and continues to have covetous intentions on Bahrain and other Gulf States and there have been previous uprisings in the part of the oppressed Shia majority and both these factors together with the movements in Tunisia and Egypt has made the regime and its Western Allies, notable the USA and the UK Jittery. The underlying problems are deeper and as elsewhere embrace the basic desires for democratic involvement and opportunities, freedom of expression, and potential for economic advancement.

The country has been ruled by the same family for 200 years and control and their ruler has been absolute although it does have a Prime Minister, uncle of the King and other family members hold the overwhelming majority of senior positions in ruling Council. It has developed a small Parliament which quickly became divided between Sunni and Shia religious groups seeking an Islamic state and when the voting went against the intentions to create a secular state in which women and Muslim interests were to be given roles.. Howver the Shia were largely excluded from government and other positions in the state by the Sunni minority and there was also significant corruption

It is my understanding that the regime did introduce recent improvements in wages and promised political and economic reforms in response to events in Tunisia and Egypt, but any good will was destroyed by the callous and brutal suppression of protesters on the roundabout area just outside the city centre. The government then accused the demonstrators of possessing guns and other weapons, refuted by eye witness reports from the international media.

As in Egypt the country has developed an educated and cultured middle class and the regime has supporters who benefited from government jobs and the profits from oil revenues and the older industry of pearl fishing. It was this middle class and often western educated and travelled section of society that is likely to have exerted influence on the King to control his relatives. It is also understood that the American president and British Foreign Secretary had direct contact with the crown prince after reports of 10 people killed and 500 injured. This immediately led to calls for the regime to be replaced.

However the Crown Prince appears to have intervened and in speeches in Arabic and an in English to CNN it is evident he is upset and determined to bring about change and investigate the events of the past days. The security forces have been withdrawn from the streets and protestors allowed to return and take control of the roundabout area setting up camp with food and medical supplies. It seems the absolute monarch has pulled back from the brink but whether this is enough to save him in the long term will depend on the action taken over the next days and weeks. Once you turn your guns on peaceful, albeit determined demonstrators, you are unlikely to be trusted again. The Crown Prince has to prove he was not responsible by arresting and prosecuting those who were responsible, even if they are also members of his own extended family.

The second flashpoint this week has been Libya, a socialist republic with a military dictator. This is a large country but with a comparatively small population of 6.4 million and where just over a quarter live in the capital city of Tripoli which remains the power base for the one of the most well known leaders in the world Muammar al-Gaddafi. For approximately 450 years 1551 to 1911 the country was controlled by the Turkish Empire and then by Italy until 1951 with substantial colonization by its people who formed 20 percent of the total. There was a substantial killing of the Bedouins who resisted with about half killed in battles or in camps. After a United Nations supervised independence led by its King a military coup in 1969 took place led by Gaddafi then a captain with other junior officers.

The Revolutionary Command Council of 12 came into being at that time and have remained in power. Unlike many Arab countries there is an established organisation of elected Local People’s congresses, some 1500 in total thus or one congress for every 4250. There are 32 regional congresses and the national Peoples Congress, There is considerable control over the media although criticisms are possible and initiated as a means of bringing reform. It is understood that the protests todate, which appeared small scale at first are calling for an end of the Gaddafi regime rather than for democracy. It is also a protest about who has power with the second city of Bengazi having been home for the opposition with the capital Tripoli being the power base for Gaddafi. Bengazi was where the monarchy had its palace nearby and the city has many of the institutions and organisations usually associated with a state capital.

Following the revolution Gaddafi closed the American and British bases and partly nationalised the oil industry. His approach was socialist rather than Communist but established close links with the Soviet Union and supported the Palestinian Liberation movement and other terrorists groups. In the 1980’s Libya was alleged to have been involved in a terrorist bombing in Berlin which killed two USA servicemen with the consequence that the USA undertook a bombing raid which led to several civilian deaths, including the adopted daughter of the Leader.

Over recent years the international issue has been the bomb in a USA plane in mid air over Scotland which in addition to the death of those on board the plane there were also deaths on the ground as well as destruction of buildings. Eventually a Trial of suspects took place in a trial of Netherlands and then the release of the only individuals convicted on grounds of terminal ill health, but after his return was greeted nationally in Libya he has remained alive. This issue created official tension between the USA and British Governments although in reality both the UK and the USA have been interested in developing relations with Libya because of its oil in land and off shore

The change in approach by the UK and USA took place after 9/11 and again following the action in Iraq Compensation has been paid to the families killed in the mid air explosion and those affected by the USA bombing. The regime has remained authoritarian with international concern on civil rights.

The latest information is that between 100 and 200 people have been killed with hundreds of other injured as the regime has announced it will not tolerate the protests. However in Bengazi the city administration, including the police and army units have sided with the protesters hence the decision of the national government to introduce its national guard/elite forces, including professionals bought in to try and ensure that the city remains within the regime. It may be threat the troops within their city military compound fear being over run and lynched and are therefore reacting with more and greater force defensively. It is difficult to see how the situation will end without further bloodshed.

The third flashpoint where deaths have been reported is the Yemen with its population of present 20 million and located at the end of the Arabian Peninsular. This is yet again a very different situation where there has been long standing problems between North and South Yemen

The country gained independence from the Turkish Empire in 1918 and established a monarchy until 1962. The North part of the country became a republic with the UK controlling the south and the port of Aden as a Protectorate. A communist form of government was formed in 1970 and the north and south became united only in 1990. The problem is that the Yemen has dwindling natural resources with 35% unemployed and an increasing and young population with 46% under 15 and a growth rate expected to result in an increase to 60 million by 2050.

Russia and China did provide help in the 1950’s. There was a return of over three quarters of a million citizens expelled from Saudi Arabia contributed to the unrest and civil war in 1994. There has been a close involvement between the Yemen and Somalia with 700000 Somalia citizens already in Yemen when another 100000 were accepted as refugees following their civil war and this may have matched the various moves of Yemeni into Somalia over previous centuries. There are also plans for a bridge linking the Yemen with Djibouti. The country contains several World Heritage sites.

After the civil war in the Yemen the International Monetary Union provided help to make fundamental economic reforms. The country was an ally of Saddam’s Iraq and backed the 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

It is has a democratic structure with a seven year term President, a 301 seat six year Parliament where the Prime Minster has to command two thirds support. The is universal suffrage at 18 but only Muslim’s may hold elected office. The first President elected in 1999 was re-elected in 2006 with international observers confirming that there had been some violence, violations of press freedom and allegations of election fraud. There is a religious based independent judiciary. There are also reports of corruption.

More recently there have been indications of just how volatile the country has become with an insurgency in he South in 2009 and an incident where official information is limited where either USA directly or the Yemen military under direction dropped bombs or rockets of what was believed to be an Al Qaeda training camp in the country in which 60 civilians, including 28 children were killed.

There are an estimated 70000-80000 Yemeni in the UK, with a quarter of this number in France. As with many fo the Gulf and North African states the population is divided into tribes as well as religiously between Sunni 52% and 46% Shia. There is a gulf between the ambitions of its constitution, Internationally agreed civil rights and everyday practice.

So far the protests have been on a massive scale and the number of death comparatively small, caused not by the intervention of government forces but from clashes between different interests. Whereas Egypt and to some extent Bahrain has the economic and financial base in which to address unemployment, poverty, and civil rights, it is difficult to believe progress in the Yemen will be possible without substantial foreign investment and financial help, unlikely while there is support for extreme Muslim beliefs and the worst of a Muslim state where women, critics and non believers have no rights and are severely discriminated against.

I was pleased to hear the USA Ambassador to the UK confirm my understanding and the reports of responsible commentators that there is not conflict or contradiction between having concern about Muslim extremists and having added worry over what will happen as more and more Arab countries become politically and socially unstable, and welcoming the of the general population to want to engage in democratic processes, to have an independent judiciary, a non political police, army and internal security services, in wanting an open media, equality between those of different and mixed genders, of providing equal opportunities for citizens regardless of their beliefs or lack of belief systems and so on.

I was interested by a recent Fox Chanel programme although drawing different conclusions. The programme wanted to warn everyone against encouraging movements supported by Shia adherents because some, notably the present controllers in Iran appear to have taken aspects of their bible teachings literally. The basic premise of Christian, Jewish and Muslim faiths is a resurrection after life of heaven and where there is a hell for those who whose life has involved acts of evil and which is controlled by devils. The Christian/Muslim/ Jewish literalists therefore see human earth world existence as a test period leading to an eternal post human existence in heaven or hell and that helping to bring the coming/second coming is to be encouraged.

All the three religions which originated within a small area of the Middle East and North Africa have their book of Revelations and period of the Apocalypse with the four riders heralding war, famine and death. There is the call of the martyrs for vengeance followed by earthquakes and natural disasters of increasing severity.

The angels then sound the trumpets to mark the destruction by fire, the poisoning of rivers and springs, plagues of locusts and a war in which a third of the population of earth are destroyed.

There is then further chaos and destructions in which the sun scorches the earth in great heat, the is a great earthquake and the final physical battle between the forces of good and evil where the rivers flow with blood.

There is victory by good over evil so that the devil is imprisoned for 1000 years, he escapes makes war but is then defeated. There is the last judgement where is settled those who are to be cast eternally into Hades and the lake of fire and those to are enter a new heaven replacing the old as God is revealed or words to this effect.

What this all mean in practice has been the subject of continuous interpretation by individuals since the words were first written or said, not by the originals such as Christ or Mohamed, but by subsequent followers. Unfortunately one of the most literal believers now has supreme power in Iran and therefore the sooner he is removed from his position the better for all of us and most of all for the majority of Muslims, just as there needs to be proportional action including war on those who seek to promote their own power and influence by exploiting situations of extreme poverty, religious suppression and intolerance in the name of a God and assisting in bringing about the end of human days by promoting chaos and destruction

The behaviour of the USA, the UK, Russia, China, Germany and other nations in the past, and recent past in countless instances towards Arabic and African nations and in to the colonization of Asia and Central and South America had contributed to the distrust, the suspicion and fear.

One can therefore be hopeful and fearful by the events this week in North Africa and Arabia.

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