Wednesday 20 October 2010

1946 Entente Cordial Militaire, the National Defence Review

Tuesday October 9th will go down in history as the day that a British Government, a Conservative led Liberal Democrat Coalition reshaped the Foreign policy, the country’s military and political status in the world for the first time since the creation of the Empire.

The new government faced two realities. The Defence Department had unfunded commitments of £35 billion, greater than actual agreed budget in the current year and in a situation where there were more civil servants than the combined numbers of sailors and airmen! Secondly there had been no review of commitments since the previous review undertaken before 9/11 and the development of cyber terrorism. In addition the Defence capability had to fit in the overall economic reality with a structural deficit which the Coalition planned to address.

Earlier in the day I heard the new Labour Defence spokesman talk in term which made me want to tear up my Party membership card, criticising the extent of cuts in expenditure including service numbers, reaffirming their commitment to replace the Trident submarine nuclear deterrent and generally sounding like a Tory back bencher.

I suspect that most people will not read the actual review which I am in the process of doing while I write and it prints, with one eye on Chelsea’s performance in Moscow and my evening meal of two pieces if chicken breast coasted in TexMex with tinned tomatoes and corn off the cob.

The forward begins with a reinstatement of British ambitions in the world, its responsibilities and values and which still means we have the fourth largest military capability in the world after the USA, China and Russia, and therefore we remain an essential member of the NATO alliance, in relation to support for Commonwealth countries and in the promotion of peace, of democracy and human freedoms worldwide. The country will also adhere to the Nato target of contributing 2% of gross national product.

I am particularly interested in the question about the continuing alleged need for a nuclear deterrent and while the Prime Minister and his Party are holding firm on this in fact the next funding allocation for the replacement has been put back until after the next General Election. While a 24 hour at sea use is to be continued financial savings are being achieved be reducing the number of onboard warheads from 48 to 40 and having an operational use of 120 instead of 160 and which an overall stockpile reduced to 180. This will achieve an immediate saving of £1.2 billion and a deferred saving of up to £2 billion. This is the first chink in rigid doctrinal approach of this part of the coalition.

A key feature of the Coalition approach is to bring together Foreign Office, Overseas Development, Intelligence and Business Affairs in with the Department of Defence in establishing an integrated and coherent approach to policy and strategy as well as use of resources. Other structural reforms are mentioned.

There is to be a strengthened Crisis Management Capability within the Cabinet office, as the challenge of civil emergencies, including natural disasters becomes part of the review. Dealing with civil unrest because of public sector job losses and other implications for the economic restructuring could be an issue although is not specifically mentioned.

I also found fo interest the disclosure that the government is aware that there are 38000 individuals involved in organised crime affecting the UK costing about £20 billion to the economy and society in general. The review recognises that this threat will increase over the next five years. And a National crime Agency is being established

It is also interest that despite the placing of a cap on new immigration from outside the EEC, the Financial review on Wednesday does envisage a staffing reduction in this area, as with the police, although less than originally. There is to be a Border Police Command supported by a National Border Security Group and a National Maritime Security Group

Given my own use of information technology over the past 25 years and some of the problems encountered the emphasis on combating cyber terrorism and use by criminals and the review gives recognition that great priority and additional resources are now required. There is to be a strengthened Office of Cyber Security

The first priority is to combat terrorist threats to the UK and with the UK and there is to be no downgrading with the assessment of a continuing and increasing threat from overseas and in relation to Northern Ireland.

I am not sure if the decision to withdraw the army of 20000 from Germany was previously announced but that decision is confirmed and with the need to deploy tanks and other heavy military vehicles which have operated as primarily a defence against a Soviet attack as well as a continuing reminder to Germany. This is a major reshaping of the British approach to Europe but far from being an anti European move, the Prime Minister signalled that the British and French governments had been working on a plan in which the two countries would use parts of their forces jointly. This is a welcome development which has been talked about for decades, but such has been the tie with the USA and the arms dealers that good intentions have not been translated into active and long term associations.

The signed forward with Nick Clegg was in effect the statement which the Prime Minister presented to the House fo Commons this afternoon.

The present review is designed to remain effective until 2010 but there is also a commitment to review the position in 5 years with the hope that this will become the practice. It is extraordinary that a review has not been undertaken before.

Among the implications of the review the Department pf Overseas Development is to concentrate half of its budget on national security and fragile states. Many Conservative and Military supporters have argued that this protected budget should be cut or even abolished. This is a compromise and smacks of the kind of reallocation of funds when the Labour administration insisted that lottery money could be used to supplement activities previously funded by central government

Working out the changes to previous plans is has not been easy although having found there is a commitment to build two aircraft carriers and cancelling would be more expensive than proceedings, the two will be built but one will not be used and their will be a delay in the other becoming fully operational

On page 24 we learn that the four regional divisional headquarters are to be reduced to one UK support command. At least two of the regional brigade headquarters are to be closed. There is to be reduction from six to five deployable brigades.

There is to be a reduction of 40% in the number of the Challenger main battle Tanks together with a reduction by 35% of heavy artillery vehicles

Harrier jets will be removed from service in 2011 and the Tornado fleet reduced. The number of the new Joint Strike Fighter aircraft will also be reduced so as to acquire those suitable for use on the retained carrier, The ordered Nimrods MRA4 will not be brought into service and there will be reductions or withdrawal from services of VC 10 and Tri Star Tanker/Transports, Hercules C130J Transports and Sentinel airborne ground surveillance aircraft.

Bases in Gibraltar, Cyprus and Falklands will be maintained but as previously mentioned all 20000 forces based in Germany will be withdrawn by 2020. However when it cones to serving men and impact on them of combat duty the review is not all about reductions. The Coalition will set up a 24 hour help line for veterans together with the appointment of 30 additional mental health nurses.

Considerable concern has been expressed about MOD procurement which in the past has provided a licence to make huge profits on the provisions which are never used or out of date when they become available. In 2009 the MOD spend £19 billion and it is estimated the contracts maintain employment for 300000. The Coalition intends to change procedures in order to achieve greater value for money and this will involve opening contracts to the global markets with the implications that British firms will have to reduce costs which will in turn affect wages and conditions of service.

I now come to the reductions in personnel. The Royal Navy will decrease by 5000 to 30000, and the army by 7000 to 95000, with the air force losing 5000 posts to 33000.

What is extraordinary that given the total present complement of three services

The main immediate changes will be to commence a substantial reduction in the civilian workforce has stood at 85000, that is more that the number of sailors and airmen. This is number will be reduced by 25000

There will be a 25% reduction in non front line organisations such as headquarters support and in Defence Equipment. This will include changes in the use of bases with closures and rationalizations saving £350 million a year while sales of holdings will achieve £500 million over the review period. £300 million is to be saved from service and civilian personal allowances, mainly from the return of those based in Germany.

The immediate response from the Conservative backbenchers was not as hostile as anticipated and the amusing moment was when Bill Cash, a passionate anti European appeared genuine in hoping that there would be progress after the years of talk about a close working relationship with France. Vive la Entente Cordial Militaire.

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