Sunday 26 September 2010

1482 British politics and Hurricane Gustav

9.40 am Tuesday 2nd September. So much has taken place over the past three days that I feel the need to write about that I am having to merge the work of three days into three parts, trying to create a meaningful perspective for myself. I suspect the most significant will prove to me the release of a Guardian newspaper article designed to put the British Prime Minister and his government under pressure just before measures are announced today to try and soften the effects of world economic turn down before the Political Party conferences. The news as presented by the rest of the media was the Chancellor had said Britain was facing the worst economic situation for sixty years. In fact he said the world was facing the worst economic slow down for sixty years and that Britain was better placed than most countries to cope because of the measures that had been taken by the Treasury and government over the past decade. Secondly he admitted that the British public had turned against the party and it was proving difficult to reverse the situation He could have added the British media never like good news, preferring scandal, dissent and problems, and at times become hysterical and out of proportion to the actual situation, although as a consequence that they can have a significant effect on how events turn out.

However there is no smoke without fire and the significance of what the Chancellor had to say was how he said it, using words regarded as intemperate in terms of the nature of his job. This may have be no more than a man relaxed going on holiday and having a break form all the pressures that had been placed on his shoulders over the past year as a consequence of decisions taken by the Prime Minister when Chancellor and then as head of the Government. It may be that the Chancellor was trying to break out of his image as Mr Cool and Boring and to ensure that the Prime Minister if he planned to move the Chancellor in the forecast reshuffle promoted him, for example replacing David Miliband thought to be after the job of the Prime Minister, rather than push him into some minor position in the government pecking order or dropped him to back backbenchers all together. Either way the domestic political news was overshadowed by three other events.

The most significant for Saturday, continuing through to later last night British time, was the nature of hurricane Gustav and the misunderstanding and at times ignorance of some British media journalists (and I include myself in this respect) about the significance of hurricane strengths with one 1 the first degree of wind speed to 5 the highest but which only one of three factors in terms of potential threat. The second and what proved the major factor affecting New Orleans was the combination of the height and the force of the sea surge. Too high and it would over flow the wall barriers designed to prevent the flooding of below sea level New Orleans, but if this was combined with force then barriers could be breached as happened with Katrina. The third factor is rainfall which is prolonged and intense to cause widespread flooding in its own right and where in the instance of Gustav the assessment was flooding would occur inland in Texas.

Last time there were various criticism because the President had appeared to react late, viewing the devastation by plane, that insufficient work had to been done to create defences, that the emergency response was in adequate and biased against the poor black residents and this lead to the resignation of the Federal Emergency services agency FEMA chief and that there was also insufficient action to prevent looting among those who stayed.

There was also the complication that the hurricane was due to hit landfall just as the Republican convention was getting underway with a keynote speech from the President Bush. For once everything went right. President Bush no doubt encouraged by the Party strategists and the Republican candidate cancelled his appearance and went to the joint interstate command centre in Texas to hear listen to reports on the situation from those involved (with media present) and to be able to congratulate everyone and therefore each other on the preventive action taken. This also kept Bush away from the Convention signalled that the Presidential Candidate was going to be his own man and not a clone of Bush as the Democrats had charged during their Convention.

Secondly the Mayor New Orleans and the State Governor of Louisiana had ordered preventive evacuation and some two million citizens had moved out of the areas likely to be affected, the majority going to relatives and accommodation under their own steam but others transport by the state and federal resources to special shelters in safe areas. This did involve at least three deaths in the movement of elderly from hospitals but this although tragic was minor compared to what happened with Katrina, but even so there would be investigation to ensure that all reasonable steps had been taken. In order to limit the damage and give New Orleans a long teem future some thirteen billion dollars is being spent although I do not know if this is just on New Orleans or the while area. I say this because however important New Orleans is as a city to the American economy this is only part of the significance of the area playing a crucial part the economy through the production of off shore oil and its distribution. Only a quarter of the work on replacement and extended defences has been completed in a programme which will take another three years. My understanding that this is why over 50000 citizens of New Orleans have still not been able to return to their home in the industrial area of the city because of fears that they would not be safe in the event of another major hurricane.

The third approach was to declare a curfew and bring substantially more security personnel to prevent looting or detain those who attempted to do so, with thousand more on standby if the city and other areas became devastated.
A question mark still remains about the future of New Orleans as a city but my impression that all the right things were done and worked and that had a different President and other political leaders been in charge, they could not have organised things better.

Yesterday I commenced to write about the weekend and these are my opening notes.

17.00 1st September 2008 and activity. The great scheme of things and my life little of anything will be remembered but for it was a time when I coped well with small difficulties and changed plans to meet several unexpected situations

17.30 I broke from the writing to check on the progress of hurricane Gustav. Earlier a BBC interviewer probably encouraged by her editor/producer, backroom team challenged a representative from the national hurricane centre whether the fact that the storm was downgraded from level 5 to level 2 merited the precautions which had been taken. I hate this kind of alleged news reporting and those responsible for it. One can imagine the situation. The forecast of the greatest storm of all time moving towards an devastated and still not recovered and where the renewal programme for New Orleans alone was only three billion dollars completed out of the planned thirteen million expenditure, mind boggling amount but necessary given that this is the area crucial to the production and distribution off oil/petrol gas for the whole of the United States. Immediately news people without an understanding what is involved for individuals and official and the supervising politicians, licking their lips about another visual and emotional horror with the prospect of also being able to criticise the politicians and officials over the lack of prevention measures and how the storm is then handled. So when not understanding whether a storm is downgraded from hurricane level 5 to 2 is only a matter of degree in terms of wind force and does not effect sea surges which was the problem in New Orleans or rain force quantity which can and is likely to cause major flooding inland, the issue becomes did you over react not under-react. The interviewee dealt with questions with diplomacy but force. I felt sorry for the reporter but not for those who briefed her without doing their research. Not good enough BBC. Give the number of deaths already caused in Cuba and the rest of the Caribbean and the number made homeless

At present water is coming over the canal in the industrial zone where 67000 people have been unable to return because the threat remained until all the new defences were completed but the walls have not been breached although two ships did lose their mornings.

It will be interesting to see if British and USA media now give praise or ignore the fact that the Federal and state administration got its act together and took appropriate preventive action in the face of a major natural phenomenon, although there will also be those who will look for any opportunity to publicise mistake and criticism.

There is already a good example of this in that it has been revealed that the seventeen year old daughter of the Republican Vice Presidential candidate is pregnant has decided to keep her child and marry the child's father is due course. This has become a major political issue as to whether it shows some weakness in the candidate and weakens the moral authority of her position. What is behind these attacks is the fear by those within the republican party that in choosing a woman with right wing views akin to Margaret the Party could swing more right and than centre left as they hoped under Senator McCain and individual Democrats and their financial backers will fear that the Republicans have established a stronger team than their own. It is the scum face of party politics and it will get worse as the campaign progresses.

I will leave until the next writing my first football match of the new football season and the extraordinary events of yesterday when first the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi Royal family bought the British Football Club Manchester City and then paid some 40 million Euros to but one of the regarded best strikers in the world from Real Madrid one of the top ten world football clubs, out bidding what has been the British wealthiest Football cub Chelsea owned by a Russian. This has very bad implications for the other football clubs, especially those which I support, but will have an extraordinary impact on the City of Manchester and on relations between Britain and the Arab World. However I will now include what happened prior to arrive at the Sunderland ground for the match.
8 am Sunday 31st August. I awoke after a reasonable night and going to bed late for what I hoped was going to be an enjoyable waiting Sunderland Live in the afternoon at 3pm. I finishing writing as early as I could with breakfast of toast bread and a hot drink. I then commenced the uploading of photographs of my visit to London and the visit the Millennium Dome 02, the speed launch trip and the embankment walks before commencing to eat the stir fry of pork roast chopped into chunks with the usual ingredients, an onion, a salad pepper, a courgette and some small French beans with their end chopped as these were beginning to fade. For noodles I used the second pack of Sharwood's prepared Thai ribbon noodles which only need ninety seconds in the microwave, or cooked direct in the pan. The portion of the meal was too big and I promised that I would reduce this on Monday and in the future.

Written10. 00 pm Sept 1st re 11 am August 31st I had look forward to attending my first life football of the season with Sunderland at home to Man City who had bought Shaun Wright Phillips back from Chelsea but only when getting the ticket ready realised that my seat was in row 1 not L which meant it was likely to be at the front which would give a new perspective, one I could not remember experiencing before. There would also be a problem if it rained

There had been some sun and the air felt good when I went to check but as I eat the lunch there was low cloud cover and as I drove toward Lidl's supermarket around 12.30 I could see that it was set mist rolling over the coast but not the cold moist kind and it still felt warm as I went from car into the store for milk and tins of salmon. I had eaten the last of the salami and the cheese. I also decided not buy processed ham given the recent information about that and comparing to cured ham, although I am not a great fan of cured ham either. It was going to have to be fish all the way or a plain salad, perhaps with chicken in the week when I did not have roast chicken for Sunday lunch followed by chicken stir fry. I had an umbrella and additional wet weather clothing in the car and would decide on reaching car parking. Although it was later than anticipated. There were three or four spaces available in my preferred area behind the bus station close to the Catholic Church.

Testing the feel of the weather again I made the first big mistake of the weekend and decided to leave the wet weather clothing and the umbrella in the car. It was a stupid emotional decision on the basis that to prepare for wet weather would increase its likelihood and vice versa.

13.45 31st August. Written at 11pm to midnight 1st September and revised 11 am September 2nd. I make my way towards the ground and on impulse decided to visit Keano's a dinky small pub in the shadow of the three story Victorian Wheatsheaf at the corner of the Newcastle Road and the junction leading towards Roker and Seaburn, with opposite the main road to the Football Ground and towards Washington. This grand public house was converted into a Casino night club fro several years until the new Casino opened in a purpose designed building which included the new car park opposite the new Multiscreen cinema. As I went on to the ground I discovered that the Wheatsheaf has reopened. And is back as a pub with security staff at the door. This is bound to affect the day to trade of Keano's which is now up for sale. Keano's is not the smallest pub in the land but is close comprising a small area before the bar where there is an old fashioned projection screen where it is difficult to see the action. There is a poll table now covered by a plain wooden board upon which drinks are placed and spilt and on the wall a good size TV screen which instead of showing the Southern premiership game there was the sectarian clash between the Protestant and Unionist supporters of Rangers and the Catholic and Republican supporters of Celtic, although both clubs have spent decades trying to eliminate the sectarianism by buying players from all over the world and of all religions. The Irish origin or related or politically connected drinker inside the pub showed their allegiance as Rangers scored two brilliant goals to go three one up before I left, the game ending four two. At Keano's I was able to get the only available seat to one side of the Pool table where three old men sat in two leather settees incongruous given the rest of the furniture in the pub. I ordered half a pint of Fosters and enjoyed twenty minutes of the televised game. Three police men entered the pub through one door and out of the second to check everything was in order. A feature of the pub is that dozens of Sunderland supporters congregate here on match days, drinking and talking football in the roadway outside and under the covered pavement. This is not a problem as this end of the road has no exist into the busy Newcastle Road and separate bus lane and stop adjacent. However it could be if Manchester City or other visiting supporters had come by car and also found a car parking space in the area around this another pub closer to the Catholic church. It is time to clean the ground floor of the house and have lunch and then write the Blog on the extraordinary events of the last transfer day of the new Football season.

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