Monday 17 May 2010

1930 From political necessity to political opportunity

Saturday morning 15th May and I find difficulty inbeing confident about predicting what will happen in British politics over the next Parliament. Will Coalition last the full five year term to May 15th 2015? What will happen to the two political parties forming the Coalition and to their leaders. What will happen to the Labour Party as a consequence?

During the morning I heard an interview on Five Live radio which I found very disturbing. The mother of the young man due to be extradited to the USA for having hacked into the Pentagon explained that because Clegg in particular but also Cameron had opposed the extradition, with the chief police man saying the action was spiteful. The extradition should be stopped and he tried in the UK. His lawyers had stopped the High Court hearing planned for later this month and contacted the new Home Secretary. This is the good test for the integrity of the new Administration. Does what is said in opposition carry forward to being in Government?

12.30 Sunday 16th May according to the Andrew Marr show which I am now watching one of the Sunday papers is saying that Labour Party former Member of Parliament, Frank Field is going to be a new Poverty Tsar. This could indicate an even broader coalition of interests wanting to create a new political process as well as changing the structure of Parliamentary democracy.

Earlier the Sunday Politics show South Shields was featured because of the declaration of David Miliband for the Labour Leadership. The venue was Coleman’s Fish and Chip restaurant in Ocean Road. The argument put forward by a local Councillor is that the election of David as Party Leader, and then as Prime Minister would be good for the town and for the North East to which I wholeheartedly agree. However while the first part should be possible, despite the standing of his brother in the same election and presumably of other candidates to be announced over coming weeks, becoming Prime Minister in a Labour Government should prove more difficult if the kinds of electoral reforms talked about in the Coalition agreement and by the two Party leaders in the coalition are implemented. My reaction is that David may have been hasty unless he is confident about how the Labour Party needs to be re-branded. It is good time to buy a new wardrobe of clothes but only if the body is in good shape. Mine is not, nor is the Labour Party with many in no mood to match what the Tory and Lib Dem leaders have done and are doing.

It seems that everyone in Labour is beginning to explain why the Party lost by getting major things wrong and being out of touch with their voters with immigration and recreating the status quo in relation to the bankers and speculators. John Denham rightly lists the achievements and then makes the important point that the government failed to engage the public or give them ownership of the changes.

There were bad mistakes over the past three years of the government, the decision not go to the electorate when there was opportunity, the abolition of the 10pence tax rate and calling a Labour voter a bigot for raising the concern of a whole range of Labour supporters about the feeling of being overwhelmed by new arrivals to the UK.

In a moment I will test if my reaction and hopes are reflected in the columns of the Times, the Guardian, the Telegraph and the Independent, but the omens on programmes such as Question Time and Any Questions and arising from some of the interviews on 24 hour TV indicates an attempt to challenge and de-stable the new Government before it has got the opportunity to show what it can do, and cannot.

They appear to be searching for the advocates of the old and discredited politics to point out not just the difficulties which will now be encountered but why the new approach is wrong. The worst example of this was Melanie Phillips and the political director of the New Statesman on Question who appeared biased and irrational to the point of hysteria. I did not expect them to immediately surrender their positions and accept coalition government and what this involves in the style and content of Government and politics but I found their reactions alarming. The BBC got it wrong and I was pleased that in subsequent news bulletins they highlighted the contributions of the three other contributors to the programme.

I am also interested if the intentions of the new Government will impact on the future of the monarchy and the aristocracy as well as the church of England as we should go further and move closer to the USA system with a directly led Presidential system with a united states of Britain with each state having their separate political administrations and assemblies. I cannot see the Labour Party moving into this territory. There is also need to re-examine the balance between capitalism and socialism which at present is being translated as changing the balance between state provision and free enterprise.

Although the future role of Frank Field has not be confirmed Will Hutton the highly regarded writer for the left in British politics, Editor of the Observer Newspaper 1996-1998 with a career in broadcasting and who now heads The Work Foundation, previously known as the Industrial Society, has agreed to head an inquiry into cutting top sector public pay in the UK and which has the objective of bringing gap in pay between the lowest and the top no more than 20 times compared to 30 to 40 now.

14.00 I will take breath after an excellent roast chicken with vegetables dinner and then continue drafting a private letter to David Miliband.

15.00 Time to get on with going through my notes, newspapers and print outs before England’s final against Australia in the 20 20 World Cup and the Young Musician of the Year Final which I may watch on the i Player after the next episode of Lewis.

First while I blame Gordon Brown and his supporters within government for failing to understand that the majority voters wanted political change, because of the expenses scandal and the traitorous behaviour of bankers and capital speculators, I am not joining those who now rubbish what he achieved and what he stands for. In contrast to Cameron and Clegg he has the achievements spanning three Parliaments behind him and I think it is a wise decision of his not to immediately resign from Parliament giving him time to work out what he wants do after considering the many offers which will come his way.

I am not surprised that the Prime Minister and his deputy, and other Coalition Ministers are having to defend the establishment of the LIB Dem Coalition to their activists and to some of their voters. The media is making much that a hundred or more people have resigned from the Lib Dem Party omitting to enquire, or if they have, not mentioning that these have been replaced by several hundred more who have joined as a consequence of Coalition.

The 24 hour media and the press started to behave behaving in their usual obnoxious way regardless of whether what they are doing is in the national interest and that of democracy. Hopefully it will dawn on the front line staff that they are being placed in a dishonourable position by their editors and paymasters and insist that they are allowed to act responsible. Of course if is proved in the future that Coalition Ministers have not done what they have promised or if they have failed to achieve objectives then this should be exposed and accurately reported on, but to start by trying to undermine the coalition is reprehensible and undemocratic. Obviously one expects the politicians and their media supporters of the old order to be bitter and behave unscrupulously, as they have done in the past, but the media needs to begin to keep its distance from them.

Today the Liberal Democratic Party is holding the special conference of Members which would have been required had they obtained the 75% majorities of the Parliamentary Party and National executive for the coalition. It is being held in private which is excellent as it enables everyone to have their say without having to look over their should about media reaction. The test will be if Mr Clegg is able afterward to be frank about what happened and therefore take the sting out of the leaks which will follow and be exploited in as damaging a way as possible by those against this development. From what was said after the meeting my impression is that the critics were allowed to have their say, and others to express their anxieties which I imagine the leadership will share, but my impression is that they obtained overwhelming support for the first time in over half a century of being in government rather than throwing stones from the outside.

For me the argument in favour of the Coalition outweigh all others. However much I might have wished otherwise, Mr Cameron was justified in becoming Prime Minister and forming the majority of the new Government. He will need to establish his authority in order to get things done as he would like and to avoid damaging opposition from within the Party by those who are not given a Government job or who oppose the concessions made to Liberal Democrat Policy. My impression is that having decided that a Coalition was right for the country and for him he has immediately seen the advantages in terms of freeing him to a greater extent than would have been the case from the extreme right wing of his party and conservative Conservatism. He can point to Lib Dem demands as the excuse for not going ahead with some things and going ahead with others not included in the programme. This point I subsequently noted is also made in the May14th Guardian.

I am just going through the latest information on Cabinet and found that this list does include Ministerial appointments made to date and will have to apologise for complaining that the list was no where to be found. In addition to George Osborn as Chancellor and David Laws as first secretary, both cabinet members three other ministers have been appointed Financial secretary Mark Hoban, Economic Secretary Justine Greening and Exchequer Secretary David Gauke. Mr Cameron has announced that there is to be an immediate independent audit of government finances and that he was shocked to find the nature of bonus deals agreed for the senior Civil service this year. Three Conservatives have also joined the Home Office Cabinet Minister, Damien Green Immigration, the man arrested over Home Office leaks, Baroness Pauline Neville Jones as Security Minister, previously the first woman to chair the UK Joint Intelligence Committee and Nick Herbert as Police Minister and who previously Shadow Justice Minister. He will work also with the Justice Minister, Ken Clark.

For Defence with Liam Fox is Nick Harvey of the Lib Dems previously Shadow defence spokesman, as Armed Forces Minister, and Gerald Howarth as Junior Defence Minister.

I am interested that Paul Burstow Lib Dem is Minister of State at Health under Andrew Lansley with Simon Burns, a new name to me, I had communication with Paul in relation to the death of my care mother. Sarah Tether of the Lib Dems is at Education with Michael Gov who has impressed me several times with what he has had to say. Nick Gibb who has shadowed education and skills is the other Minister of State with Tim Loughton the Junior Minister.

The great Vince Cable is to have with him Mark Prisk and John Hayes also names which I do not know. It will be interesting to work out later how many if any of the new Tory M.P’s have been brought straight into government because of their experience outside of Parliament.

Duncan Smith at Work and Pensions under Ian Duncan Smith has Chris Grayling previous Shadow Home Secretary and is therefore demoted outside the Cabinet without being humiliated and he also has Steve Webb of the Lib Dems a Professor at Bath University before going into Parliament, an expert on pensions and on the Left.

One of the great challenges of the new government has gone to Chris Huhne of the Lib Dems and he is joined by Charles Henry and Gregory Barker of the Conservatives. Lord Wallace, previously deputy first Minister in the Scottish Parliament has been appointed Advocate General for Scotland to the office of the Scottish Secretary with Danny Alexander.

Patrick McLoughlin is the Chief Party whip with a seat in the Cabinet but with a Lib Dem as the Senior Government Whip, Alistair Carmichael. Local Government is all Tory with Eric Pickles, Greg Clark for Decentralisation and Grant Sharpe in Housing. Dominic Grieve is the Attorney General and Jeremy Hunt for Culture Olympics Media and Sport with other Ministers to be appointed. The Conservative co Chairman is Baroness Warsi with a place in the Cabinet. It is evident that a number of Departmental Ministers of State for the Lords are to be appointed, I suspect until their credentials in favour of abolishing the Lords in its present form have been worked out. Similarly other Ministers will be appointed to Environment with Caroline Spellman and James Price. Alan Duncan is at International Development with Andrew Mitchell the Cabinet Minister. Theresa Villers is with Phillip Hammond at Transport and Owen Paterson is for Northern Ireland. Cheryl Gillan is at the Welsh Office. Sir George Young is Leader of the House replacing Harriet Harman who will now lead the opposition against the Government use of Parliamentary Time.

Francis Maude, one David Cameron’s allies in moving the Conservative Party forward, is in the Cabinet Office and can be expected to work closely with the Deputy Prime Minister. Also there is Oliver Letwin Edward Garnier is the Solicitor General. Universities and Science is to be with the Business Office David Willets.

I have printed out what must now be regarded as the first agreement and have decided to leave a detailed review until the full document or documents are completed and released over the next two weeks according to the interview with the Prime Minister this morning.

I like the May 14th Guardian article by Martin Kettle arguing that what David Cameron has done is more dangerous and significantly more significant than Tony Blair getting rid of Clause Four when he became Leader, because Tony was still away from being the Prime Minister. He suggests that Cameron has created a salon des refuses within his own party. Yes but I anticipate that even the most hard nosed will warm to his style and progress.

There is considerable dissent about the proposal to require a 55% majority vote to end a Parliament before five years. It should be evident that if the fixed term is to mean anything then it should not be easy to force a General Election and what happens elsewhere is that with a vote of no Confidence someone else attempts to form a coalition. I guess all those in Parliament against the Coalition lasting five years or against the major political changes proposed will vote against the 55% and for the moment it looks as if some others will also join in. The Guardian also had a nice little piece about the Yes Minister and Prime Minister series reminding of when Sir Humphrey explained that the country would survive any period in which the politicians were not in command. It is the a strength of the UK system and it was good to see the new Prime Minister giving praise about how the transition was handled. The Guardian correspondence page was headed A Very Conservative Coup bemoaning the prospect of a Tory led government for five years missing out on two fundamental points. It is not a Tory Government and had the Party obtained a majority similar to that they now have then it could have been for the full term. I agree with the letter from various interests including the Fabians and Compass that there should be no rush to elect a new Labour Party Leader and I believe Harriet Harman will do an excellent job over the coming months. Shirley Williams also had an excellent piece, rational, cautious but also understanding that this a great opportunity for her Party and for Parliament to make changes which will work in the best interests of everyone for the better.

The Guardian is right to suggest that Cameron has been forced by the coalition to row back from the position before the General Election on Europe but they misunderstand the achieved Lib Dem position on the future of a new Generation of Nuclear power stations. Elsewhere nuclear power, as here, has only been developed with substantial financial support from Government. Lib Dems behind the Coalition have persuaded the Tories to agree only on the basis of no further public funding. Commercial projects are unlikely to go ahead without funding commitment. Therefore it is unlikely that contracts for new stations will be agreed within the life of the new Parliament. Cameron this morning reiterated that the emphasis will be on reducing public expenditure rather than raising taxes, particularly VAT.

The Guardian also draws attention to the failure of all the parties to achieve a better proportion of women and those from ethnic minorities, stating Britain now ranks 52nd below Sweden, Rwanda and Afghanistan. The new Coalition Government has taken several steps backwards because of the cards that have been dealt as they say. I cannot see the situation being tolerated for long.

I have never been a fan of Margaret Hodge, but with help her successful defence of her seat in Barking against the leader of the National Front Nick Griffin merits praise whatever other political party is supported. Even more important all the 12 BNP members elected to the local Council in 2006 were defeated. Most of the credit goes to those who campaigned in the constituency but the holding of the TV debates was also a factor and the limited attention given by the media to the party.

Alexander Chancellor was also excellent in pointing the success of Nicholas Clegg, first in the TV debates and then in the negotiations with the Conservatives although in fairness it was the approach of the negotiators and the way they interacted which changed the position from one of political necessity to political opportunity.

The Daily Telegraph which could be expected to be disappointed by the turn of events in its official comment May 13th argues that the coalition is as new and full of unprecedented possibilities as an administration for years. The article ends that newness disappoints, and fades- that’s what newness does. But these transformations, as from a pantomime, and reminds us for the moment of everything we might once have hoped for. The Telegraph editorial begins “One things is evident from the seismic shift that has reshaped the Westminster landscape over the past seven days: politics is interesting again. Yesterday’s remarkable double act in the Downing Street rose garden suggests it could even be fun. The article concludes There will indeed be some bumps and scrapes...perhaps even some head on collisions. It is not going to be dull. The front page had Andrew Gibson declaring Men of different cloths, sharing the pulpit. Inside it was humble pie and good manners at table for two. The Telegraph believes that the coalition could last for the Parliament... Because they have no where else to go.

The Times opinion page has the headline: The Political earthquake in the rose garden with the sub line It almost felt if a divine hand was at work, bringing together two men to blow away years of staleness “Mathew Parris” is another individual who I have always have a lot of time for. He said, “ it was like witnessing a coup. Millions of viewers will have shared my impression almost of watching two men staging a putsch against their own political parties, against the entire British political system, and against the ingrained assumptions of more than a century of parliamentary government. Think again said the moment, Almost all over Britain a very large number of people, I suspect, were thinking again. Mr Parris is quiet right that within the life time of the Parliament, perhaps even a few months into the future, those of us who feel the earth moved and refuses to settle back as before, will be shown to have been idealistic and naive yet again. Mathews concluded that as they spoke, for him there was a palpable lifting of the ghastliness of the past few years. maybe Mr Cameron was right: it does not have to be this way. Jack Straw expressed relief at the loss of office in the same paper and Leon Britain for whom Nick Clegg worked believes that combination of Tory pragmatism and Liberal idealism could be a winner for Britain. David Aaronovitch is confident that the New Politics is here and hopes there will now be new votes. The main casualties are the Troglodytes of all parties, he said. Brilliant I say, but we must continue to be aware of the threat they pose, worse than any jilted lover. The Times front page says A very British revolution.

Simon Hughes has gone up in my estimation several notches over the past few days. He would have preferred a coalition with the Labour Party but accepts that in the event what has happened is the best possible outcome of the election for liberalism. This is also my point. Do people really think the country would be better if the old politics under the Conservatives or Labour Party had continued as before. It may still do so but I strongly believe the architects of the Coalition will work hard to provide their view of the political future is better.

One of the several interesting firsts which the coalition has immediately progressed is to hold a meeting of the new National Security Council, a development which I am perplexed has not occurred before. The Telegraph mentions that the state security services MI5 MI6 and GCHQ, the armed forces through the Chief Of Defence staff, with individual services attending as required the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence and the Home Office are mentioned. No special operations here I suspect. Surely these individuals have met before and on a regular basis

This morning there was a press conference at the Treasury. Such a conference not been held for several years with the Chancellor having to joining the Prime Minister at Downing Street. The Important point being made is that the process of finding £6 billion this year has commenced. The spending position in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland will remain as already agreed until next year, or at least the autumn spending review. The second is that the Chancellor has promised has delegated responsible for auditing the finances and presenting the forecasts to a new and independent body who will advise the Chancellor and future chancellors if they are on target or not. The main reason is to ensure that the budget of taxation and spending decisions fits the figures rather than what all chancellors have done in the past is to fix the figures to fit the budget. It was also quickly evident that that the men from different political parties have trust and confidence in each other. It augured well and is likely to ensure their parties are with them. It was a good start to the new week.

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