Friday, 7 May 2010

1926 a Conservative and Liberal Democratic government?

Just sixteen hours ago the Voting ended in the 2010 British Election. At a few seconds after 10pm a study of how over 15000 people in over 100 constituencies voted, commissioned by Sky TV, the BBC and ITV suggested that the Conservative Party would have some 25 seats more than the most optimistic of polls had been forecasting and nearly 100 seats more than in the present Parliament and Labour would have about 100 seats less with the Liberal Democrats having the same and other parties also about the same. This was something of a shock because all the opinion polls since the first Leader’s Television debate, and a surge in the Liberal Democratic vote after the performance of Mr Nicholas Clegg, suggested they would have increased in representation of between 20 and 40 seats, drawn from both Conservative and Labour held seats. Such a break down would have led not just to no one Party having an all round majority but to a change in the electoral voting system.

Sixteen hours later the actual declared result is that the Conservatives have 306 seats an addition of 99 seats, the Labour Party 258 seats - less 91 seats and the Liberal Democrats only 57, 5 less than previously. The Scottish and Welsh Nationalists 9, a gain of 1, Northern Ireland Parties 17, 1 Green Party Member and the House of Commons Speaker. There is one seat where following the death of a candidate voting will take place later.

The Conservatives are therefore 20 seats short of an overall majority and therefore do not have the right to automatically form a new government.

In terms of the popular vote and a turn out which was variable over the country the conservatives only obtained just over 36% of the votes, between 5% and 10% lower than the three Conservative Governments led my Lady Margaret Thatcher and that of Sir John Major. This is less than some opinion polls were forecasting and considerable less that they were getting in the opinion polls over the course of the Gordon Brown government. Labour on the other hand gained 29% of the votes, slightly better than was forecasted but the Liberal Democrats several points less with 23%, up in total and percentage from the 2005 election despite the overall loss of seats.

Before moving on to discuss the implications of this situation there have been only a handful of surprising results. Peter Robinson, the first Minister in Northern Ireland was defeated after a family scandal and issues raised about some transactions and he was replaced by the first representative of a Party called the Alliance of Catholic, Protestant and other voters previously members if the traditional parties in Northern Ireland. The other result of interest in Northern Ireland was the defeat of the official Conservative and Unionist candidate by a former Unionist who left the party because of the tie up with the Conservatives once more and who dramatically increased her majority. This result is significant because it means that in Northern Ireland the Conservatives have no Members and in Scotland they failed to make progress, remaining the fourth party in terms of the total votes cast. Only in Wales did the Conservatives make progress with a gain of a couple of seats. Labour lost two former Home Secretaries, Jacqui Smith and Charles Clark and the Lib Dems their colourful member for Montgomeryshire, a Lib Dem stronghold for 100 years. The Conservatives also failed to gain some important Labour seats in London, the Midlands and the North West.

There were also three important other results on the night. The British National Party did not gain a seat and only obtained just over half a million votes dramatically down on its vote in the European Elections. The Anti European United Kingdom Independence Party also failed to gain a seat with just under 1 million votes but The Green party gained its first ever seat in Brighton. Similarly Respect, George Galloway’s Party lost its only seat as did the only independent sitting member in the Wyre Valley.

Before the election campaign took place when the prospect of no political Party having an overall majority was indicated, the Government, assisted by the Civil service prepared a guide to the constitutional position and procedure. Mr Brown as Prime Minister and his Ministers, unless defeated in the election would remain in office until he or another became confident they could form a government which would enable them to present and pass in Parliament a programme of legislation and policy statements-The Queens speech, covering the first year of office as well as indicating the course of government over the Parliament. Secondly there would have to be confidence that measures to raise and spend public money can be passed and in this respect the Conservatives had announced that an emergency budget will be presented within 50 days of taking office to reduce current expenditure in the present financial year by £6 billion.

The Prime Minister announced that Civil Servants would be prepared and available to facilitate formal meetings between Parties to see if a government could be formed able to pass legislation and raise and spend taxes. During the election when asked what his terms would be for participation a coalition or agreement with another Party, Mr Clegg stated that if the Conservatives were the largest party with the largest number of votes, then it was their right to first attempt to form a government rather than the attempt to do so with the existing Government. On returning to the Liberal Party Headquarters this morning Mr Clegg repeated what he had previously said, that based on the results declared at that time it was for Mr Cameron to see if he could form a government. This was not a surprise to me or to the Government.
Mr Brown returned to Downing Street to continue working as Prime Minister and issued a statement indicating the Civil Services as previously stated was available to facilitate meetings. What happened in 1974 the last occasion is that civil servants can help with the provision of agendas and the taking of minutes. Mr Brown appeared at 12.30 to further explain the situation, in part to calm the financial markets who were already showing volatility following riots in Greece at the terms under which the rest of the ECC involved with the Euro are prepared to financial support the Greek economy. The British Chancellor would be attending a meeting this evening in this respect.

He then added that he understood and accepted that following the result of the election it was right for Mr Clegg to in effect invite Mr Cameron to negotiate with him over a possible agreement or alliance which would provide a stable government, if possible for the life of the Parliament. He added that if this was not possible he was willing to talk to any of the Parties about an alternative solution, highlighting his willingness to give priority to electoral reform through a referendum, and on economic policy to avoid a further recession, including the reform of income taxation and much else in the Liberal Democratic Manifesto, something which I commented on when looking at the two documents.

This was followed by Mr Cameron thanking the British people for their support and his colleagues and Party workers for their effort but then drew attention that they had not obtained an overall majority and on the importance of a strong and stable government. He then indicated in broad terms the areas on which he would find it difficult to compromise and those areas where he felt there was already agreement with the Liberal Democrats and where he was prepared to compromise in negotiations. He accepted that he could attempt to govern as a minority government, as many Tory colleagues and commentators were advocating, but this was not the best way forward in the national interest. He admitted than any deal would upset some colleagues and members of both their parties but the situation was different and he and Mr Clegg had to respond to the mood of the country as demonstrated by the results, given the nature of their improvement and the losses of the Government party. Later a statement was issued that there had been contact between the two Party Leaders and that they had agreed to explore further two issues, the same as mentioned by Mr Brown on electoral reform and taxation. Each Party has announced the four members of their negotiating teams who will meet tonight and tomorrow while the respective leaders take some rest. If it looks as if an agreement is possible this will be discussed with the Parliamentary members of the Party, other Party figures and advisers on Sunday and announced late on Sunday or early on Monday when Mr Brown will tender his resignation and Mr Cameron will move into number 10 and commence to formally create his government and prepared the programme for the Queen’s speech.

I want to make the point that although there has been endless talk and debate in the 24 hours news programmes and special election programmes as if what has happened is spontaneous, it will all have been planned long before the election including the areas upon which there could be negotiation and comprise and the areas where there is not. The media had commented that although the public has had their say based on the Manifesto‘s, and TV debates now what actually was to happen would be fixed by deals worked out in secret by a few men although I did spot one female among the Lib Dem Team.

Does this mean that by early next week Mr Cameron will be in Downing Street inviting Conservative colleagues and some Liberal Democrat Members into the government and Cabinet? Possibly. There are three fundamental considerations facing both leaders. First can Mr Clegg and Mr Cameron work together and agree on sufficient aspects of their programmes to achieve agreement? There are arguments for and against this, especially as Mr Brown and members of the Labour Cabinet have stated they are prepared to agree to the two main issues of Liberal Democratic priority.

Secondly can any agreement command the support of the existing senior colleagues in the two political parties as well as their Members in the House of Commons and in the House of Lords. Within the past hour Sir John Major suggested that Mr Cameron and Mr Cable should be given Cabinet seats while former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine did not think there would be any agreement and Mr Cameron should go it alone, adding that in any event he thought there would be another General Election within the year.

He raised the third issue which is what would a deal or no deal do for the Parties at the subsequent General Election, given that there are always a number of by-elections during a Parliament? He, many other Tories, political commentators and newscasters have spent the past weeks and last 24 hours saying that under no circumstances was the continuation of Mr Brown as Prime Minister acceptable and that any deal with Mr Cameron would be suicide for the Liberal Democratic Party. There is much talk of Mr Brown clinging to office with his finger tips and such like.

I have commented before on the role of the media and the press in the election but the fundamental point is that they did not stand for election and while they are able to exert influence on the public and on politicians, they are not in government and this is a matter for the politicians to resolve in the first instance with the assistance of the Civil Service, including a situation in which Mr Cameron forms a minority Government.

What is evident is that Mr Brown and Mr Clegg could achieve an on going working majority with the support of the Nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, and presumably the new Green Party Member, in a situation where the elected Sinn Feign Members will not take up their seats. The aggression and sometimes fury which some Tory Politicians and Commentators are addressing this possibility is a cause of concern, as is the situation where it appears that thousands of individuals were prevented from voting by a number of returning officers who had failed to provide adequate staffing to cope with the demand. In some situation there is evidence that people were brought into the polling officers and issued with voting papers before the ballot boxes were collected and some where the stations were kept open to ensure everyone queuing voted. In others where legal advice was taken and the Electoral commission consulted the official rule book was followed. I hope that where the local officers failed to provide adequate staffing or make arrangements for those queuing to attend other centres, individuals will not be allowed to hold such offices again.


Earlier I wrote this: It is just past 10pm on Election Night. The voting has closed and the counting has commenced. All three news channels have used the same exit poll with over 15000 individuals in over 100 constituencies with an astonishing result with the Conservatives 307 seats. Labour 255 the Lib Dems 59 and others 29 which would make the Tories the largest Party without an overall majority but able to form a minority government unless a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats is struck. The shock is a forecast in the reduction not an increase in the number of Lib Dem seats. All the politicians and commentators are amazed that with Labour and Lib Dems running with the same percentage of votes over four weeks Labour could end up end up with four times the number of seats.

The second development is extraordinary and outrageous in that voters in several parts of the country have been turned away despite queuing for hours and leading to protests, sit ins and blocking of ballot boxes leaving the area. If the results in any of these situations are close then one can anticipate legal challenges, particularly if it affects the overall position of who governs the country. That it has happened is a national scandal and the returning officer involved should be sacked.

The first three seats declared are in the area of my former home in Sunderland and where in safe Labour seats there has been a swing away from Labour to the Conservatives, the United Kingdom Independence, Party and the National Front but only a marginal swing to the Lib Dems. The other interesting aspect of the Sunderland result is that three women have been elected where there were three men.

It is 4am and the outcome is still uncertain. The past six hours have been fascinating as after the shock of the exit poll and despite wide variations in turnout and swings in voting, the exit poll is beginning to look accurate. The Liberal democrat vote has not held up across the country and where the contest is between the Lib Dems and Conservatives the Conservatives had been holding or on winning back seats. There was great excitement early on when a Conservative won target seat 136 which would mean that Mr Cameron could gain an overall majority and several Conservative spokesmen and commentators forecast this would happen while other were gleeful at the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. I hope tapes of what they said will be played back to them for comment. Labour then also held on to some seats which were expected to fall were being held and what became also evident is that the personalities and reputations of individual candidates was an important factor and that because the number of changes with about half the new House of Commons being new members several Labour candidates were not successful because they were unknown, especially when they were up against known local candidates. However there was also evidence that money was an asset Zac Goldsmith won Richmond Park with a big swing against the well known and popular Susan Kramer of the Lib Dems.

I was impressed with the thank you speech of Gordon Brown and did not share the view of some commentators that his body language revealed that his days as Prime Minister were coming to an end.

David Miliband was one of several successful Labour Ministers interviewed who immediately appeared willing to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats to prevent David Cameron and his policies taking over.

I also thought that Mr Cameron was indicating that in the event of not getting an overall majority he was willing to cut a deal in the National Interest because of the financial situation.

I went to bed around 5 am and was up again around 8 am to learn if there had been any change.

My approach to the evening was to watch two news channels with the BBC on the Laptop and Sky on the television using the desktop to view the BBC information pages. I had planned to also make detailed notes throughout the evening.

I drank a bottle of Asti beforehand and this always makes me sleepy so by about 1 am I was already tired but the events were of such interest that I watched rather than typed, researched or went to sleep. I also stuck with Sky changing over to ITV as I became increasingly irritated with the Andrew Neil party in which he interview celebrities as the wine flowed. This did not give the impression of a serious moment in British political history.

I have had a thought that David may want an alliance with Nick Clegg in order to distance himself from Tory policies and commitments which were included to placate his old guard and similarly Nick Clegg is not wedded to the more radical and almost socialist aspects of his Manifesto. I have commented that I thought the two men were interchangeable and different from the Prime Minister. I was concerned that Vince Cable is not part of his negotiating team but later it appeared that Mr Clegg met up with Mr Cable and Simon Hughes after his team had returned from their first meeting with Mr Cameron’s Team. I was then even more interested by what Michael Portillo had to say on news night when he was emphasise the importance of the opportunity to provide stable government and to change British politics in a fundamental way and that the implication of this would involve major compromises which would result in some voters and activists switching as a consequence. On this basis I believe that a deal is possible although there will be plenty of people speaking out against from all sides.

The big question is can both create a new form of politics which would see them also agreeing on a different form of electoral voting and still remains separate political parties. Could there be a new Conservative and Liberal Party? I think not

No comments:

Post a Comment