When I returned from my recent visit to London I could not remember how to transfer the notes made on my lap top to the desk top via a memory stick USB device but this morning, having had an interrupted but long night of sleep from 11pm until 6.45am, having washed up from before going away and also having shaved and washed myself, and drunk a well made cup of coffee, I suddenly knew how to do it, and therefore I recommence the publishing on Myspace and Google in some form of chronological order.
In order to mark the commencement of my 71st year I decided to reflect further on the coming year while on a private visit to the Midlands, although there are aspects which I intend to write about, food, a performance of the film Alice in Wonderland in 3 D with Johnny Depp as a soulful Mad Hatter and a short walk in Clumber Park, south of Worksop in the northern part of Sherwood Forest.
I did have an excellent journey to and from the Midlands over the extended first weekend of March as the weather continued to be sunny with cloudless blue skies, but cold, especially at night, after which it became necessary to use the remaining windscreen defrost in the early mornings. However the road conditions for driving were near perfect compared to my horrendous experiences before Christmas.
There was one potential problem about which I was 99% confident, but where because of a lack of due care there was tiny amount of uncertainty until my return. Returning to the car after an enjoyable luncheon stop, I found that I had left the front driver’s side door unlocked although the rear side door was closed. I noticed that there was no shoulder bag with a carefully information folder, including confirmation of the accommodation, Cineworld vouchers and a pair of 3 D glasses, spare glasses, utensils, small umbrella, vitamins tablets, notebooks and such like. I was confident that I had left the bag on a chair in the day room as having arrived early at the restaurant only a handful of parties had left before my departure and only those going to the restaurant parked vehicles with no passing pedestrians. However , as I have said, while confident I would find the bag on return there was a tiny element of uncertainty. As I believed it was where I ahd left it on the morning of departure.
That I was able to set off early and fresh was itself a notable development, after almost two weeks of unsettled and abnormal sleeping patterns, with going back to bed a couple of times during the day, going to bed tired out well before midnight and rising in the early hours. I knew what the problem was, a lack of fresh air and exercise during the day, but it was so cold out and I wanted to get on with bringing my work up to date and the house in a better condition after the London trip that I succumbed to the unsatisfactory regime. Now that I have returned and with a second trip to London before the month ends I must be disciplined and have some daily activity in the fresh air.
I had intended to get the car radio looked at which hopefully might only involve a change in fuse rather than an expensive replacement, but I put this off again faced with a dentist bill for £200 after breaking a tooth and needing a crown replacement. I wanted to listen to the Prime Minister’s interview before the Iraq inquiry and fortunately found that a small radio placed on the dashboard was sufficiently audible to hear what was being said throughout the morning, and later I was able to watch part of the afternoon session on television. I am certain that history will regard the appearance as the defining moment of his Premiership, especially if the Party is able to win an outright majority at the General Election, or remain the largest political party in the House of Commons and therefore operate as a minority government or enter into a formal alliance with another party.
Unlike Mr Blair, Mr Brown was confident from the introduction and determined to get his message over, simply and clearly by constant repetition insisting that the Inquiry saw the Iraq War in the broad perspective of the changed international situation following the end of the cold war with Russia and China, the emergency of rogue and failed states with the resources to acquire weapons of mass destruction and the development of international terrorism and the suicide bomber. In fairness the Inquiry allowed him explain his position in a way they refused to do with Mr Blair and which in my judgement will mar the independence of their final report. It has been evident that they have been too influenced in the wrong direction my media criticism partly politically fuelled by Murdoch interests in particular, having switched support from Labour to the Tories. His papers in particular along with others have by implication been talking Britain down, have shown themselves not to be true patriots. I say partly because I accept that the media, has responded to the fact that a majority of the population were opposed to any military involvement and that this opposition was fuelled following the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, the failure to understand the political and social situation in Iraq and to plan effectively for winning the peace in whatever situation was found after the military battles were won and the regime was ended.
The media has also reflected and in some instances exploited the grief and party politics of some relatives and in this respect Mr Brown did not make the same mistake of Mr Blair and at the beginning and at the end of his appearance he communicated his understanding of the nature of warfare, especially the impact upon British relatives and friends of those killed and severely injured as well as on civilians in the country of operation. It was subsequently with pleasure that I learnt that the Hurt Locker had been awarded the best film Oscar in the early hours of Monday morning and that the Director and Screen play writers had also won Oscars plus for Best Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, six in total. I also intend to lend my support to the campaign to make retrospective back to the start of the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns and then to those killed or severely injured in Northern Ireland.
Only after listening to the Prime Minister did I catch up with Any Questions, TV and Radio, Friday’s Daily Politics, Thursday’s Late Night Politics show and the Andrew Marr Show. Clare Short in her evidence gave the impression that Brown had complained to her of being left out of the political loop in the run up to the decision taking and the timing of decision taking to join the USA in a full scale invasion. What quickly became clear is that Mr Brown disagreed with any implication that he shared in her and the reservations of others about British involvement in the War or that he was deprived of essential information upon which to form a view within the Cabinet and parliamentary decision taking.
He listed the occasions that he ahd received private briefings from the then Prime Ministers, other government Ministers and the intelligence services.. It also has to be remembered, that because of difference about who should be Prime Minister and Part Leader Gordon controlled domestic politics through the Treasury and the PM foreign affairs, especially over Ireland, the Middle East and USA relations, but with both having a role in relation to Europe E E C issues. It suited Gordon not to be over involved with International politics, especially Ireland and the Middle east where things could go badly wrong.
However on the main issue, the decision to go to war he was clear. He was fully in favour although for very different reasons from those which Mr Blair was allowed to state. His message is that the British electorate and other nations ahd still to grow up to the reality of how the world had become since the ending of the cold war and the establishment of a broad stability in the relations between Britain, France, Germany, the USA and Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada and India and Russia and China. On should perhaps add Italy and Spain on Europe. His argument is that these countries can no longer standby from failed states where entire populations are at risk from hunger or disease and the consequences of civil wars, especially if such actions threaten the position of other countries, and a region in particularly or directly threaten the balance of commercial and political relationships in general. In addition there was problem of terrorist and anti democratic groups within states with the capacity to link worldwide and causing significant deaths among civilians as well as military and police services. He went on to point out the past failure of international organisations, particularly the UN to intervene effectively as remonstrated by the failure of the Iraq family led regime to implement the dozen resolutions demanding compliance.
Mr Brown nevertheless emphasised the importance of the diplomatic initiatives and of Blair’s, the Cabinet and Government commitment to finding a diplomatic solution and the importance of the French veto about a second resolution on forcing the USA and the UK into action because of how any further delay before intervention would have been interpreted by Iraq and others. He also emphasised the importance of the determination of the Attorney General’s advice in Cabinet on the legality of intervention and the protection of Ministers and the military from any subsequent legal challenges, followed by the endorsement in Parliament. The approach taken by the Prime Minister was courageous because it will be used by those who want to attack him for supporting the war although it severely undermined those who hoped he would distance himself from the decision and cast the blame on Blair
It must have been politically tempting for him to try and distance himself from the decision to go into the war given the opposition at the time and which has built up since because of the failure to find evidence of the continuing possession of weapons of mass destruction, the subsequent problems arising from the failure to establish an effective plan for the immediate reconstruction of the country according to the situation found on the ground, and the understandable reaction to the loss of the young lives in Iraq and in Afghanistan. To my mind Mr Brown showed an honesty and integrity head and shoulders above all the other politicians, apart from Mr Blair who have appeared at the Inquiry.
The other issue wish the Opposition political parties, war critics and some relatives of those killed in the war have levelled against Mr Brown is that he failed to provide the military with the funds in time to they were adequately equipped with body armour, appropriately protected armoured vehicles against road way and road side explosives, and helicopters to enable movement of ground troops and to attack enemy positions. Mr Brown was also clear and unequivocal. From the outset he had told the Prime Minister that no military option should be ruled out because of cost and that he had not turned down any request for additional funds, either by using the designated emergency war fund, using funds from the agreed annual budget, or seek major changes to that budget. However he was also honest that the Treasury did not always agree on the total amount requested.
Several former military leaders were quick to disagree with the precise form of words. What the public were not told is that some have already aligned themselves to Tory party or already supported the Tory have understandably become anxious they are may not achieve their paid governmental or advisory role if the Tories do not form the next government. Some are defending their own position for not having ensured that existing funds were allocated to need that is the right equipment found its way to the right people at the right time. In this respect I believe there is valid criticism that the campaign commenced too quickly from the British viewpoint and the victory came too quickly so they were faced with three challenges. First the equipment did not get to right people at the right time. Secondly the situation on the ground was very different to that understood to be the situation beforehand and thirdly the U S A did not appreciate what was involved in regime change reconstruction.
What was also impressive is the way Mr Brown did not hesitate from accepting the way the decision to embark upon the war had been taken and the political and administrative process in planning and conducting the campaign had to be adjusted within the UK and internationally according to the changing circumstances of the War. Over the weekend I visited Clumber Park in Nottinghamshire, the 3000 acre estate now owned by the National Trust but which in war time had been taken over my the War Department as the largest ammunition store and as the test area for a trench digger. Although the monster digger came to work it was never put into production because the nature of warfare changed from that which had existed throughout the First World War and then in the second. Much of the investment in military technology is wasted because it is out of date before it is used and the military are not as good at monitoring and controlling expenditure adjusting priorities to changing circumstances as they would like us to believe. There was a high party political content in much of the analysis which followed which I believe will rebound strongly on David Cameron who has an had increasingly bad couple of weeks.
It has been difficult to assess the impact of his appearance at Chilcott upon the forthcoming General Electorate but I would suggest neutral to positive, hence more attention was given in the subsequently political programmes to the positions of Lord Ashcroft, William Hague and David Cameron with the latter appearing to either liars or fools. This is strong language for me
The response of Carol Vorderman and Boris Johnson on Question Time sums up Tory embarrassment and disquiet at the revelations. There was a similar reaction from Ken Clark. Carole Vorderman appeared hysterically aggressive attacking the approach of personality assassination with a plea for an election on policies which confirmed my impression of her as great with words and numbers but politically naive. Obviously briefed by the Tory central office she tried to side step the main issue by concentration on the position of Non Doms, those who only pay a minority, if any taxes, to the UK Government. It is evident that in democracy such individuals should play no part in the political process and would also query their ability to vote or have control of media sources.
It is only since my return that I saw the reaction of Michael Portillo and he was in no doubt that the Party has been severely damaged and needed to find a way to stop the Haemorrhaging. On a different track David Mellor was equally specific on telling Cameron that he had to get a better act together as hew as failing to send a clear message of Tory difference from Labour which was likely to result in the electorate settling for the devil one knows. The Tory approach has been attack as the best form of defence. On this issue the approach could prove fatal. Ashcroft’s betrayal
Will haunt the General Election and could cost seats in the very marginal’s he has attempted to buy with his politically tainted money. During the expenses scandal Mr Cameron was quick to turn some of his colleagues into political outcasts because it suited his overall interests. His failure to act against Mr Ashcroft and to make a pathetic plea that he had only learnt the truth during the last weeks could prove his electoral downfall and if he fails to win the election or form a government even a minority government, it is he who will be the outcast along with George Osborn. The Party will swing back tot he right and out of office for further a decade. This is the enormity of the challenge which Ashcroft now poses. He has to leave the House of Lords on a voluntary basis. Keeping his title and his money and behind the scenes influence on the candidates and policies of the Party
In order to mark the commencement of my 71st year I decided to reflect further on the coming year while on a private visit to the Midlands, although there are aspects which I intend to write about, food, a performance of the film Alice in Wonderland in 3 D with Johnny Depp as a soulful Mad Hatter and a short walk in Clumber Park, south of Worksop in the northern part of Sherwood Forest.
I did have an excellent journey to and from the Midlands over the extended first weekend of March as the weather continued to be sunny with cloudless blue skies, but cold, especially at night, after which it became necessary to use the remaining windscreen defrost in the early mornings. However the road conditions for driving were near perfect compared to my horrendous experiences before Christmas.
There was one potential problem about which I was 99% confident, but where because of a lack of due care there was tiny amount of uncertainty until my return. Returning to the car after an enjoyable luncheon stop, I found that I had left the front driver’s side door unlocked although the rear side door was closed. I noticed that there was no shoulder bag with a carefully information folder, including confirmation of the accommodation, Cineworld vouchers and a pair of 3 D glasses, spare glasses, utensils, small umbrella, vitamins tablets, notebooks and such like. I was confident that I had left the bag on a chair in the day room as having arrived early at the restaurant only a handful of parties had left before my departure and only those going to the restaurant parked vehicles with no passing pedestrians. However , as I have said, while confident I would find the bag on return there was a tiny element of uncertainty. As I believed it was where I ahd left it on the morning of departure.
That I was able to set off early and fresh was itself a notable development, after almost two weeks of unsettled and abnormal sleeping patterns, with going back to bed a couple of times during the day, going to bed tired out well before midnight and rising in the early hours. I knew what the problem was, a lack of fresh air and exercise during the day, but it was so cold out and I wanted to get on with bringing my work up to date and the house in a better condition after the London trip that I succumbed to the unsatisfactory regime. Now that I have returned and with a second trip to London before the month ends I must be disciplined and have some daily activity in the fresh air.
I had intended to get the car radio looked at which hopefully might only involve a change in fuse rather than an expensive replacement, but I put this off again faced with a dentist bill for £200 after breaking a tooth and needing a crown replacement. I wanted to listen to the Prime Minister’s interview before the Iraq inquiry and fortunately found that a small radio placed on the dashboard was sufficiently audible to hear what was being said throughout the morning, and later I was able to watch part of the afternoon session on television. I am certain that history will regard the appearance as the defining moment of his Premiership, especially if the Party is able to win an outright majority at the General Election, or remain the largest political party in the House of Commons and therefore operate as a minority government or enter into a formal alliance with another party.
Unlike Mr Blair, Mr Brown was confident from the introduction and determined to get his message over, simply and clearly by constant repetition insisting that the Inquiry saw the Iraq War in the broad perspective of the changed international situation following the end of the cold war with Russia and China, the emergency of rogue and failed states with the resources to acquire weapons of mass destruction and the development of international terrorism and the suicide bomber. In fairness the Inquiry allowed him explain his position in a way they refused to do with Mr Blair and which in my judgement will mar the independence of their final report. It has been evident that they have been too influenced in the wrong direction my media criticism partly politically fuelled by Murdoch interests in particular, having switched support from Labour to the Tories. His papers in particular along with others have by implication been talking Britain down, have shown themselves not to be true patriots. I say partly because I accept that the media, has responded to the fact that a majority of the population were opposed to any military involvement and that this opposition was fuelled following the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, the failure to understand the political and social situation in Iraq and to plan effectively for winning the peace in whatever situation was found after the military battles were won and the regime was ended.
The media has also reflected and in some instances exploited the grief and party politics of some relatives and in this respect Mr Brown did not make the same mistake of Mr Blair and at the beginning and at the end of his appearance he communicated his understanding of the nature of warfare, especially the impact upon British relatives and friends of those killed and severely injured as well as on civilians in the country of operation. It was subsequently with pleasure that I learnt that the Hurt Locker had been awarded the best film Oscar in the early hours of Monday morning and that the Director and Screen play writers had also won Oscars plus for Best Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, six in total. I also intend to lend my support to the campaign to make retrospective back to the start of the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns and then to those killed or severely injured in Northern Ireland.
Only after listening to the Prime Minister did I catch up with Any Questions, TV and Radio, Friday’s Daily Politics, Thursday’s Late Night Politics show and the Andrew Marr Show. Clare Short in her evidence gave the impression that Brown had complained to her of being left out of the political loop in the run up to the decision taking and the timing of decision taking to join the USA in a full scale invasion. What quickly became clear is that Mr Brown disagreed with any implication that he shared in her and the reservations of others about British involvement in the War or that he was deprived of essential information upon which to form a view within the Cabinet and parliamentary decision taking.
He listed the occasions that he ahd received private briefings from the then Prime Ministers, other government Ministers and the intelligence services.. It also has to be remembered, that because of difference about who should be Prime Minister and Part Leader Gordon controlled domestic politics through the Treasury and the PM foreign affairs, especially over Ireland, the Middle East and USA relations, but with both having a role in relation to Europe E E C issues. It suited Gordon not to be over involved with International politics, especially Ireland and the Middle east where things could go badly wrong.
However on the main issue, the decision to go to war he was clear. He was fully in favour although for very different reasons from those which Mr Blair was allowed to state. His message is that the British electorate and other nations ahd still to grow up to the reality of how the world had become since the ending of the cold war and the establishment of a broad stability in the relations between Britain, France, Germany, the USA and Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada and India and Russia and China. On should perhaps add Italy and Spain on Europe. His argument is that these countries can no longer standby from failed states where entire populations are at risk from hunger or disease and the consequences of civil wars, especially if such actions threaten the position of other countries, and a region in particularly or directly threaten the balance of commercial and political relationships in general. In addition there was problem of terrorist and anti democratic groups within states with the capacity to link worldwide and causing significant deaths among civilians as well as military and police services. He went on to point out the past failure of international organisations, particularly the UN to intervene effectively as remonstrated by the failure of the Iraq family led regime to implement the dozen resolutions demanding compliance.
Mr Brown nevertheless emphasised the importance of the diplomatic initiatives and of Blair’s, the Cabinet and Government commitment to finding a diplomatic solution and the importance of the French veto about a second resolution on forcing the USA and the UK into action because of how any further delay before intervention would have been interpreted by Iraq and others. He also emphasised the importance of the determination of the Attorney General’s advice in Cabinet on the legality of intervention and the protection of Ministers and the military from any subsequent legal challenges, followed by the endorsement in Parliament. The approach taken by the Prime Minister was courageous because it will be used by those who want to attack him for supporting the war although it severely undermined those who hoped he would distance himself from the decision and cast the blame on Blair
It must have been politically tempting for him to try and distance himself from the decision to go into the war given the opposition at the time and which has built up since because of the failure to find evidence of the continuing possession of weapons of mass destruction, the subsequent problems arising from the failure to establish an effective plan for the immediate reconstruction of the country according to the situation found on the ground, and the understandable reaction to the loss of the young lives in Iraq and in Afghanistan. To my mind Mr Brown showed an honesty and integrity head and shoulders above all the other politicians, apart from Mr Blair who have appeared at the Inquiry.
The other issue wish the Opposition political parties, war critics and some relatives of those killed in the war have levelled against Mr Brown is that he failed to provide the military with the funds in time to they were adequately equipped with body armour, appropriately protected armoured vehicles against road way and road side explosives, and helicopters to enable movement of ground troops and to attack enemy positions. Mr Brown was also clear and unequivocal. From the outset he had told the Prime Minister that no military option should be ruled out because of cost and that he had not turned down any request for additional funds, either by using the designated emergency war fund, using funds from the agreed annual budget, or seek major changes to that budget. However he was also honest that the Treasury did not always agree on the total amount requested.
Several former military leaders were quick to disagree with the precise form of words. What the public were not told is that some have already aligned themselves to Tory party or already supported the Tory have understandably become anxious they are may not achieve their paid governmental or advisory role if the Tories do not form the next government. Some are defending their own position for not having ensured that existing funds were allocated to need that is the right equipment found its way to the right people at the right time. In this respect I believe there is valid criticism that the campaign commenced too quickly from the British viewpoint and the victory came too quickly so they were faced with three challenges. First the equipment did not get to right people at the right time. Secondly the situation on the ground was very different to that understood to be the situation beforehand and thirdly the U S A did not appreciate what was involved in regime change reconstruction.
What was also impressive is the way Mr Brown did not hesitate from accepting the way the decision to embark upon the war had been taken and the political and administrative process in planning and conducting the campaign had to be adjusted within the UK and internationally according to the changing circumstances of the War. Over the weekend I visited Clumber Park in Nottinghamshire, the 3000 acre estate now owned by the National Trust but which in war time had been taken over my the War Department as the largest ammunition store and as the test area for a trench digger. Although the monster digger came to work it was never put into production because the nature of warfare changed from that which had existed throughout the First World War and then in the second. Much of the investment in military technology is wasted because it is out of date before it is used and the military are not as good at monitoring and controlling expenditure adjusting priorities to changing circumstances as they would like us to believe. There was a high party political content in much of the analysis which followed which I believe will rebound strongly on David Cameron who has an had increasingly bad couple of weeks.
It has been difficult to assess the impact of his appearance at Chilcott upon the forthcoming General Electorate but I would suggest neutral to positive, hence more attention was given in the subsequently political programmes to the positions of Lord Ashcroft, William Hague and David Cameron with the latter appearing to either liars or fools. This is strong language for me
The response of Carol Vorderman and Boris Johnson on Question Time sums up Tory embarrassment and disquiet at the revelations. There was a similar reaction from Ken Clark. Carole Vorderman appeared hysterically aggressive attacking the approach of personality assassination with a plea for an election on policies which confirmed my impression of her as great with words and numbers but politically naive. Obviously briefed by the Tory central office she tried to side step the main issue by concentration on the position of Non Doms, those who only pay a minority, if any taxes, to the UK Government. It is evident that in democracy such individuals should play no part in the political process and would also query their ability to vote or have control of media sources.
It is only since my return that I saw the reaction of Michael Portillo and he was in no doubt that the Party has been severely damaged and needed to find a way to stop the Haemorrhaging. On a different track David Mellor was equally specific on telling Cameron that he had to get a better act together as hew as failing to send a clear message of Tory difference from Labour which was likely to result in the electorate settling for the devil one knows. The Tory approach has been attack as the best form of defence. On this issue the approach could prove fatal. Ashcroft’s betrayal
Will haunt the General Election and could cost seats in the very marginal’s he has attempted to buy with his politically tainted money. During the expenses scandal Mr Cameron was quick to turn some of his colleagues into political outcasts because it suited his overall interests. His failure to act against Mr Ashcroft and to make a pathetic plea that he had only learnt the truth during the last weeks could prove his electoral downfall and if he fails to win the election or form a government even a minority government, it is he who will be the outcast along with George Osborn. The Party will swing back tot he right and out of office for further a decade. This is the enormity of the challenge which Ashcroft now poses. He has to leave the House of Lords on a voluntary basis. Keeping his title and his money and behind the scenes influence on the candidates and policies of the Party
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