12.45 May 3rd 2008, the start of the first day when Boris Johnson has become the second new style Mayor of London, the second post important political figure in England and Wales to Prime Minister Gordon Brown, some say, but usually those who live in London. If over the next four years Mayor Johnson does not make the kind of gaff which the media loves but then condemns him for, I predict that the victory will be remembered for the day which ended 11 to 12 years of continuous Labour Government. The only way Gordon Brown can avoid a Labour meltdown and remain as Prime Minister and win another four-five year term General Election is if there is a significant change in how people feel about their financial situation in terms of rising prices especially of food and petrol, about the ability to buy a home and then pay for their home, and to feel greater security about the work and incomes. He also has to convince those who are the soul of his party that he is committed to a better distribution of wealth than has been achieved so far and to the retention of the fundamental civil liberties which previously led the UK to being a beacon for freedom in the past, and has effectively brought the world to make London an international city as well as a capital of finance.
I regret to have say that in my judgement if there is someone at Westminster who could immediately command the support of the Labour movement inside of Westminster and in the country as a whole then Gordon Brown should step down. I believe there is such an individual although he would first have to be found a winnable London Parliamentary seat, that is Ken Livingstone. However it is questionable if could command the sufficient support in the country in general.
08.00 It was midday on Thursday when I commenced to write what became three pages of text before losing it overnight as I stayed until after 2 am listening and watching the local election results. The is no inclination to try and remember and rewrite as if contemporaneously but I will present my thoughts and feelings. It would have easier if I had avoided criticism of Prime Minister Gordon Brown before until he was either quickly dropped by the Party, he and the party was defeated at a General Election, or he gets the message and stands down voluntarily realising that he is an even greater political liability that Tony Blair became, but despite the latter he still managed to steer the Party in a third term Government. Had the Labour Party truly wanted a 4th term of government Mr Blair should have been persuaded to stay as Prime Minister and fight the next General Election. Those who forced him to leave early did the country no favours.
Here are the cold inescapable facts. At the worst of post Iraq popularity Labour slumped to 26% of the projected national vote, the worst in recent times whereas the project vote after the results declared overnight is Labour 24% being pushed to third position by the Liberal Democrats who are projected on 25% and with the Conservatives up to 44% showing their steady rise from their dark days of 1997. It is fact that a difference of some 10% to 15% between a local election can be transformed into General Election win but last night the difference was 20% and next year a similar disaster would result in Labour having half the projected vote of the Conservative Party.
Government Ministers and the Chairman of the backbench Labour members of the Commons attempted a brave face on the indefensible saying it was what could be expected of a mid term government to which commentators gave short shrift reminding that they had got rid of Tony Blair prematurely in order to re-brand the party with Gordon Brown and distance themselves from Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and all that. The latest attempt to save the situation was to advise Gordon to be himself as a conviction politician when the only evidence we have is that his only conviction was to become Prime Minister. No one would have minded that if he was seen to be doing a good job. No one believes that David Cameron is a conviction politician in the sense that he will go down fighting rather than compromise on his convictions. What Labour meant to say is that Gordon is a caring man but this is not the same as having some good convictions. Hitler was both a caring man and with convictions as was Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill. The issue is what people care about and do not, what convictions they have and do not and how effective they are when holding office. If you have strong convictions about anything then you will also be judged on how after you are also able to govern according to those convictions, plans and policies. It is much easier if you are not a conviction politician as the term has come to be understood. It will not be until this evening that the London result is declared although the counting began a few minutes ago.
08.40 Politics was not the main subject of Thursday. I had wrestled between continuing the work commenced in relation to the premature and preventable death of my aunt who was my care mother and completing the letter trying to find missing medical information in relation to my birth mother. I had made good progress on the latter when I received a telephone call to say that the copies of the available medical records of my birth mother were ready for collection and I changed and organised myself for going to the post box, to the supermarket, and for voting. This was nearly a disaster as I managed to post my Polling card along with the Cold Feet DVD's and the from for a master copy of the all 21 DVD's 23 Classic British War films. I had already spilt a glass of wine over the Cold Feet covers which required a letter of apology, although fortunately the DVD's themselves were unmarked and in good working order. Fortunately I had also the confirmation of registration document and this was sufficient although I suspected this was not enough to save the existing Councillor seeking re-election.
The results are now on the Council website and my local Councillor lost his seat by some 400 votes with a 43% turn out but Labour at 32.4% well above the project national average. This was not the best turn out in a situation in which the alliance of independent candidates gained a total of four seats reducing the overall Labour majority to four. The independents including most but not all of the long standing Progressive Party including some Independent Labour candidates but not the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats and Greens or the British National Party which did much better than it has done before including an amazing second place in one safe Labour seat where the Alliance did not field a candidate. There were local factors which governed the local results and which led to the loss of sat by the present Council Leader. It can therefore be argued that the result is a protest and does not mean the authority will go the way of Newcastle which has a Lib Dem majority and now North Tyneside as the first victory in a metropolitan local authority in the North East since their creation. In Sunderland the Conservatives have increased their representation from 4 seats to 21 during the last ten years. The problem is that the disaffection with the government, the belief that the government can change the situation around and that the Conservative party under David Cameron could make as good a job, if not better, has been a nation wide reaction. I came to this area just after four years of non labour rule in the local authority ended. I discovered at first hand what they means. The ominous aspect is that the candidate who won in my ward is saying the same kind of thing which governed those depressing four years of parochial politics and next year those attitudes could be back in power and the Governing party may be powerless to prevent that happening. If the present Member of Parliament for South Shields become Prime Minister that could change the situation.
I had written about Scotland, Zimbabwe the Presidential election in the USA, American Idol and several other matters before losing the work. Yesterday has been taken with going through the 140 odd pages of copies of entries and communications in my birth mother's medical records and from the work achieved so far I am able to make two significant conclusions. The first is coincidence that both her records and mine only include information just before she moved from one long standing GP who I believed returned to another. Could it be that because he knew her and her background that information vital to me was destroyed rather than centralised for safe keeping? It makes obtaining the records of the aunt who was my care mother and the other aunt who lived with us until I left home the next priority. I am now a day behind again in my general writing. So I will try and make a few more notes before going to bed.
I regret to have say that in my judgement if there is someone at Westminster who could immediately command the support of the Labour movement inside of Westminster and in the country as a whole then Gordon Brown should step down. I believe there is such an individual although he would first have to be found a winnable London Parliamentary seat, that is Ken Livingstone. However it is questionable if could command the sufficient support in the country in general.
08.00 It was midday on Thursday when I commenced to write what became three pages of text before losing it overnight as I stayed until after 2 am listening and watching the local election results. The is no inclination to try and remember and rewrite as if contemporaneously but I will present my thoughts and feelings. It would have easier if I had avoided criticism of Prime Minister Gordon Brown before until he was either quickly dropped by the Party, he and the party was defeated at a General Election, or he gets the message and stands down voluntarily realising that he is an even greater political liability that Tony Blair became, but despite the latter he still managed to steer the Party in a third term Government. Had the Labour Party truly wanted a 4th term of government Mr Blair should have been persuaded to stay as Prime Minister and fight the next General Election. Those who forced him to leave early did the country no favours.
Here are the cold inescapable facts. At the worst of post Iraq popularity Labour slumped to 26% of the projected national vote, the worst in recent times whereas the project vote after the results declared overnight is Labour 24% being pushed to third position by the Liberal Democrats who are projected on 25% and with the Conservatives up to 44% showing their steady rise from their dark days of 1997. It is fact that a difference of some 10% to 15% between a local election can be transformed into General Election win but last night the difference was 20% and next year a similar disaster would result in Labour having half the projected vote of the Conservative Party.
Government Ministers and the Chairman of the backbench Labour members of the Commons attempted a brave face on the indefensible saying it was what could be expected of a mid term government to which commentators gave short shrift reminding that they had got rid of Tony Blair prematurely in order to re-brand the party with Gordon Brown and distance themselves from Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and all that. The latest attempt to save the situation was to advise Gordon to be himself as a conviction politician when the only evidence we have is that his only conviction was to become Prime Minister. No one would have minded that if he was seen to be doing a good job. No one believes that David Cameron is a conviction politician in the sense that he will go down fighting rather than compromise on his convictions. What Labour meant to say is that Gordon is a caring man but this is not the same as having some good convictions. Hitler was both a caring man and with convictions as was Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill. The issue is what people care about and do not, what convictions they have and do not and how effective they are when holding office. If you have strong convictions about anything then you will also be judged on how after you are also able to govern according to those convictions, plans and policies. It is much easier if you are not a conviction politician as the term has come to be understood. It will not be until this evening that the London result is declared although the counting began a few minutes ago.
08.40 Politics was not the main subject of Thursday. I had wrestled between continuing the work commenced in relation to the premature and preventable death of my aunt who was my care mother and completing the letter trying to find missing medical information in relation to my birth mother. I had made good progress on the latter when I received a telephone call to say that the copies of the available medical records of my birth mother were ready for collection and I changed and organised myself for going to the post box, to the supermarket, and for voting. This was nearly a disaster as I managed to post my Polling card along with the Cold Feet DVD's and the from for a master copy of the all 21 DVD's 23 Classic British War films. I had already spilt a glass of wine over the Cold Feet covers which required a letter of apology, although fortunately the DVD's themselves were unmarked and in good working order. Fortunately I had also the confirmation of registration document and this was sufficient although I suspected this was not enough to save the existing Councillor seeking re-election.
The results are now on the Council website and my local Councillor lost his seat by some 400 votes with a 43% turn out but Labour at 32.4% well above the project national average. This was not the best turn out in a situation in which the alliance of independent candidates gained a total of four seats reducing the overall Labour majority to four. The independents including most but not all of the long standing Progressive Party including some Independent Labour candidates but not the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats and Greens or the British National Party which did much better than it has done before including an amazing second place in one safe Labour seat where the Alliance did not field a candidate. There were local factors which governed the local results and which led to the loss of sat by the present Council Leader. It can therefore be argued that the result is a protest and does not mean the authority will go the way of Newcastle which has a Lib Dem majority and now North Tyneside as the first victory in a metropolitan local authority in the North East since their creation. In Sunderland the Conservatives have increased their representation from 4 seats to 21 during the last ten years. The problem is that the disaffection with the government, the belief that the government can change the situation around and that the Conservative party under David Cameron could make as good a job, if not better, has been a nation wide reaction. I came to this area just after four years of non labour rule in the local authority ended. I discovered at first hand what they means. The ominous aspect is that the candidate who won in my ward is saying the same kind of thing which governed those depressing four years of parochial politics and next year those attitudes could be back in power and the Governing party may be powerless to prevent that happening. If the present Member of Parliament for South Shields become Prime Minister that could change the situation.
I had written about Scotland, Zimbabwe the Presidential election in the USA, American Idol and several other matters before losing the work. Yesterday has been taken with going through the 140 odd pages of copies of entries and communications in my birth mother's medical records and from the work achieved so far I am able to make two significant conclusions. The first is coincidence that both her records and mine only include information just before she moved from one long standing GP who I believed returned to another. Could it be that because he knew her and her background that information vital to me was destroyed rather than centralised for safe keeping? It makes obtaining the records of the aunt who was my care mother and the other aunt who lived with us until I left home the next priority. I am now a day behind again in my general writing. So I will try and make a few more notes before going to bed.
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