This has been a momentous week in European and British Politics, Before reporting and commenting on the events which took place
I must first declare my personal position on the proposition that there should be a United States of All Europe which should include Russia and all European State not presently part of the European Economic Community. more in favour. When the market was formed I had considerable reservations and indeed when I was at Ruskin College 1961-1963 I was nominated to sit on a special committee of the Oxford University Labour Club on behalf of Ruskin to mount a campaign against membership primarily because it appears to be a rich capitalist cub designed to further business interests at the expense of the was then described as Third World nations. Britain was joining a club to achieve economic domination with other European countries as it had been able to do at the height of the Empire. When General De Gaulle said non that appeared to be that
I subsequently settle for the mixed economy between public and private enterprise but and significant reservation about the approach of Thatcher and then Blair to move the public sector more and more in the public services being provided by privately run agencies especially when it emerged that increasingly these were being run by people previously employed in the public but making substantial profits. I knew of individual who became rich from running residential homes for the elderly at a time when the caring per week fees were paid by the government on the basis of the average charges for each area. Although the owners had to do was to agree between them on the general level of increase year upon year to pay themselves increased profits. There was also another motive behind the privatisation move in that it got politicians off the hook. The could claim to have only been involved in the policies and the procurement and in the several financial and political managements of the services and local authority in general. They were then able to refer individual complaints about poor or negligent service to the privately run or independent providers who in turn looked for scapegoats within their organisation if things went wrong and the complaints proved justified.
While my reservation about the imbalance between rich and poor countries was being furthered through the community the political changes in Europe arising from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the willingness of Britain to welcome the enlargement of the community to former eastern bloc nations appeared to me to herald a way forward to overcome the threat of military conflict emerging in the future within the land of Europe. Anyone who has lived through a world war, albeit as a child or has studied what happened in Europe during both war and the aftermath of the period in between, and then with Berlin blockade and then the crushed risings by the soviet leadership will know that for over sixty years Europe became a dark place for many of its citizens.
As I learnt more about the nature and responsibilities of government and how the wealth created by individuals and their speculations and business enterprise filtered down to others to some extent through the provision of work I became convinced that if out existing level of general incomes and expenditure patterns was to be maintained we had to join economic forces with Europe in stronger ways. Although Britain had responsibilities in relation to Commonwealth countries and need to fully exploit relations with North America.
This became a hardened position during 1985 when I attended a four week residential senior management course at the Henley Management College when it was evident that teh USA was developing economic relations with Canada, Mexico, the central and southern Americas in a way which threatened the economic position of Europe, in the wider context of then forecast emerging strength of the middle east and in Asia although the dramatic change in the position of China and India was not then understood. In one session we were provided with intelligence about the political stability and government attitudes towards international corporations country by middle eastern and African country.
On one hand there was our increasing economic fragility in the direct provision of energy when it was essential to plan for the eventual loss of North Sea gas and the political problems associated with oil. There was also the clearest evidence that new and environmental friendly sources of energy would not play a significant role during there rest of my lifetime unless I lived beyond my three score years and ten. There as no energy plan because Thatcher was opposed to this kind of planning and while the evidence was nuclear power was the solution there were strong reservation because of safety and environmental concerns. It was also evident coal could be provided much cheaper from other countries although there were political issues quite part from the impact on mining communities as the national coal strike was dividing eh nation as it did miners. The communist supporting Arthur Scargill sounded the death knell for the whole industry although at the time there was scope for an British mining industry albeit on a considerably reduced scale. While Labour leaders supported the miners they were afraid that a Scargill victory against Thatcher would see him catapulted into the becoming the front runner for the Labour leadership.
The second project showed me the what was ahead was on the future of the UK the car industry in which it became evident that car manufacturers would only be able to survive only by a succession of alliances between companies with no individual company producing all the engine body work of individual models or doing so in any one country. It was also evident that for corporations to succeed they would need to develop internationally to avoid becoming prisoners to the political and economic position of individual national, and that production companies would need to be able to transfer production units as political and economic conditions I learnt about the way creative intellects could be managed to create the new wealth of companies and sustain existing wealth creating business as well as the problems individual creative’s could bring and how these problems might be resolved. This was my break through in understand myself both as a manger and the problems I had experienced unable to give full expression to my inherent creativity.
Another the project which influenced greatly was the projected development of computer technology in which I learnt something of the basics of programming and more importantly how corporations and their senior managers needed to make use and control the development of computer operations as tools to further their enterprises. After the course I spent six months working on the implications of the knowledge for local government sending a copy to Michael Heseltine then MP for Henley and sometime Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, shortly before he resigned as Minister for Defence, and who had an interest in Housing and Local Government, although he had time to read what I had sent and so impressed that he wrote saying he had arranged for the document to be circulated in Whitehall.
This week Europe took a major step forward towards the concept of a United States. It now has a President who has been appointed for a long term period.-the present Prime Minister of the Belgium’s, unknown outside of his country and the effective choice of the French and German heads of state who wanted a good chairman rather than a figure who would shape the institution quickly into a powerful federation of states with a common interest. Tony Blair had been interested in the position ever since his premature departure as British Prime Minister. It was unlikely he would be appointed despite support from a number of the EEC political heads because of his support for their entry into the expanded community. However he posed a threat to the position of France and Germany and there was opposition from those who objected to the role he had played in the War on Iraq
The second associated development was to appoint a new permanent foreign minister to head a new Ambassadorial service with offices around the world. My local Member of Parliament and present British Foreign Secretary was wildly tipped for the position with the follow up scenario that the Lord Mandelson who with Minister for Justice Jack Straw played an important role in the State Opening of Parliament for its final session before the next General Election, was tipped to resign from the peerage, and be parachuted into this safe Labour seat to enable him to become the Leader of the Party either to fight the General Election or to take over afterwards. David Miliband went on record as indicating he was not interested in the European position and his statements and role taken in relation to Afghanistan suggests he has not given up his ambition to become the next party Leader. In the event the person appointed as Foreign Minister was British but an unknown bureaucratic who has never been elected to any post and is also unknown outsider the circles in which she has operated. The post also acts as deputy President.
The implication of the two appointments is that there will be no swift move forward. However the new President is said to be in favour of greater political unification.
There is at the most five months before the next General Election. The Prime Minister is said to have taken personal control over the legislation that was in included in the Queen’s speech and on the final wording. There was no reference to legislation to enable recommendations of the Kelly report and the new independent body to control MP’s expenses and remuneration or to the reform of the Parliamentary and electoral system other than to progress Reform discussion for the House of Lords.
I was very impressed with the speech of the Liberal Democrat leader who said that the Labour Administration had missed the opportunity to set before Parliament a programme of reform which if agreed could have enabled fundamental improvements to be in place before the next Parliament. The Conservative criticism was also valid on the decision not to make reference to expenses and on the nature of the Speech. The Labour argument for not making any reference to the need for legislation in relation to the Expenses scandal does not have credibility. The argument is that having appointed the independent body it is for that body to request legislation and then for Parliament with the support of the leadership of the main political parties to put the legislation on the statute book in time for implementation at the beginning of the next Parliament. This is a good point in principle and avoids the accusation that the Labour Party was trying to make political capital by announcing changes in an essentially Party Political pre election Queen’s speech. However this is irrelevant because all that should have been said is the Government will introduce any legislation recommended by the independent body.
In fact both main political parties appear not want to be in power when the body recommends an increase in the basic Salary of Members of Parliament. All the political parties know this would not be unacceptable to the General Public after the expenses scandal and during a period when there is likely to be increases in taxes and real cuts in services. and would lead to abstentions or to direct voting for present fringe or extreme political parties and which in turn could lead to not one party having an overall majority to be able to implement its policies without having to deals with other political parties.
This brings me to the assessment of the present political situation in the weekly evening edition of the Politics Programme with Andrew Neal. It is by no means certain that Mr Cameron will be able to obtain the kind of general political swing which will ensure him a majority at the next election. It is unlikely that his party will gain seats in Scotland or in Wales. It is also unlikely that the party will gain significantly in tradition labour strongholds because of traditional loyalties although the threat to labour is from the far right which sections of the traditional working class and underclass will turn to. Some of the more liberal minded labour supporters may show their protest over the Iraq war, continuing involvement in Afghanistan, the failure to tackle environmental change, the extremes in wealth, the decision over the abolition of the ten pence tax rate and the failure to control speculative bankers and payment of excessive bonus payments by going to the Liberal democrats and the Greens. Disenchanted members of the Tory Right are likely to be attracted by UKIP in relation to Europe and immigration. The unknowns are the established and later immigrants who have become UK citizens who previously went for Labour. There is still sufficient time for a major international or national development, particularly a scandal to affect the position of some voters on the day. It was said on the programme that many within the Labour Party in Westminster are expecting defeat and the issue is its scale and if they will be affected.
This is why there is more concern on Labour benchers than conservatives not just about the repayment of monies and the impact of the changes if they remain in Parliament but if the pensions paid to members who are defeated is in anyway controlled before they depart. However much the Government tries to dictate the issues for the Election the media and the public have their own agendas.
I am nearly up to date in my work and ready to embark a major undertaking I have been putting off for five years. I have watched four further episodes of the 4400 Babylon 5 and the X files and what is reported to be a new series of NCIS on the FC channel. I enjoyed the Rock concert for the Children in Need appeal the Celine Dion story. More of this over the weekend
I must first declare my personal position on the proposition that there should be a United States of All Europe which should include Russia and all European State not presently part of the European Economic Community. more in favour. When the market was formed I had considerable reservations and indeed when I was at Ruskin College 1961-1963 I was nominated to sit on a special committee of the Oxford University Labour Club on behalf of Ruskin to mount a campaign against membership primarily because it appears to be a rich capitalist cub designed to further business interests at the expense of the was then described as Third World nations. Britain was joining a club to achieve economic domination with other European countries as it had been able to do at the height of the Empire. When General De Gaulle said non that appeared to be that
I subsequently settle for the mixed economy between public and private enterprise but and significant reservation about the approach of Thatcher and then Blair to move the public sector more and more in the public services being provided by privately run agencies especially when it emerged that increasingly these were being run by people previously employed in the public but making substantial profits. I knew of individual who became rich from running residential homes for the elderly at a time when the caring per week fees were paid by the government on the basis of the average charges for each area. Although the owners had to do was to agree between them on the general level of increase year upon year to pay themselves increased profits. There was also another motive behind the privatisation move in that it got politicians off the hook. The could claim to have only been involved in the policies and the procurement and in the several financial and political managements of the services and local authority in general. They were then able to refer individual complaints about poor or negligent service to the privately run or independent providers who in turn looked for scapegoats within their organisation if things went wrong and the complaints proved justified.
While my reservation about the imbalance between rich and poor countries was being furthered through the community the political changes in Europe arising from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the willingness of Britain to welcome the enlargement of the community to former eastern bloc nations appeared to me to herald a way forward to overcome the threat of military conflict emerging in the future within the land of Europe. Anyone who has lived through a world war, albeit as a child or has studied what happened in Europe during both war and the aftermath of the period in between, and then with Berlin blockade and then the crushed risings by the soviet leadership will know that for over sixty years Europe became a dark place for many of its citizens.
As I learnt more about the nature and responsibilities of government and how the wealth created by individuals and their speculations and business enterprise filtered down to others to some extent through the provision of work I became convinced that if out existing level of general incomes and expenditure patterns was to be maintained we had to join economic forces with Europe in stronger ways. Although Britain had responsibilities in relation to Commonwealth countries and need to fully exploit relations with North America.
This became a hardened position during 1985 when I attended a four week residential senior management course at the Henley Management College when it was evident that teh USA was developing economic relations with Canada, Mexico, the central and southern Americas in a way which threatened the economic position of Europe, in the wider context of then forecast emerging strength of the middle east and in Asia although the dramatic change in the position of China and India was not then understood. In one session we were provided with intelligence about the political stability and government attitudes towards international corporations country by middle eastern and African country.
On one hand there was our increasing economic fragility in the direct provision of energy when it was essential to plan for the eventual loss of North Sea gas and the political problems associated with oil. There was also the clearest evidence that new and environmental friendly sources of energy would not play a significant role during there rest of my lifetime unless I lived beyond my three score years and ten. There as no energy plan because Thatcher was opposed to this kind of planning and while the evidence was nuclear power was the solution there were strong reservation because of safety and environmental concerns. It was also evident coal could be provided much cheaper from other countries although there were political issues quite part from the impact on mining communities as the national coal strike was dividing eh nation as it did miners. The communist supporting Arthur Scargill sounded the death knell for the whole industry although at the time there was scope for an British mining industry albeit on a considerably reduced scale. While Labour leaders supported the miners they were afraid that a Scargill victory against Thatcher would see him catapulted into the becoming the front runner for the Labour leadership.
The second project showed me the what was ahead was on the future of the UK the car industry in which it became evident that car manufacturers would only be able to survive only by a succession of alliances between companies with no individual company producing all the engine body work of individual models or doing so in any one country. It was also evident that for corporations to succeed they would need to develop internationally to avoid becoming prisoners to the political and economic position of individual national, and that production companies would need to be able to transfer production units as political and economic conditions I learnt about the way creative intellects could be managed to create the new wealth of companies and sustain existing wealth creating business as well as the problems individual creative’s could bring and how these problems might be resolved. This was my break through in understand myself both as a manger and the problems I had experienced unable to give full expression to my inherent creativity.
Another the project which influenced greatly was the projected development of computer technology in which I learnt something of the basics of programming and more importantly how corporations and their senior managers needed to make use and control the development of computer operations as tools to further their enterprises. After the course I spent six months working on the implications of the knowledge for local government sending a copy to Michael Heseltine then MP for Henley and sometime Deputy Leader of the Conservative Party, shortly before he resigned as Minister for Defence, and who had an interest in Housing and Local Government, although he had time to read what I had sent and so impressed that he wrote saying he had arranged for the document to be circulated in Whitehall.
This week Europe took a major step forward towards the concept of a United States. It now has a President who has been appointed for a long term period.-the present Prime Minister of the Belgium’s, unknown outside of his country and the effective choice of the French and German heads of state who wanted a good chairman rather than a figure who would shape the institution quickly into a powerful federation of states with a common interest. Tony Blair had been interested in the position ever since his premature departure as British Prime Minister. It was unlikely he would be appointed despite support from a number of the EEC political heads because of his support for their entry into the expanded community. However he posed a threat to the position of France and Germany and there was opposition from those who objected to the role he had played in the War on Iraq
The second associated development was to appoint a new permanent foreign minister to head a new Ambassadorial service with offices around the world. My local Member of Parliament and present British Foreign Secretary was wildly tipped for the position with the follow up scenario that the Lord Mandelson who with Minister for Justice Jack Straw played an important role in the State Opening of Parliament for its final session before the next General Election, was tipped to resign from the peerage, and be parachuted into this safe Labour seat to enable him to become the Leader of the Party either to fight the General Election or to take over afterwards. David Miliband went on record as indicating he was not interested in the European position and his statements and role taken in relation to Afghanistan suggests he has not given up his ambition to become the next party Leader. In the event the person appointed as Foreign Minister was British but an unknown bureaucratic who has never been elected to any post and is also unknown outsider the circles in which she has operated. The post also acts as deputy President.
The implication of the two appointments is that there will be no swift move forward. However the new President is said to be in favour of greater political unification.
There is at the most five months before the next General Election. The Prime Minister is said to have taken personal control over the legislation that was in included in the Queen’s speech and on the final wording. There was no reference to legislation to enable recommendations of the Kelly report and the new independent body to control MP’s expenses and remuneration or to the reform of the Parliamentary and electoral system other than to progress Reform discussion for the House of Lords.
I was very impressed with the speech of the Liberal Democrat leader who said that the Labour Administration had missed the opportunity to set before Parliament a programme of reform which if agreed could have enabled fundamental improvements to be in place before the next Parliament. The Conservative criticism was also valid on the decision not to make reference to expenses and on the nature of the Speech. The Labour argument for not making any reference to the need for legislation in relation to the Expenses scandal does not have credibility. The argument is that having appointed the independent body it is for that body to request legislation and then for Parliament with the support of the leadership of the main political parties to put the legislation on the statute book in time for implementation at the beginning of the next Parliament. This is a good point in principle and avoids the accusation that the Labour Party was trying to make political capital by announcing changes in an essentially Party Political pre election Queen’s speech. However this is irrelevant because all that should have been said is the Government will introduce any legislation recommended by the independent body.
In fact both main political parties appear not want to be in power when the body recommends an increase in the basic Salary of Members of Parliament. All the political parties know this would not be unacceptable to the General Public after the expenses scandal and during a period when there is likely to be increases in taxes and real cuts in services. and would lead to abstentions or to direct voting for present fringe or extreme political parties and which in turn could lead to not one party having an overall majority to be able to implement its policies without having to deals with other political parties.
This brings me to the assessment of the present political situation in the weekly evening edition of the Politics Programme with Andrew Neal. It is by no means certain that Mr Cameron will be able to obtain the kind of general political swing which will ensure him a majority at the next election. It is unlikely that his party will gain seats in Scotland or in Wales. It is also unlikely that the party will gain significantly in tradition labour strongholds because of traditional loyalties although the threat to labour is from the far right which sections of the traditional working class and underclass will turn to. Some of the more liberal minded labour supporters may show their protest over the Iraq war, continuing involvement in Afghanistan, the failure to tackle environmental change, the extremes in wealth, the decision over the abolition of the ten pence tax rate and the failure to control speculative bankers and payment of excessive bonus payments by going to the Liberal democrats and the Greens. Disenchanted members of the Tory Right are likely to be attracted by UKIP in relation to Europe and immigration. The unknowns are the established and later immigrants who have become UK citizens who previously went for Labour. There is still sufficient time for a major international or national development, particularly a scandal to affect the position of some voters on the day. It was said on the programme that many within the Labour Party in Westminster are expecting defeat and the issue is its scale and if they will be affected.
This is why there is more concern on Labour benchers than conservatives not just about the repayment of monies and the impact of the changes if they remain in Parliament but if the pensions paid to members who are defeated is in anyway controlled before they depart. However much the Government tries to dictate the issues for the Election the media and the public have their own agendas.
I am nearly up to date in my work and ready to embark a major undertaking I have been putting off for five years. I have watched four further episodes of the 4400 Babylon 5 and the X files and what is reported to be a new series of NCIS on the FC channel. I enjoyed the Rock concert for the Children in Need appeal the Celine Dion story. More of this over the weekend
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