Brexit, an informed forecast of what will happen next

    

As BBC and Sky news channels debate this morning what will happen next, the Robert Peston, ITV programme of 4^th September 2019 contained interviews with Boris Johnson, John McDonnell and Ian Blackford and important commentaries on what they said by Dominic Grieve and Jess Phillips after the House of Commons refused to accept the General Election date of October 15th and passed the Bill seeking a further extension to avoid No deal.

A number of statements were made in the programme which coupled with what was said and observed during Prime Minister’s Question Time, what transpired to be the autumn election spending statement, consideration of the Stop No deal Bill and General Election Debate 12 a.m. to 10 p.m, which I believe makes clear the latest position and what will happen between now and Monday or even later, if the government holds off Prorogation 

All future measures presented Parliament by the Johnson government will be opposed and defeated, including the proposed Queens Speech, with the exception of an amendable legislative measure to abolish the Fixed Parliament Act which the government is likely to introduce if it is known the Commons will agree that the date of the General Election can be fixed without alteration after the October 17^th meeting of the EEC ministers and who in turn will have agreed an extension to enable this to happen, and in which instances the opposition parties (with the exception of the DUP) will campaign for any agreement, revocation, new agreement, and possibly no deal to be put to the people in a second referendum.

It is evident that all the Party leaders (and this may include the D.U.P) together with an increasing number of Conservatives in addition to the those effectively expelled, have concluded, or reinforced their view, that Mr Johnson is unfit to be Prime Minister and have agreed to do what is required to be rid of him. Part of the agreed plan is to also expose the role and behaviour of Dominic Cummings who has now been named by the opposition and several lading conservatives as the agent of Johnson’s plan.

This was brought out clearly with media interviews and speeches made in the Commons by the majority of those expelled with a number of powerful and emotional contributions by those have decided not to stand in the general election and those who will stand as independent conservatives, independents or for other parties. 

Last night Ken Clark in the General Election debate called Boris dishonest, saying one thing and doing another and all the other leaders said he was untrustworthy. The Speaker allowed one backbencher to remind the House that Johnson had been twice shown to be a liar and Jeremy Corbyn said in effect he was two faced, unscrupulous and lacking integrity. Jeremy has not once attacked back during he years of verbal assaults on his record and intentions, I thought something had fundamentally changed when Tony Blair advised Corbyn and the other Opposition parties not to agree the General Election and opened the door to campaigning for Labour in the General Election

 The Speaker told him Johnson abruptly and then politely to sit down, and also to use acceptable Parliamentary language and behaviour, and when Ken Clark drew attention that the Chancellor of the Exchequer was out of order when commencing his Party political election spending statement, the Speaker said he had accepted  the statement would take longer (45 mins) but told the Chancellor twice to stick to the terms of reference of the statement.

Secondly, the Opposition Parties and leading Tories not in the Government, understand that if Johnson is not stopped now, this will only be the start of his approach to stay in power insisting on complete obedience of all the members of his government, backbenchers and advisers and like Trump getting rid of anyone who opposes or appears disloyal.

Thirdly, he is already turning the Tory Party, not just into the Brexit Party to defeat Farage, but an ideological free market, low tax, and low welfare party despite the appearance of ending austerity in order to win his first General Election. It appears, unconfirmed, that the Chancellor’s proposed speech was rejected and one re written for him hence the marching out of No 10 but an armed policer man of one of the Chancellor’s official advisers.

All the Opposition political Parties with the exception of the DUP although there may informal communication between anti Boris Tories and individual member of the D.U.P have agreed that the only way to politically get rid of Boris is to defeat him a general election once the No deal legislation becomes law with the Royal assent. They have agreed that the general election should not take place until after the October 17^th Meeting of E.E.C leaders who they are confident will agree to extend article 50 to avoid a no deal Brexit. They accept this will involve the government seeking legislation to set aside the Fixed Term Parliament Act, but in a way which will be amendable so that the date can be determined by the House of Commons following agreement between all the Party Leaders. They appear confident the EEC will agree to the extension and which may be extended further to cover for the proposed second referendum.

I am confident that all the Opposition parties have agreed that they will campaign in the general election to hold a second referendum with a commitment to implement whatever is decided and this includes the Tory “rebels”. 

The next bit is speculation on my part but there may even be agreement between the Parties for election pacts because of the likely Remain vote split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It has been agreed that if the Labour Party is the biggest party in a situation where they do not have an overall majority (possible even if they do have a majority, they will accept a request to hold a second Scottish Referendum although the Party will campaign for the Union.

It was also evident that Jo Swinson has been on a Leader’s training course and was impressive at PMQ’s and the General Election debate.

Several of the Tory rebels made it clear they oppose and want to stop a Jeremy Corbyn and  McDonnell government, but the SNP and Lib Dems had stopped attacking Jeremy Corbyn, and Jo Swinson has clarified than in saying Ken Clark and Harriet Harman should lead an interim government this was said on the basis the Jeremy would not as things stood be able to form a minority government but this many have changed after Tony Blair endorsed the changed position and all the Labour rebels except John Mann and Kate Hoey voted for the stop no deal Bill.      

Avoid a state of emergency reaction to suspension of Parlianment over No Deal Brexit

On Tuesday August 29^th, 2019 Jeremy Corbyn leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons and of the Labour Party, together with the Opposition Leader in the House of Commons, Valery Vaz, Labour negotiators on Brexit John McDonnell and Sir Keir Starmer met with the leaders of  the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the Independent Group for change, having previously consulted Conservative Parliamentarians and by the end of the two hour meeting agreed a two stage approach to prevent a no deal Brexit on October 30^th. 

The first agreed approach to prevent exiting the EEC without a deal is through  the second use of Standing Order 24 on Tuesday September 3^rd about 4pm after the scheduled Foreign and Commonwealth Office Questions, the introduction of a ten minute rule Bill and a plethora of Points of Order questions by backbenchers sympathetic to the government to introduced a Bill to force the Prime Minister to formally ask for another extension to Article 50 if No deal is the only other option. 

The Bill similar in wording to that previously presented by Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin and is expected to gain a greater margin of approval in the House of Commons because of the number of supporting members of the Tory Party. The potential obstacle is the House of Lords which previously prolonged consideration through filibustering and where the expectation is that the attempt will made to prevent the bill passing in both Houses as required before the planned three week break for the Liberal Democrat, Labour and Conservative Annual Party Conferences. There were reserve plans to continue the session through the Conference season or limit the conference absences to three or four days each week

The planned response of the Government yesterday is designed to make this difficult and create longer term and a potential election winning advantage. This led to immediate opposition on the streets, with more promised, cries of foul and two legal challenges.

The tactic is to reduce the time for the Parliamentary time for the legislation but not prorogue Parliament until Nov 1^st which would have forced ministerial resignations and made no deal definite. 

The Government plan is to thwart any attempt to take No deal off the negotiating table and force the ECC to compromise with a deal which pass Parliament on the basis that there are only 100 Tories who want no deal even if the back stop is removed and 100 hard core labour who want revocation and will not accept a comprise. There is therefore a majority likely to be in favour of a compromise, possibly Mrs May’s deal if the alternative is no deal, End the means that if necessary Mrs May’s deal can be reconsidered and also paves the way for electing a new Speaker or threatening to do so before a General Election.

The other problem is Mrs May agreed to act on the new law, Boris may find a legal way not to.  The ECC will also have to agree an extension which Macron in particular said he would not support. The EEC is only likely to agree a limited extension to get the implementation legislation through Parliament which may require losing/ replacing about 100 of the existing members of the Commons.

A general election was on the cards if there is no deal or a deal, given the latest Polls. The Brexit party has offered the Tory Party a deal not to stand against them in agreed seat if they deselect about 40 to 50 exist anti Brexit MP’s presumably given them the seats and a confidence and supply agreement if necessary.

The Opposition approach has been to put off the no confidence vote because Tory members won’t bring down the government unless it is the only last resort, and other opposition parties and many Labour back benchers know that Corbyn would gain election advantage if he becomes temporary Prime Minister and stops No Deal. He has not ruled out the idea of an all Party temporary coalition led by Clark and Harriet Harman in their capacities of the recognised Father and Mother of the House of Commons, who have both held Ministerial offices and command respect in respective Parties.

Boris knows that he could win a General Election based on a Government on behalf of the people versus the Commons. Corbyn’s team know they have to also deselect at least 50 existing members if they are to command loyalty when in Government.

Boris also knows that serious disorder on the streets will be sufficient to declare a state of emergency and this may already have been agreed with the Head of State.  Trump may have offered to use US resources including off the books resources to monitor ant Brexit Parliamentarians and others individuals of influence. Any state of emergency will enable the government to control the media, including social media.

Deputy Leader of Labour Party seeks MI5 help to expel hard left members of the PLP from the Party

The Deputy Leader was Gordon Brown  who supported the  decision of Party Leader and Leader of the Official Opposition  Hugh Gaitskell in 1961. At their instigation Patrick Walker provided MI5 with a handwritten list of 16 names on House of Commons notepaper.

I was reminded of their action when writing about the reasons why special branch and MI5 kept not only me but those who visited my home in Wallington 1959 and 1962 in the context of writing about the significance of the Challenor Police Scandal, the Portland, Vassal and Profumo spy scandals in relation to the unsolved murder of my friend Ann Haldane in 1963 who had worked at the Admiralty for five years since leaving the Hackbridge Secondary Modern School aged sixteen years. The unsolved murder should be regarded as one of the worst failures to arrest and  successful prosecute a killer in British policing history. Twenty people were close by, when the killer struck,  providing detailed descriptions and some seventy people were estimated to be surrounding her body when two street patrolling constables arrived at the murder scene minutes later. 

Possible reason why the murder has remained unsolved forms the first four sections of Coincidence, Connections and Contradictions.

One of those who visited the home of the three aunties with whom I lived at Maldon Court in Bute Road was the daughter of the Member of Parliament for Morpeth, 1954-1970,  Will Owen who was acquitted of selling low level information to a Soviet State. Christopher Andrew in the authorised history of MI5 discloses the information on page 413 of the 1000 page history. Her states "Though Owen was acquitted, he was almost certainly, guilty as charged."  Andrew explains that it was not until Josef Frolik was questioned by the United States intelligence service in 1969 during the Wilson Government, that information was provided that John Stonehouse and Will Owen had both been recruited by Czech  intelligence Pages 541-543.

Will stayed on at his London home in 1970 and became  leader of the Labour members on the London Borough of Sutton  when as Vice President of the Association of Child Care Officers, I had chaired a committee which recommended the blacklisting of the Borough because it had amalgamated its Children Department services under the control of the Health Committee and Medical Officers Health in an attempt to stop the removal of local democratic control of health services, something which I shared,  but not at the expense of diminishing the professional social work standards being reached in the provision of statutory Child Care.

Future Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan and a future leader of the Social Democrats Roy Jenkins had advised  of the need to take action if the  Wilson government was to be able to get through Parliament Social Services Legislation as had already happened in Scotland with the Social Work Scotland act. I had been introduced to the two Labour Home Secretaries when arranging a drinks party at Parliament to celebrate the passage of 1969 Children's and Young Persons Act  when it was evident they had been briefed about my  background working for the Direct Action Committee Against Nuclear War, helping to organise the  Whitsun 1961 civil disobedience demonstrations at Holy Loch, and a member of the Committee 100. It is not known if they were aware of my meeting at Scotland Yard with George Clark before the Aldermaston march where we were introduced to representatives from the Home Office and Admiralty, but not others who I assumed at the time were from the US Embassy/CIA.   In accordance with the principles of Satyagraha I had been open about our plans and intentions as I was subsequently with senior polices and local authority officials on both sides of the Clyde, agreeing to making a formal statement which merit a letter of warning from the Commander of the Flagship, Scotland. The response of the authorities was remarkably varied. Those at Dumbarton on the North bank refused to talk. The Police at Clydebank  asked how many officers we wanted to assist in our march and also said  the traffic would be stopped when I said we would follow the usual rule  keep to one side of the roadway and allowing for breaks in the march to allow traffic to cross  route roads. The politicians at Greenock and Gourock arranged for the Clerk, Treasurer and chief Education officer to meet and offer what help was needed in terms of overnight accommodation, food and safe passage.

I was  subsequently invited to a meeting of the Labour Party group of Sutton Council to talk about social services after I had been appointed Director of Social Services at South Tyneside. Sadly the Party only came close to power and with the rise of the Liberal Democrats there have been no Labour Councillors since 2006.

A coincidence is that in 1969, the Attorney General,. Sir Elwyn Jones, a future Lord Chancellor, authorised a  search warrant and  police interrogation of Will Owen who admitted receiving untaxed money but not to disclosing classified information. I had met  his daughter twice during the communist led youth Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament marches  between Liverpool and Hull Christmas to New Year 1959 1960 and I960 1961. We met again on a hillside  overlooking Holy Loch  on Whit Monday when I was checking to see  that those who remained  camping out overnight were able to return to their homes. I invited her attend a meeting of the Wallington Youth CND which she  did.

There would also have been interest when the group accepted the invitation of two of the sons of  Ritchie Calder, Angus wrote the People's War, to meet at their home in Cheam. Ritchie Calder was President of the National Peace Council and the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.  Ian Dixon, a member of the Director  Action Committee and of the Committee 100, a former  journalist for Peace News, also came to speak at a meeting.

Screen X and New Amserdam

Yesterday, I can never type the word without hearing the opening of the Beatles tune in my head, I had the most wonderful of days which lasted until going to bed well after midnight. Such is my satisfaction at the mixture of achievement and new experience enjoyment that I need to record the experiences before continuing with the writing of a book, the first section of which is fully researched and drafted, and the opening pages settled yesterday.

On return from my first experiences of the new cinema Screen X at the Cineworld Newcastle at the Gate, the best of the four party areas of one of this most remarkable of British cities; the other areas, the Bigg Market, the Tyne riverside, with the Millennium Bridge walkway to the Baltic contemporary art centre and Sage concert halls on the Gateshead side, and Eldon Square  complex of restaurants on two floors and surrounding streets filled visiting hen and stag parties,  packs  of university students setting out for the bars and clubbing,  adolescents celebrating the end of half term,  middle age and older citizens heading the Theatre Royal and the Playhouse, some younger ones to the Live Theatres, couples of all ages on dates, families going to  the film of Aladdin and  the secret life of Pets ,and a mixture of well-dressed heading for the 24 hour casino at Gate.

I returned home by Metro and my car parked at the South Shields end of the line station, eat the prepared salad and a small carton of raspberries, watched the latest episode of the Looming Tower, which chronicles the rivalry, distrust and compartmentalism of the C.I.A and F.B.I in the years  before 9/11, having watched the previous evening the Berlin Station  series in which the U.S funds a right wing party in Germany in order to house and use its digital surveillance system on every government, corporate and domestic electronic device in Europe,  and  Deep State series which chronicles the machinations of the US government through one of its off the books units committing murder and blackmail to beat Russia and China in controlling individual African states, and then decided to watch  the last two the most moving and engaging of Television series of 22 episodes New Amsterdam on Amazon prime, about a New York Public Hospital with a creative  socialist public service Director, four principal medical consultants and the consultant psychologists who could be me in another life,  and the sex, loves, addictions and family dramas of the staff for which they have too little time.

I have never been keen on hospital set dramas, part of my fear, dread and dislike of all institutions which become places which concentrate in furthering and protecting the interests of the providing body, the management and employees before those of the residents. I also cannot stand the reality of the pain and the bloodshed. New Amsterdam changed that, as I became totally involved and in tears a during most, if not all episodes, and saying WoW at the levels of understanding and insight. The end of what appeared to be the final rather than first season episode was more shocking and unexpected than the ending of Blakes Seven. The advantage of Amazon Prime is that you can watch a full series over 24 hours, but New Amsterdam was experienced no more than one day, and where sometimes a longer break between episodes seemed right, but difficult, as you are always wanting to know want happens next. The story line and the characters go well over the top which is also me.

Having experienced 4DX 3D at the rebuilt inside of Cineworld in Newcastle I set off to see if the latest screen film experience to be added was as good or even better. Cineworld had adopted part the 2009 South Korean system which motion seating synchronised with events in the film. You are held in seats in the same as on fairground ride with addition of sensors which can appear to punch or stab you if such an event occurs on screen. The full model now in Newcastle and Middlesbrough in the North East includes carefully directed water spray at the face, wind, hot and cold, smoke and auditorium lights together with surround sound and 3D visual. Not a fan of the roller coaster and other fairground thrill rides, I decided to experience the new dimension with a film about the ability through the use of avatars to immerse yourself in an artificial dimension the outcome of which you cannot control. The television series Westworld goes one further when human beings enter an artificial world full of artificial sentient, feeling created, outwardly human bodied robots, you can kill, torture and sex with until the artificial beings start to question with inside help and learn how to fight back and decided to enter the real world.

The Screen X advance publicity mentioned a 270 degree which I did not think carefully about beforehand assuming it was similar to Cinerama of the 1950’s and which had a deeply curving screen arc and a drawback of two joins which created a triptych effect.  On 20^th September 1954, the first theatre opened in London in Old Crompton Street, Soho with “This is Cinerama” which I went to see on my own and then took the aunties within who I then lived. A decade later I saw “How the West was won” and possibly “Khartoum”. I believe I saw 2001, a Space Odyssey at a different London theatre.

The new screen is advertised as a mind boggling 270 degrees so I was greatly disappointed and nearly went out to complain to the management when first entering the screen 12, having sat overlooking the comings and goings on one of the pairs of new leather sofa to one side of the  large reception area which also serves at the entrance to the four additional small screens on two floors . To reach Screen X you have to pass the Superscreen and sound, the 4DX with 2 and 3D, the 3D and 2D screens, with leather reclining seats and legroom for people to pass while you continue to sit, plus two sets of male, female and disability toilets.

Going through the two sets of door into the theatre I looked up at the screen and thought what the…. and nearly went out to complain to the management.  In fairness I had not worked out the implications of a 270 degree screen compared to that if Cinerama and had expected something similar. Instead, it appeared there was one slight curved screen wall to wall, floor to ceiling screen of perhaps 90 degrees but not as big as the Imax screen at the Theatre by Waterloo.

The long opening programme of Pearl and Dean advertisements, invitations to join the Cineworld unlimited monthly subscription and film trailers filled the centre area of screen until the magic moment when the theatre went momentarily dark and the words screen x appears before the full screen emerged from the darkness, as did the screens on either side of the theatre, tapering all the way to the back corners. To experience the best effect, seats at the back are essential although the effect wherever you sit is overwhelming and distracting.   Several times I could not cope and closed my eyes. I had the same experience at Imax in London.

Not all the scenes in the fil were projected on the three sides which offered some relief. One problem was the film being shown.

I had made the visit to experience the new screen and had reservations about the latest in Godzilla series which were more than justified. The script is laughable, the characters did not engage with acting half hearted, the story incomprehensible, the CGI of some of the monsters third rate and action relentless and boring.

It will go again to see a screen X Screen production when hopefully the film will make the experience worthwhile. There is a premium charge of £3 over the unlimited subscription, £2.50 for the Superscreen, £4.70 for 4DX but the premium for special relays is more as I paid to see the Bruce Springsteen documentary and short concert on his early experience and attempt to revive the West side of the New Jersey coastal resort of Ashbury Park.

The Newcastle Cineworld has been transformed from the former Empire which occupied the same site on the top floor with 12 theatres and a side extension of four small theatres on two floors. The entrance foyer has been transformed include a Starbucks

The Gate has a two level basement garage which I have just discovered has an evening charge of only £ 2.50, £3.50 all day Sunday, the 24 hour Casino for those over 18 and which does not require membership, a two floor night club till 3am two Escape Room experiences, a video lounge and open play which include chess and table tennis with I have never used. Similarly, there is major International Banquet, eat as much you like which I will visit but only when I reduced my present weight of seventeen and half stones to under 16; I have eaten at the Wetherspoons, but not Nando’s, Pizza Hut, eat as much you plus Nando’s, Pizza Hut, Wetherspoons. There two bar, on serves food with huge screens to watch football, and one of these has topless dancers before, during the interval and afterwards to attract and retain customers from the other part and places in Newcastle which also both home and away games. The home games are relayed from other countries. There are in total some 300 places to eat, drink and socialize in the city.

The voice of reason

The overnight message from the local government elections confirms my prediction that the Prime Minister will  yield on the issue of a Customs Union and the Leader of the Opposition will face down members of the Parliamentary Party who want the People’ Vote, and attempt to pass the Withdrawal agreement and a new political declaration  before the EEC elections are held, if the margin is sufficient to get the necessary legislation passed, or immediately after the  EEC elections to ensure that those elected do not take up their seats.

The result of the local government elections would have been different if the Brexit and Change Parties had time to establish a local party structure and select candidates. Fortunately, they were not, and the message to both groups is that as soon as Brexit is sorted, you will have no future as a political force as the electorate will revert to the natural order of politics but with the Lib Dems, the Greens, and genuine local Independents gaining and the likely outcome of no party having overall control in the House of Commons.

However, the ability to get a May Corbyn Brexit deal through the Commons is in question as the no deal Tory Brexiteers in the House of Commons and the anti-Corbyn Remainers of the PLP become more angry and fearful of a deal and are given full support by some at the BBC in particular, and a platform on Sky and ITV news channels.  The National papers will continue to appeal to the No deal and anti-Corbyn interests, so only social media will be available for objective and rational democrats who understand  human behaviour and the nature of political power to communicate and press for peaceful compromise which will enable good order and good people to get on with their lives, protecting and furthering the best interests of themselves, their relatives and friends within a fair and just rule of law.

We need to avoid a Britain with a political leadership pandering to those who welcome the dangerous extremism of Trump, of the theoretical Marxists or   the wishy washy populism of Macron. It remains important for the future of the planet that Britain remains a state with sufficient influence to contribute in meaningful way to world peace,  to tackling climate change and the future of the planet,  tackling disease, food and water deprivation, protecting and furthering the interests of women and girls,  and those with disabilities, defending  against the imposition of religious beliefs,  and against organised crime,  and takes radical action to end structural economic, political and social inequality.

April film Review

The film Red Joan appealed to me because of ongoing work which involves separating coincidences from connections and sifting through the available information to try and find evidence which points to truth. In this instance I decided to see the film without reading reviews or reading on the person said to have inspired the making of the film although the two lives are only loosely connected

The basic  truth is that  the real life subject,  Melita Norwood, was a life-long communist supporter, the daughter of communist supporting parents, who worked  as a civil servant for 40 years in a government nuclear weapon development programme  during which time she provided information of value to Russia who regard her contribution as important as that provided by the more famous Cambridge Spies.  She worked as the personal secretary to the Director of the programme and therefore was able to photograph and pass on the documents and communications with which she had access. She was also married to a communist chemistry teacher who have helped her to understand something of the work involved. 

Melita appears to have retired about the same time Margaret Thatcher launched the most comprehensive and effect vetting service in the world to prevent left wing activists being appointed to any form of public funded position or job. In terms of her background she was bright enough with the personality to be school captain at a secondary school and to commence to study for a degree in Latin and Logic at Southampton University, deciding to leave to commence work in London after a year. She is known to have been part of the Woolwich spy ring where three members were arrested and imprisoned in 1938 but she was not even interviewed.

Nor was she prosecuted when  aged 80 years, and retired, she was identified in 1992  when a KGB archivist for the foreign intelligence service, Vasili Mitrokhin, defected and provided the British MI6 with files which remain classified, although some access has been  given, notably to Christopher Andrew who wrote the two editions of the 1000 page history of MI5, and published two books on the papers The Sword and the Shields 1999 and the Battle for the Third World in 2005.  Melita was one of three British spies whose names and roles were made public. The second was a Member of Parliament for 20 years Raymond Fletcher also a journalist and author whose wife has denied his participation saying he worked for MI6 and directly helped Margaret Thatcher.  Raymond Fletcher served   in the British army in WW2 and afterwards in Germany.

The most colourful of the three was John Symonds who fled Britain after becoming suspected of corruption when a police sergeant at New Scotland Yard. He claimed to have been framed and went to Africa where he used his military background to train government troops using sold off British weapons.  He was then recruited by Russia and used to gain information by seducing women who worked in embassies He returned to Britain and was given immunity for past deeds when cooperating in Operation Countryman. He was not believed about his role as a male Marta Hari until he was named by Mitrokhin. He is still alive and a film starring Daniel Craig and Jude law based on his book was planned but then discontinued.

In the Red Joan Judi Dench plays the 80 year old, a widow with one son who is a leading lawyer  and who spends most of the film horrified by what she discloses of former life to the  Special Branch in  long flashback covering her life story.  This begins when she meets two German Jews at Cambridge University and is groomed after joining a left wing film society and seduced by the male.  Unlike the Norwood, Sophie Cookson portrays the young Joan as a conventional bright academic from a middle class background passionate about the pure science of physics and a mathematical background which leads her to being head hunted to work as personal assistant to the director of the British nuclear weapon project before the war ends. and where her former communist contacts learn of her new role and try and persuade her to spy for them. She strongly opposes this until the bomb is used on Japan.

The story follows what happened in reality as in 1946, the McMahan Act was passed in the USA preventing further sharing of the development programme despite British scientists having played a major role in the Manhattan project. The irony is it was the former German scientist Klaus Fuchs who in 1950 was found to have spent years leaking his contribution to the Russians using the argument made by the film that this achieved a balance of power and prevented a third world war and the destruction of humanity.

The film has Atlee visiting the project and agreeing to what became the successful development of the British Bomb. The problem was that we lacked the means of effective rocket launching to prevent any pre-emptive strike by the enemy. We were blackmailed by the American President in 1960 into agreeing to provide the main base for the Polaris submarines and to do so near Scotland biggest centre of population as the means for the sharing of the rocket delivery system. The government wanted a more isolated location, but the USA insisted on Holy Loch to ensure their service personally had quick access to the facilities of a city. This information became available with the release of Cabinet papers and the treating of the Holy Loch demonstrations which I triggered and helped organise (papers of Direct Action Committee J B Priestly Library University of Bradford) with an online index and mentioned in a footnote Gandhi and the West Sean Scalmar).

In the film, the young Joan begins a relationship with the project director when they go to Canada for help with the British development. However, it is only when the project director is charged and held  in custody for being the source of the leaks to Russia development, that his wife agrees to a divorce and they can in theory be  together again.. Joan decides to admit her role to save him but then works out a plan to enable both of them to leave the UK for Australia by blackmailing a gay former communist student at Cambridge who has become a senior civil servant at the foreign office. It is only when this man dies that the evidence against her comes to light. The film ends with the media at her door as she attempts to explains why she did it supported at the last moment by her son. The ending is intended to leave the audience with sympathy for what she did.

The acting throughout is first class and some critics dislike the direction of Trevor Nunn which avoids this being yet another gripping spy thriller with lots of explicit sex and scandal.  Nunn is more concerned about portraying relationships and motivations in the context of the time period and in this he succeeds. The film is pitched for an intelligent and serious audience and not for the average cinema goers and film critics born in the last thirty years which suggests it will not have a long run in mainstream theatres.

I also recently enjoyed the Missing Link which uses puppets and stop motion but with the latest technology involving 110 sets at 65 locations. The sequence on the ice bridge to Shangri la is reported to have taken five years and has Emma Thomson as the voice of the powerful dictator of the hidden world   There is a great cast of voices including Hugh Jackman, Stephen Fry, David Walliams, Matt Lucas and Timothy Olyphant.   The story is of a dedicated explorer in search of living creatures from Big Foot to the Yeti which will prove to be the missing link between animals and humans and will gain him entry into the Royal Society where he is opposed by its President clinging to Creation in 7 days belief.   The film follows the Around the World in 80 days in this respect and where the Royal Society president hires a team to prevent the return of the explorer with proof.  There is a huge production company involved managed by Laika. I first became aware of this approach to film making when seeing Kubo and the two Strings in 2016 where the voices included Ralph Fiennes.

I also enjoyed the remake of Dumbo which upset me as child when seeing the 1941 original  when Dumbo was brought by a flock of wild storks but otherwise the basics of the story are the same with the mother elephant declared mad and locked away and separated from her son which continues to upset very young children today as it did then,  the impact of being regarded and exploited as a freaks  and  the happy ending, in this instance taken from public entertainment  back to  a natural habitat.

One of my first cousins spent his childhood including early school in Germany immediately after the war as his father was a regimental quartermaster in the British Army of Occupation. His mother was traumatised by the reality of the experience, so I was interested to see one of the few authentic accounts on film with best well known Graham Green’s the Third Man with Joseph Cotton and Orson Wells. The Aftermath more than lived up to my expectations but I am not surprised that that its season of showing was short for as T S Elliot comments in his Four Quartets humans cannot cope with too much reality.

I have no visual memory of the original 1937 movie A Star is Born with Janet Gaynor and Frederich March, but I do remember the 1954 version with James Mason and Judy Garland and then as Rock and Roll artists in 1976, Kris Kristofferson and Barbara Streisand. I was not surprised that the latest Hollywood version in 2018 with Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper won several awards. I went to Wild Rose at Bolden Cineworld  on April 12 because it was a  Scottish film with Julie Walters, not knowing much else, only to discover there were  similarities with the Star is Born series  but at a superior level of authenticity because of the performances of Jessica Buckley as the Country singer, Julie Walters as her mother and the  young actors who play her son and daughter both of whom are outstanding. I rate Wild Rose as one of the best Scottish productions and should feature in next year’s BAFTA awards.  The language is natural and the film rightly has a 15 certificate.

I then went to see Shazam at the Vue Gateshead using a one of the Lloyd Bank vouchers where it was being shown on their super clean screen with the latest special sound and found the entrance foyer in a disgusting condition after enjoying a cup of tea in the neighbouring Tesco. Usually the foyer area, full of leather armchairs and a large screen showing the latest trailers, is spotless but this time there was spilt popcorn everywhere and the remains of various snacks which was cleared up by the time I had my ticket and car park pass. I went for an entertainment experience without expectations and came away impressed that this is best action hero film made for families starting with children from about ten years of age.

The film centres of mixed age range of school age adolescents living in a small children’s home managed by a couple with the knowledge, experience and skill to treat each child as an individual, to give them their space while bringing them into a sense of family life where they begin to look after each other.  The most unhappy child was abandoned by his 17 year old mother at a fair and spend his life trying to find her believing he was lost and not abandoned. He is selected by an ancient solitary wizard to be tested to become his successor after years if failing to find someone suitable. He is given the full range of superpowers which he initially begins to use in order to get out school, attract attention and money for treats and let the situation get out of hand.  Unfortunately, a previous failure finds a way to return to the lair of the Wizard and join up with the imprisoned dark forces there and uses these creature monsters to gain power and revenge until  he is made aware of the potential threat from the adolescent superhero.. 

Thus, the age old battle between good and evils begins where the youngster is no match until one by one the other children realise the situation and try and help. At the end all the children become superheroes each with their own form of power which suggests this is only the first a series.  There was a good size audience for the film which was also enjoyed by them, overhearing the comments as we left the auditorium. Next in 3D with be the sequel to the Avengers Endgame.

The Easter Brexit Agreement ?

I listened carefully to all the answers which the Prime Minister Teresa May gave in the House of Commons on Thursday afternoon April 11^th 2019, as I have done on every previous Brexit reporting occasion and noted the significant differences which augur well in her dedicated effort to respect the binding undertaken given to the British people in the  June 23^rd Brexit 2016 referendum. An undertaking which was also given by the Labour Party and which was also followed by both political parties in their 2017 General Election manifesto’s. As  I commented to a journalist three years ago when attending the presentation by the Shadow Chancellor when he outlined Labour’s investment bank  proposals at the Glass Centre in Sunderland, I anticipated that although our political relationship with Western Europe would change, ways would be found to retain all the elements which had served everyone well over the past forty years.

My confidence and my optimism is because I believe I recognise the fundamental shift in the approach of the Prime Minister as she appears to have decided that she has nothing to lose by persisting in what she believes is right for the for future of the British Nation and damn the personal consequences.

In this respect she has become more like Jeremey Corbyn, the official leader of the Opposition and leader of the Labour Party, that she would ever admit, in public. She still finds it difficult to control her feelings towards those in her own party who are determined to bring her down because she refuses to yield to their view of Britain’s political and economic future. She showed contempt towards Sir William Cash and other member of the far right in her party and is taking on the U.D.P. 

Having leaked the 27 page statement  the Cabinet Secretary  briefed on  why no deal would be bad for the British economy and the public welfare, the memorandum from the head of the Civil Services telling all government departments to stand down No deal preparations was also leaked further incensing the Brexit Right and in so doing challenges Cabinet Members Leadsom, Gove, Mordaunt and the other members of the Pizza Club, to shut up or resign. They know that if they resign, they will be replaced by those who support the approach of the Prime Minister and not by other Brexiteers. Mrs May knows that the rest of the Cabinet will not resign and bring down the government fearing the consequences of a General Election.

The remaining threat to her immediate position as Prime Minister is that the U.D.P are arguing that their binding agreement to support the government in any vote of confidence applies only to the previously agreed length of the present Parliament session which commenced on 21^st June 2017 and is therefore due to end in June. This in part is why Mrs May attempted to extend Article 50 only to June. However, the present session of two years instead of the normal one is because of Brexit and the Right in her party immediately understood that the new flexible Article 50 extension will result in in the extension of Parliamentary session, with the UDP immediately saying the Supply and Confidence agreement will have to be renegotiated. It would be surprising if the Prime Minister has not checked that the agreement continues for the length of the session without the length being determined. The UDP also know that Jeremey Corbyn has no intention of calling for a new vote of confidence in the Government while he is in negotiation for a Brexit confidence agreement which will guarantee his party’s support for passing the Withdrawal agreement and for a revised political agreement on future relationships with Europe. As with the UDP agreement Labour could insist on other strings

It is not evident if the media is deliberately not explaining to the public the potential legally binding nature of any agreement or there is ignorance. It is important to appreciate that as with the agreement reached with the Liberal Democrats which formed the Coalition in 2010 and that with the UPD in 2017,  the discussions with Labour are of a similar order, and are being formally serviced by the Civil Service and its lawyers and will have the same force as any international treaty between two or more countries, and where the Prime Minister has  the power to enter into with the authority of the head of state using the royal prerogative. I assume the head of state formally sanctioned the Good Friday agreement, the Coalition and UDP agreements and would do so any between May and Corbyn.

This  also explains the anger of the SNP and other minority parties in Parliament to May’s decision to try and do a deal with Labour which will in effect replace that with the DUP. In this they are joined by the pure Remainers and anti-Corbyn members of the  Parliamentary Labour Party who appreciate that the 2017 Labour Election Manifesto and the 2018 annual conference resolution only commit the Party to a second referendum, a confirmatory vote , or to seeking a general election if their six tests are not met, and that on behalf of the Labour Party, Corbyn and Keir Starmer and other members of the negotiation team have made public their willingness to compromise, stating that so far the Prime Minister has not ab acceptable compromise on the table.  It is assumed that these talks will continue with added momentum during the next two weeks while the backbench members of the Commons have been sent back to face their constituencies and some of the media spotlight is defused. Obviously, some of the most outspoken have sorted out their position with their constituencies, but there will be others who the Prime Minister and the Tory Whips believe will accept the urgent need to get the Withdrawal agreement passed before May 22^nd and preferable before May 2^nd.  The momentum to get it done at any price now has full steam.

It was also evident from Mrs May’s answers to questions yesterday, that the priority, one which is also shared in part with Corbyn, is that they want to avoid participation in the EEC Elections on 22^nd of May.  There are two reasons for this. The first is that Polls, as they do for the local elections on May 2^nd are looking very bad for the Conservative Party, and also not good for Labour is some of the Leave seats where racism was the main factor in the referendum result. The second is the anticipated rise not just of the two Brexit parties, UKIP and the new party of Nigel Farage but of other far right parties. Much will depend if UKIP and the Brexit Party can do a deal not to both contest some seats or if the anti-Tory and Labour vote is split.  The timing of any formal agreement between Labour and the Government will therefore be crucial.

The media also did not appear to appreciate that the proposal to put options to the House of Commons which the government would be bound by the outcome, was only a back stop if agreement is not reached with the Labour Party, and then only if Corbyn also agrees for Labour to be bound by the outcome. May on behalf of a future Conservative government and Corbyn also, do not want to give more power to the present composition of the House of Commons than Speaker Bercow has allowed so far.

The preference of both leaders is for a general election rather than a People’s Vote as the Prime Minister knows that she could use a General Election not just to confront Corbyn for a second time, but believes that the work undertaken to discredit Corbyn as a security threat and  anti-Semitism has damaged him personally and that unlike  her previous attempt  to make the general election about Brexit, any new snap election will become Brexit dominated by the media, however hard the Opposition leader attempts to focus on the impact of austerity, climate change and the inherent inequalities of  the British economy and power structure.  Corbyn also knows that he needs the opportunity of a General Election to rid the House of Commons of some of his fiercest critics. Now that Commons have been given the taste of power against the executive they will want to exercise again and only a new more traditional Speaker  following a General Election will change that, and I still anticipate that Jacob Reece Mogg is the most likely candidate with Andrea Leadsom the other possibility as there will be  across party pressure for the officer to  again be held by a woman with Baroness Betty Boothroyd the only other woman to be elected.

The difficulty Labour has is in signing any agreement without a commitment to a Peoples Vote, and if this proves to be an obstacle the solution is a vote of no confidence leading to a general election, but as has been stated, the Tory right will not support unless there is a way to replace May and the UDP is legally bound to support.

My cause for optimism is that this all points to May immediately putting formally on the table a form of Customs Union and common  market conformity regularity which Corbyn and his front bench could sign up to with confidence knowing  he would have sufficient support from the shadow government and supporters to get the consequential Brexit legislation through the British Parliament, despite opposition from the hard right and the hard Remainers together with the SNP and Lib Dems who know that any deal will damage their future electoral prospects and that of UKIP and the Brexit Party.

Both leaders know that if a deal is to be done and prove successful it has to be done quickly and the two week recess provides a great opportunity for what future generations will call the Easter agreement