British Pie the day democracy died

Yesterday, the British Prime Minister attended his first meeting with those who head the Select Committees of House of Commons to review government progress on reducing the number of deaths from the SARS 2 2 COVID 19 pandemic while at the same time preventing other deaths caused by the Stay at Home policy and he consequences of lockdown the economy.

It was evident from his response to the question, “ why have you not asked Mr Cummins to resign?” that he has made himself the judge and the jury of the supreme court of public opinion believing that the introduction of new measures of freedom through the re-establishing of Track and Trace will divert media attention and bring to an end the rebellion by backbenchers of the House of Commons, joined yesterday by the Paymaster General, Penny Mordaunt  and the forced out Chancellor of Exchequer Sajid Javid, when he refused to replace his advisers.

The chairperson of the Committee, Sir Bernard Jenkin, was the appropriately polite host who welcomed the Prime Minister to the meeting, chided him for not coming before and hoped he would return again before the summer to be questioned about Brexit plans and the aspects of the government policy and legislation in the Party General Election Manifesto, to wish the response was an equally polite no.

The thought then crossed my mind that Mr Cummings were more Cromwell and the Svengali, and that Mr Johnson has used the Pandemic to side line Parliament and made himself de facto head of state.

In 1944, aged 5, as had millions of other children  in 1939 and 1940, I was evacuated to a place of safety, separately  from my single parent mother, a school teacher, who continued to do her duty like millions of others, despite living in an area where there had been 5000 civilian casualties because of our location close to Croydon, Kenley and Biggin Hill aerodromes and where over 140 V1 and V2 rockets exploded. One of my earliest memories is being carried from the house  to the Anderson shelter at the back, in daylight, first hearing a V1 rocket pass directly overhead and then see it begin to doodlebug down as the engine cut out  and we entered the shelter and heard it explode nearby.

We lived a short walk from one end of Croydon airport which had become the headquarters of the military Transport Command while Kenley and Biggin Hill were Fighter command aerodromes.

One morning an ambulance arrived to take one of my aunts, who had become deaf, dumb, blind, and bedridden from childhood meningitis to stay with another aunt whose husband’s regiment,  was based at Catterick camp in North Yorkshire. On impulse the three aunts with whom I lived decided I should go in the ambulance, my first journey, and I was terrified. My memory of the journey is that it took a long time, there were two drivers and we stopped midway for the toilet and food that was brought with us.  The aunt lived in a small group of houses  built for officers close to a village and I have one memory  of  running  with one of my younger first cousins  thorough a cornfield that summer on our way to a mass at the Catholic church.

My other memory was when I first found out which of the aunts was my mother when it was decided that I needed to have my first haircut. The aunties of which there were seven in total, with four brothers were born in Gibraltar and spoke Llanito a mixture of Spanish with English words and phrases and words from other Mediterranean lands. Their father had been a civilian employee  foreman in Ordinance at the Naval dockyard, and an accountant for the army at the South Barracks.  His father has been a British soldier who had married a Spanish born girl when stationed in Gibraltar and had returned there to live  after discharge on health grounds and becoming a Royal Hospital Chelsea Pensioner, Outpayments.

In 1944, two of my aunts travelled to Catterick separately train  some days later. One the aunts I thought was my mother as she used to bathe me in tin bath used for clothing washing, as we lived in a house without a bathroom or an inside toilet. The other aunt, the eldest, had become a single a parent with two sons in the army. I remember  when she received the telegram to say one son had died in prisoner of war camp in Borneo after the war in Europe ended, and I remember seeing her other son when he returned in his demob suit from prisoner of war camps in North Africa, Italy and central Europe.

The third aunt was a school teacher and she travelled later when the school term ended. It was during our stay that I worked out from what was being said they the third aunt was my birth mother when the others told her to take me for a haircut, and I presume because no one would recognise her  when  she.  Until 1990 I always assumed  the reason why I was kept as a secret child was because at that time female teachers were still expected to be unmarried and a teacher with an illegitimate child was regarded as unacceptable. It was only in 1990 that before my birth mother’s memory deteriorated further that I pressed her to disclose who my father had been, and she disclosed my  father had been a catholic priest and not until 2018 did I find  compelling evidence that he had become the vicar general of Gibraltar  awarded the Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth.

Of course, the Queen’s parents, as did millions of other parents throughout Britain, put  the welfare of their children first  and only mother’s with pre-school children were evacuated with them, and the Queen and her sister were separated from their  parents at Windsor  while the King and Queen experienced the Blitz and were able to look the Eastend of London in the eye.

Decades later on behalf of  South Tyneside Council  I attended a wartime simulation  training course at the National Civil Defence College where one of team was destroyed in the nuclear explosion in the a city while  individual members in other teams were told their families had also perished or were dying from radiation  but our job  was to remain in post, and try and save as many lives as we could by protecting and distributing the food and water with the help of the army when martial law ended.  At the end of the exercise we were told we had has saved twice as many lives  at one of the courses  but five times fewer than another.

In the exercise the  head of state and some other members of Royal family had survived at an undisclosed destination, but most of the   government and opposition had not which had led Martial Law  until phase two  was achieved with agreement to end hostilities and begin  recovery under civilian direction in the new  normal. 

It is noteworthy that at the height of the epidemic in London our head of state went only as far as Windsor, the heir apparent to Scotland on the Balmoral estate, the Prime Minister recuperated at Chequers and  only Mat Hancock remained with his wife and children in London, continuing to do his duty as best he could and throughout appears to  have been the member of the government who recognised the scale and extent of the problem, put on a brave face has tried to sort out the mess created by the Prime Minister in association with Mr Cummings. On Tuesday when confronted by  vicar who asked if as a consequence of the Cummings defence, anyone fined  for doing similar would be abated, he stumbled, said he would check and personally write, and we learned from the media he was immediately slapped down by number 10 and the Treasury.  Whatever will be  next?

Of course, Mr Cummings was right to take action to protect his child and his wife, as I understand she is a writer  and not a front like worker like the doctors, the nurses, care, and the transport  workers who stayed in post,  and have died, leaving their children alone and  their  others the loved. Mr Cummings has not behaved with honour and the judgement of the Prime Minister should continue to be questioned  by his Cabinet Colleagues and backbenchers, and those in the House of Lords who may have the ear of Her Majesty

Meanwhile, I presume Mr Cummings has worked out the plan to deal with the forensic questioning of the Leader of the opposition by abolishing Prime Ministers Question Time until the crisis is over. 

May  your God help the rest of us.

Colin Smart once a director of social services 1974-1992

A question of honour and the best interests of the country

In 1944, aged 5, as had millions of other children  in 1939 and 1940, I was evacuated to a place of safety, separately  from my single parent mother, a school teacher, who continued to do her duty like millions of others, despite living in an area where there had been 5000 civilian casualties because of our location close to Croydon, Kenley and Biggin Hill aerodromes and where over 140 V1 and V2 rockets exploded. One of my earliest memories is being carried from the house  to the Anderson shelter at the back, in daylight, first hearing a V1 rocket pass directly overhead and then see it begin to doodlebug down as the engine cut out  and we entered the shelter and heard it explode nearby.

We lived a short walk from one end of Croydon airport which had become the headquarters of the military Transport Command while Kenley and Biggin Hill were Fighter command aerodromes.

One morning an ambulance arrived to take one of my aunts, who had become deaf, dumb, blind, and bedridden from childhood meningitis  to stay with another aunt whose husband’s regiment,  was based at Catterick camp in North Yorkshire. On impulse the three aunts with whom I lived decided I should go in the ambulance, my first journey, and I was terrified. My memory of the journey is that it took a long time, there were two drivers and we stopped midway for the toilet and food that was brought with us.  The aunt lived in a small group of houses  built for officers close to a village and I have one memory  of  running  with one of my younger first cousins  thorough a cornfield that summer on our way to a mass at the Catholic church.

My other memory was when I first found out which of the aunts was my mother when it was decided that I needed to have my first haircut. The aunties of which there were seven in total, with four brothers were born in Gibraltar and spoke Llanito a mixture of Spanish with English words and phrases and words from other Mediterranean lands. Their father had been a civilian employee  foreman in Ordinance at the Naval dockyard, and an accountant for the army at the South Barracks.  His father has been a British soldier who had married a Spanish born girl when stationed in Gibraltar and had returned there to live  after discharge on health grounds and becoming a Royal Hospital Chelsea Pensioner, Outpayments.

In 1944, two of my aunts travelled to Catterick separately train  some days later. One the aunts I thought was my mother as she used to bathe me in tin bath used for clothing washing, as we lived in a house without a bathroom or an inside toilet. The other aunt, the eldest, had become a single a parent with two sons in the army. I remember  when she received the telegram to say one son had died in prisoner of war camp in Borneo after the war in Europe ended, and I remember seeing her other son when he returned in his demob suit from prisoner of war camps in North Africa, Italy and central Europe.

The third aunt was a school teacher and she travelled later when the school term ended. It was during our stay that I worked out from what was being said they the third aunt was my birth mother when the others told her to take me for a haircut, and I presume because no one would recognise her  when  she.  Until 1990 I always assumed  the reason why I was kept as a secret child was because at that time female teachers were still expected to be unmarried and a teacher with an illegitimate child was regarded as unacceptable. It was only in 1990 that before my birth mother’s memory deteriorated further that I pressed her to disclose who my father had been, and she disclosed my  father had been a catholic priest and not until 2018 did I find  compelling evidence that he had become the vicar general of Gibraltar  awarded the Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth.

Of course, the Queen’s parents, as did millions of other parents throughout Britain, put  the welfare of their children first  and only mother’s with pre-school children were evacuated with them, and the Queen and her sister were separated from their  parents at Windsor  while the King and Queen experienced the Blitz and were able to look the Eastend of London in the eye.

Decades later on behalf of  South Tyneside Council  I attended a wartime simulation  training course at the National Civil Defence College where one of team was destroyed in the nuclear explosion in the a city while  individual members in other teams were told their families had also perished or were dying from radiation  but our job  was to remain in post, and try and save as many lives as we could by protecting and distributing the food and water with the help of the army when martial law ended.  At the end of the exercise we were told we had has saved twice as many lives  at one of the courses  but five times fewer than another.

Of course, Mr Cummings was right to take action to protect his child and his wife, assuming she was not a front like worker like the doctors, the nurses, care, and the transport  workers who stayed in post,  and have died, leaving their children alone and  their  others the loved. Mr Cummings has not behaved with honour and the judgement of the Prime Minister is in question. May  your God help the rest of us.

Colin Joseph Carmelo Smart born 9.3.39 a Director of Social Services I974-1992.

Mr Dominic Cummings is behaving without honour and a sense of public duty

In 1944, aged 5, as had millions of other children  in 1939 and 1940, I was evacuated to a place of safety, separately  from my single parent mother, a school teacher, who continued to do her duty like millions of others, despite living in an area where there had been 5000 civilian casualties because of our location close to Croydon, Kenley and Biggin Hill aerodromes and where over 140 V1 and V2 rockets exploded. One of my earliest memories is being carried from the house  to the Anderson shelter at the back, in daylight, first hearing a V1 rocket pass directly overhead and then see it begin to doodlebug down as the engine cut out  and we entered the shelter and heard it explode nearby.

We lived a short walk from one end of Croydon airport which had become the headquarters of the military Transport Command while Kenley and Biggin Hill were Fighter command aerodromes.

One morning an ambulance arrived to take one of my aunts, who had become deaf, dumb, blind, and bedridden from childhood meningitis  to stay with another aunt whose husband’s regiment,  was based at Catterick camp in North Yorkshire. On impulse the three aunts with whom I lived decided I should go in the ambulance, my first journey, and I was terrified. My memory of the journey is that it took a long time, there were two drivers and we stopped midway for the toilet and food that was brought with us.  The aunt lived in a small group of houses  built for officers close to a village and I have one memory  of  running  with one of my younger first cousins  thorough a cornfield that summer on our way to a mass at the Catholic church.

My other memory was when I first found out which of the aunts was my mother when it was decided that I needed to have my first haircut. The aunties of which there were seven in total, with four brothers were born in Gibraltar and spoke Llanito a mixture of Spanish with English words and phrases and words from other Mediterranean lands. Their father had been a civilian employee  foreman in Ordinance at the Naval dockyard, and an accountant for the army at the South Barracks.  His father has been a British soldier who had married a Spanish born girl when stationed in Gibraltar and had returned there to live  after discharge on health grounds and becoming a Royal Hospital Chelsea Pensioner, Outpayments.

In 1944, two of my aunts travelled to Catterick separately train  some days later. One the aunts I thought was my mother as she used to bathe me in tin bath used for clothing washing, as we lived in a house without a bathroom or an inside toilet. The other aunt, the eldest, had become a single a parent with two sons in the army. I remember  when she received the telegram to say one son had died in prisoner of war camp in Borneo after the war in Europe ended, and I remember seeing her other son when he returned in his demob suit from prisoner of war camps in North Africa, Italy and central Europe.

The third aunt was a school teacher and she travelled later when the school term ended. It was during our stay that I worked out from what was being said they the third aunt was my birth mother when the others told her to take me for a haircut, and I presume because no one would recognise her  when  she.  Until 1990 I always assumed  the reason why I was kept as a secret child was because at that time female teachers were still expected to be unmarried and a teacher with an illegitimate child was regarded as unacceptable. It was only in 1990 that before my birth mother’s memory deteriorated further that I pressed her to disclose who my father had been, and she disclosed my  father had been a catholic priest and not until 2018 did I find  compelling evidence that he had become the vicar general of Gibraltar  awarded the Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth.

Of course, the Queen’s parents, as did millions of other parents throughout Britain, put  the welfare of their children first  and only mother’s with pre-school children were evacuated with them, and the Queen and her sister were separated from their  parents at Windsor  while the King and Queen experienced the Blitz and were able to look the Eastend of London in the eye.

The day when Michael Gove said

One  Saturday evening sitting at the end of a row in the stalls of the Garrick Theatre in London, Michael Gove arrived to take his seat as the curtain rose on the National Theatre production of “This House”. He could not know that three years later the new Johnson government would find itself dependent on the refusal of the leader of the Liberal Democrats to help install Jeremy Corbyn as an interim Prime Minister to ensure a Brexit compromise.

Within weeks Mr Gove became a senior member of a government with the opportunity to do what and when it wished, subject only to the rules of our Parliamentary democracy.

Then on the day before Britain formally left the European Economic Community, the World Health Organisation announced that countries needed to urgently address the potential impact of what was a matter of days later to be known as the Novel SARS 2 COVID-19 pandemic.

Earlier today on the third significant Andrew Marr programme on successive Sundays, Mr Gove disclosed that it had been necessary to issue an ultimatum to European Commission negotiating team that it must renegotiate the arrangements for fishing in British coastal waters. Without doing so the British government  will lose all credibility among the voters who have provided its present authority and power.

Unfortunately for the government, and fortunately for the Opposition Political Parties, a greater test of will and nerve has been self-created by the arch risk taking team of Johnson and Cummings in persuading British teachers to begin to increase the number of children attending schools from June 1^st, continuing to do so until the commencement of the formal school holidays when there will be more time to organise the new normal  in September.

It was during a persistent questioning by Andrew Marr that Michael Gove became the first Government or Opposition leader to admit that the only way to remove all risk of contracting the virus is to stay in complete lock in at home, where I am in my  66th day. 

Nationally and internationally a form of lock in became necessary to prevent the escalation of the killer virus beyond political control and I shall be writing separately  about the need for this in the right way and time, and the necessity for national and international comparative inquisitions of what happened to learn how to cope better when the next pandemic occurs.

As the Secretary of State for Health said recently this is not the occasion for who to blame but how we can all work together to fix it.

In a situation where an effective vaccination to prevent death may not be created, or become available until sometime in 2021, after the most likely period for a second runaway spread which is already happening in some countries beyond the wealthiest members of the groups of seven and the twenty,  continuation of universal lockdowns is no longer desirable or practical.

In the meantime, it is necessary, as it has been for many already, to set aside immediate personal welfare and that families, in the interests of the majority. The responsibility of government is to limit the individual risks as far as possible but if good government in any democracy is to survive then many must volunteer to do their duty, irrespective of the personal risk.

Those like me shut away at home in safety, of sound mind if not of limb, and in a position to have food and medication delivered  to our door, have also a part to play.  First not to put anyway else at greater risk and danger. Secondly, to reduce the likely severity of the virus if at some point there is need to do go out and the virus is contracted.

Seven years ago, I put on weight which put me well over the body mass index of 40 which places one in the clinically extremely vulnerable category and  falling within the scope of those where legislation enables government to enforce self-shielding for as long as becomes necessary.

The outcome of self-indulgence and a lack of self-discipline was that a life-long respiratory problem, where before leaving primary school, I persuaded my care mother to take me home from hospital just before my adenoids and tonsils were removed, became worse, and I needed to use a CPAP machine (Continuous Positive Airways Pressure) every night when I sleep. I also developed uncomplicated Diabetes.

I did reduce my weight by nearly three stone and twice, the last occasion in November, I came close to  breaking through the mental barrier of going even lower. My first reaction on working out in early March that the odds of survival if contracting the virus were poor, at best 50 50, was to eat chocolate, cakes and other goodies with the inevitable consequence of quickly moving further away from the self-imposed barrier and it then was a struggle to go into reverse.  I then had to remember what had also been achieved during the past five years.

One evening when at this desk I developed excruciating back pain and later managed to get myself upstairs to bed. The following  morning, I could not get myself up eventually getting on to the floor and getting myself up remembering what I had seen when attending a swimming event at the Paralympics in London in 2012. Moved at the time, and still inspired by the  courage of the young athletes without a limb or restricted to a wheel chair getting themselves in and out pool before taking the risk of finishing last, I thought if they managed so can I.

It was easier than done, especially when after the  difficult to cope pain left, radiating pain into my thighs  restricted mobility and the  basics of looking after myself personal independence became threatened. A specialist warned that with my age and weight I would be able  function most days, but some might be found  difficult. I followed the exercises recommended by a physiotherapist daily, continued to make family visit car journeys and to organise train travel for visits to Croydon and central London and  then one morning after using a bed frame to get out of bed and stand up I discovered the radiating pain  had  disappeared.

It has come back on two occasions, once for a week, and once just for two days.  On both occasions I did not panic and remembered to do what I did before. Getting my weight down to appropriate for my height  proved a goal beyond me until watching what can happen if the virus becomes severe. Today it is a matter of when i  can look again at my  body with pride. 

Playing a form of Russian Roullete with my life

Since March 9^th week, expecting to receive an NHS letter requiring me to do so,  but relieved when I did not,  I have remained at home not going out for exercise, arranging for a supermarket delivery and for an online pharmacy to post  my medication.  

When it seemed there was going to be a change in approach in the position of those in the separate category of clinically vulnerable and those extremely vulnerable I decided to contact the General Practice where I am registered for advice. The response was

Thank you for your email.
There has been much confusion over which patients are the very highest risk and need to "shield" and those who are high risk and need to take care with social distancing.

Your respiratory condition, sleep apnoea and weight are chronic conditions, none of which fall into the "highest risk/shielding" category, but still put you in the vulnerable or high risk category.

You should be following this information -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/full-guidance-on-staying-at-home-and-away-from-others

The fact that you use a CPAP machine is not the reason why the respiratory condition is not specifically mentioned. It just is not one of the listed conditions with or without CPAP.

It seems reasonable that you continue to remain at home whilst able to do so. However, it could be a long time before a vaccine is available. If you do need to go out for any reason then I would advise you follow the guidance to try and minimise your risk.

I hope this is helpful,

Yesterday morning the government withdrew its full guidance on staying at home by what is in the Command Paper- Our Plan to Recovery but which has not been adopted by the devolved governments in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales although I assume we all have the health issues to varying degrees divided between the two categories and where the United Kingdom government appears to be now playing a form of Russian Roulette with my life and those of others in similar position to me.

Could the Johnson led Government have saved more lives from the Sars 2 Covid 19 pandemic?

The 6^th century Chinese philosopher and writer, Lao Tuzi said that those who know, do not speak, and those who speak, do not know.

Because of  the roles I have played during my 81 years, I know more than many except that my lifelong memory recall problem means I cannot immediately remember without some form of recognition material all that I once knew.

It was not until 1981 and 1982 when participating in a judicial led and managed independent inquiry and drafted the majority report of findings that I learned that without all the available contemporary records it is difficult to reach the same judgement anyone with similar access will also make when attempting to chronicle what happened prior to an event, coming to a judgement if the event could have been avoided, and if so who was,  or were responsible for what could have been avoided. 

I did not  speak of my role,  or knew it was known outside of official circles until three decades later when my attention was drawn to an article in the Spectator weekly magazine, written by Auberon Waugh in 1983, in which he attempted to explain why two reports had been written, saying incorrectly that I had written the majority report.

In fact, I had spent six months going through all the documentation again, in addition to my day job as a Director of Social Services, at the request of the two other non-lawyers on the panel, also named by Auberon Waugh, a National Health Service Consultant Paediatrician and a NHS Chief Area Nursing officer, and who had then re-drafted the submission, adding recommendations which was then sent to the commissioning authorities for circulation to core participants and lawyers representing other witnesses so they could advise on any matters of fact. None were received prior to publication or subsequently.

In a separate article to follow I will explain relevant aspects of the background to what happened  resulting in two reports being published, the only instance in the 81 reports published between 1945 and 1999 on inquiries concerning the abuse of children in residential care, foster homes or domestic homes, listed by Corby, Doig and Roberts in their academic study which focused on “Public Inquiries into the Abuse of Children in Residential Care, Published by Jessica Kingsley in 2001.

The article makes the point that the findings reached in any form of investigation are dependent on the chairperson and members of the panel and in particular the  individual or individuals  who draft any report, findings and recommendation for consideration by the panel. This point is made with confidence having been recruited as an ad hoc Inspector of Social Services to help form the Drug Advisory Service for the Department of Health where I am prohibited from discussing the behind the scenes work, have signed the Official Secrets Acts, but where reports were submitted to the Secretary of State with copies retained in the Library of the House of Commons. The big secret which can be divulged is that I learned quickly after being appointed a senior officer in the local government service that it as important to read all the documentation, to question its  accuracy and  judgements and to discuss the minutes of any meeting in which  I had contributed with the officer responsible for drafting the minutes  before doing so with the officer responsible for the formal circulation. This became essential as a local authority chief officer and discovering that minutes could reflect the perspective of officers instead of the intention of the democratically elected politicians which as a democrat, irrespective of party political outlook of the politicians seemed to be the right thing to do, as well as  ensuring that what the politicians wanted to happen did, and in the way they hoped.

On Friday May 1^st 2020, I was thrilled to listen to the Secretary of State for Health say that when things did not happen, he and the present government did not spend time working out the why and who to blame, but posed one question: What do we have to do to fix it? He then took no credit for arranging for a total of 100000 individuals to receive tests to establish if they had contracted the latest novel strain of Coronavirus but detailed the wide range of interests and individuals who had worked together to achieve the target and who had done so not because of government threat or personal reward but because they also considered it important and wanted to do so. It is that collective unity of purpose, often involving personal sacrifice, which wins a war and in this instance will defeat a worldwide invisible enemy.

Having said this, I also believe there is evidence that more British lives could have been saved from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus officially as,  Sars  2 Covid-19, or Covid-19 for short, if different and better decisions had been taken by the Johnson Government and their advisors, although the main responsibility rests on those who responsible for the transfer of public service funding to private profit.

Also three decades ago, I attended virtual reality training at the  Civil Defence College with the task of limiting the number of deaths in the period  after a nuclear weapon had detonated in part of a major city and with the help of the military we had to manage the available resources which included preventing looters gaining access to food storage and distribution centres, including from those seeking access for families who as a consequence of their injuries could not be saved.

At the end of the exercise there was a computerised assessment of the collective performance of the  participating teams. We were told how many lives we could have saved if better decisions had been taken. In our insistence we  had performed close to the average with a loss of 75000 additional lives in a city of 500000 6.6% and which projected to an estimated national population over 67 million becomes 10 million additional casualties. Our performance was average on a spread from  3.3 million to 20 million. Against a worst case modelled scenario of  .5 million for Covid-19 in some modelling projections based on  herd immunity with no other  intervention, if the Government is able to limit British deaths to under 100,000 this will be a great achievement. The total already in the United States of North America is above this number and rising.

On the Andrew Marr programme Sunday May 3^rd,  the chief government statistician explained that that comparisons between individual countries would only be possible when the total number of all deaths for each month and  year of the pandemic could be compared to the number originally forecast, analysis was possible of the relationship of these to the pandemic and to other factors such as the ability of the health services to respond to the normal range health issues including mental health issues and to accidents.  There is already evidence that countries with high levels of car usage are showing dramatic reductions in car accidents. There will also be differences between countries with densely concentrated populations and those predominantly rural.

According to the official published programme script Andrew Marr said, “It sounds to me as if what you’re saying, that we may be heading indeed for the worst death toll in Europe at the moment.”  Professor Sir Ian Diamond replied “I wouldn’t say that at all. And I would say that making international comparisons, Andrew, is an unbelievably difficult thing to do. We, in this country, have in my opinion – and let me be clear, I would say this wouldn’t it – but I think we have the best reporting, most transparent reporting and the most timely reporting, because we include death registrations and we’ve been pushing our death registration reporting as fast as we possibly can.

And then even after you look at the actual deaths, it’s incredibly important to recognise the context. So deaths are going to be more concentrated, as I’ve already indicated, in inner cities. If you have a rural country, then it’s likely that your death rates will be lower. I’m not saying that we’re at the bottom of the league, potential league tables; it’s almost impossible to calculate a league table, but I’m not prepared to say that we’re heading for the top.

On the same programme, the Johnson Government Transport Minister, Grant Shapps, expanded a comment made during Question Time on Thursday evening April  28^th that the scale of SARS 2 Covid-19,  was different from the 2009 Swine flu upon which 15 planning and preparedness epidemiology and behavioural science documents, over 700 pages were created, between 2012 and 2014. The implications is that factors such as the switch from public service to private profit was not an issue, or the decision not to publish the findings, and presumably not to implement recommendations of the 2016 preparedness exercise undertaken by the Government led by Teresa May.

Mr Shapps  said “ Well, I think there are many lessons that can be learned. But what’s interesting is when we look at this idea of the pandemic, which has been for many years sort of high on the risk register, the sort of pandemic that most people were thinking of was an influenza pandemic of the regular type. But this clearly has taken the world by storm in a completely different way to anything that people imagined for 100 years. So – since the Spanish flu. So again, you know, let’s have a full proper look at all of these things” (Programme script).

In making his point Grant Shapps appeared to me to set aside the 800 plus of pages of documents prepared from 2011 to create  comprehensive and coherent general preparedness in any form of emergency including from terrorism.

In contrast the lead technical officer for the World Health Organisation, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove was clear that the organisation together with epidemiologist and emergency planners throughout the world had repeated warned that the present pandemic was predicted and that others were  more likely in the future, unless preventive action was taken.  Quoting from the programme script she said.

“In my team and the teams that are working globally on high threat respiratory pathogens, we were preparing for something like this because it’s not a matter of it, it’s a matter of when. And it’s very important that we work with populations of people who are working at the – what we call the animal-human interface. So, these are individuals that either work with wild animals or work with domesticated animals or who work in forests where they come in contact.

On the longer term we need to invest in public health, we need to invest in people and our public health systems across all of our countries to ensure that we have the fundamentals in place. People that can test, people that can do contact tracing, people that can care for sick individuals. All of that should be happening now and making an investment in public health measures is good for everyone. If you’re not using it for the next disease X, you’re using it for influenza, you’re using it for other diseases that are circulating in the countries and it will help save lives.  (my highlighting)

In general fairness to governments, including the British, the first formal call for action by the World Health Organisation was on January 30^th, 2020 declaring that the outbreak was a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and only later that it was it categorised as  a Pandemic.

Before the crisis developed in Italy in February, the focus of the World Health organisation was  on the countries close to China where cases were first identified, in the republic of Korea, Thailand, Japan and  Singapore. According to the rolling online updated list of actions and statements by the World Health Organisation, the next focus was on helping countries in the African continent to prepare.

By the end February every country was advised to help with the research and deal with Mass Gatherings and  travellers who became ill, followed by the need for Personal Protection Equipment, Workplace Readiness, the provision of Medical Oxygen and Ventilators, the availability with of Laboratories with the right equipment for testing, the action to be taken at Airports and Borders, the  training of Health workers and the provision of Beds to deal with Critical Cases. Attention was then given to the need for public information with advice on self-protection measures.

Because of studies and plans created during the 2010-2015 Coalition government, Britain should have been one the nations, best placed, to limit the number of inevitable deaths.

It will be important to know when the British Civil Service and the members of SAGE commenced to monitor the information and concerns of the World Health Organisation together with inter-governmental intelligence and inter-professional; when individual Ministers and the government collectively were alerted and briefed on existing science based information; the findings  and lessons  from recent pandemics; and the national emergency procedures in the context of the recommendations from the 2016 exercise.

I do not know when the Scientific Advisory group  was asked to first meet on the issue, and if its members were all in place before Ministers could ask for reports to be considered at the Cabinet Office Briefing Room meetings. In October 2012, a 68 page document was published on its composition and role and it met in relation to the Swine Flu pandemic 2009-2010 and on several occasions since in relation to other causes for international concern such as Ebola. The present Government internet page for SAGE contains 35 reference points of published documentation in relation to Covid-19. There is also information on the present  membership but not to the minutes of meetings.

Before detailing the comprehensive and detailed nature of the documentation available to Ministers once they were first informed that dangerous novel(new) virus was loose in the community there is need to remind that for the past three years the whole of government was reorganised to carry out the democratic referendum decision to leave to the European Economic Community and that the formal decision to leave with a transition period ending on 31 December of this year, took place on January 31^st, the day after the World Health Organisation declared the International Concern.

The most important document already available on February 1^st is the Department of Health Summary of Pandemic Influenza and its Mitigation Scientific evidence based review). This summarises the information  of 13 separate publications  divided between the behavioural sciences and the epidemiology.

The review covers all the issues which have dominated international media 24/7 since and which in Britain this week will focus on the strategy for moving into a new normal until a death preventing treatment and a vaccination  becomes available, particularly for those who because of age or other health conditions have a  high chance  of not surviving

Behavioural science

·        Health care workers willingness to work during a  pandemic 30 pages.

·        The impact of school closure on an influenza pandemic 151 pages

·        Impact of mass gatherings 72 pages

·        Demographic and attitudinal determinants of protective behaviours 28 pages

·        Principles of effective communication 18 pages

·        The National Pandemic Flu Service 22 pages

·        Factors associated with the uptake of vaccination 55 pages

The medical science issues covered 

·        The use of antivirals 34 pages

·        The use of antibiotics 23 pages

·        The use of vaccines 35 pages

·        Routes of transmission  81 pages

·        The use of facemasks and respirators  81 pages

·        Respirators and hand hygiene 39 pages

Approximately 700 pages in total.

In 2014 the Cabinet Office, following the Civil Contingencies Acts 2004 reissued a series of planning documents on Emergency Preparedness based on work published mainly in 2012.  The plans were tested in 2016 The government refused to make public the recommendation contained in the evaluation report

·        Chapter 1 Introduction  18 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 2 Co-operation 66 pages   (March 2012)

·        Chapter 3 Formal information sharing 32 pages  (March 2012)

·        Chapter 4 Local responder risk assessment duty 64 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 5 Emergency Planning 73 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 6 Business Continuity Management 38 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 7 Communicating with the Public 60 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 8 Business continuity advice and assistance to business and the voluntary sector 53 pages March 2012

·        Chapter 9 London 12 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 10 Scotland 6 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 11 Wales 11 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 12 Northern Ireland 11 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 13 Support and Challenge  19 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 14 The Role of the Voluntary Sector 6 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 15 Other sector that should be involved in emergency planning 9 pages (October 2011)

·        Chapter 16 Collaboration and Co-operation between Local Resilience Forums in England  6 pages (March 2012)

·        Chapter 19 The Fit with Other Legislation 25 pages (February 2011)

·        Annex 7A Communicating with the public New Coordination centre 3 pages (March2012)

·        Annex 7B Duty to communicate with the public The ten step cycle 18 pages published

·        Further reading 9 pages (October 2011)

·        Glossary 30 pages (March 2012)

And related content

·        Emergency response and recovery 1 page introduction to the 233 page documents issued 5.4.2010 revised 29.10.2013  and which also lists some  other 60 references  via two other  introduction  page,  one covering National Security issues.

·        Preparation and planning for emergencies responsibilities of responder agencies and others 20 February 2013 13 pages and which includes  further  references, most already mentioned.

·        Business Continuity Planning 19 November 2014 2 pages  references to 32page documents  and to Counter Terrorism perspective

·        Emergency planning and preparedness exercises and training published 20^th February 2013 and updated 11 November 2014 11 pages and includes a number of  further references

·        National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2017 Edition 2 pages refers to 71 page documents

Over 1500 pages in the combined total

In the context of the pros and cons of holding a Public or Other form of Inquiry my next article will go through the questions and issues where at some point answers should be attempted.

This week we celebrate VE day 75 years  ago. At one point in my wartime childhood the majority of the people of Wallington Surrey, now part of the London Borough of Sutton assembled in Stafford Road just around the corner from where the family lived to light torches and walked to a park in neighbouring Carshalton where a giant bonfire had been assembly on top of which was an effigy of Adolf Hitler. The adults then threw the torches, and everyone cheered when the effigy caught fire and disappeared.

The wartime memory reminds that the 1939 Government fell and was replaced by a national one because some national politicians and their supporters had ignored the evidence of German rearmament, some because they were sympathetic to fascism, some because there was profit from the arms trade, and  many others because they supported the wish of the Prime Minister to avoid a conflict which would cost tens if millions more lives than would otherwise be lost. That is the dilemma national politicians sometime face. It is never a question of a lot of deaths or none but how many.